Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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856
FXUS66 KOTX 221603
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
903 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: The main changes have been to adjust the areal
coverage of pcpn and sky cover based on the radar loops, vsbl
satellite and sfc obs. The flash food watch for the E Slopes of
the Cascades will remain en effect for recent burn
scars...including the Carlton complex...Mills Canyon...and the
chiwaukum complex. However, given the easterly flow....the
strongest storms are anticipated along the crest of the Cascades.
Blended PW shows anomalous moisture over the Cascades. Slow
steering flow will also help to produce localized, prolonged heavy
downpours. It still looks like the potential for thunder this
afternoon is on track for most of the rest of Ern wa and the Cntrl
Idaho Panhandle as well. The exception may be the N Idaho
Panhandle where the cap is a bit stronger. The high CAPE/weak deep
layer shear profiles support an enhanced heavy downpour threat for
most thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Small hail is also
possible. The highest threat areas will be near the Cascades as
well as the Lewiston/Pullman region and the Cntrl Idaho
Panhandle. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Scattered high based showers will continue to drift
west from the vcnty of KMWH toward the KEAT area this morning,
with mainly light rain expected. Convection will again develop
late today, after 20z. Expect a similar trend as experienced on
Thursday with activity starting in the Blue mountains and Camas
Prairie and than drifting west toward the Cascades. Today
anticipate more development in the Cascades under the easterly
low level flow and the approaching shortwave from the northwest.
The HRRR shows convection will begin to fire over the high terrain
of the Cascades and Blue Mountains after 20z Fri. Gusty outflow
winds and brief heavy rain will be the main threats from
thunderstorms, which should decrease after 03z. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  80  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  79  53  79  52 /  10  10  10  10  20  30
Pullman        78  49  73  47  75  49 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       81  56  79  54  82  56 /  30  20  20  20  20  20
Colville       86  53  83  55  82  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Sandpoint      81  50  80  48  77  50 /  10   0  10  10  20  20
Kellogg        81  50  79  49  78  50 /  20  10  30  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  56  84  55  83  54 /  40  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      82  59  83  58  82  57 /  60  30  10  10  20  20
Omak           86  53  85  54  83  53 /  20  20  10  10  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




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