Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 231127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures continue this afternoon with dry weather and
local breezy winds. A cold front will bring a threat for showers
and isolated thunderstorms tonight into early Thursday mainly over
the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. This
will be followed by gusty westerly winds Thursday. After cooler
weather Thursday and Friday, the heat will return for the weekend
and early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday: An upper trough off the coast will
remain off the coast today with southwest flow aloft. The
approaching upper trough will help draw up increased mid level
moisture over Oregon. Increased mid level moisture combined with
mid level instability will lead to an increased threat for high
based showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight. A cold front
passage will also provide some added lift.  Models differ as to
where the best threat will occur. The latest NCAR Ensemble
guidance as well as the 00z GFS/NAM solutions have shifted west
with the best threat, and thus POP`s have been increased for the
eastern third of Washington. Some solutions even show isolated
convection developing this evening over Mission Ridge and
Wenatchee area tracking northeast towards Republic overnight.
There is less support for this so forecast in this area was kept
dry. Overall instability is only marginal for thunderstorms so not
expected a significant amount of lightning which is good news
given the very dry state of the fuels. The lightning does still
remain a concern however for new fire starts. The band of elevated
convection shifts over the Idaho Panhandle early Thursday morning
before exiting the area. Drier post frontal westerly flow envelops
the area on Thursday. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate
concerns for fire spread with any new or existing fires. At this
time...does not look like winds will be strong enough for fire
weather highlights...except for possibly the Wenatchee area and
Kittitas Valley. JW

Thursday night through Wednesday: The winds will decline Thursday
night as the gradient loosens in the region. A quiet weather
pattern is expected for the remainder of the period as a zonal
flow pattern will transition into a weak ridge over the weekend.
There is going to be plenty of sunshine and no precip expected.
With the sunshine, temperatures will be on the warm side of normal
with highs in hovering around the 90s and lows in the 50s. /JDC


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Elevated smoke from Oregon will continue to push
through Washington and Idaho, with the highest concentrations in
southern Washington. Mid and high clouds will move in from the
south and thicken through the day. Tonight the chance for showers
will increase over the eastern third of Washington and north Idaho
as a cold front moves through the region. Could also see a few
thunderstorms but confidence if any of the TAF sites being
impacted is low. CIGS are expected to remain VFR.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        88  64  80  51  79  52 /  10  40  20   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  89  60  80  48  79  48 /  10  50  40   0   0   0
Pullman        87  61  78  46  78  47 /  10  40  30   0   0   0
Lewiston       94  66  86  55  85  56 /  10  40  30   0   0   0
Colville       90  62  83  46  82  47 /  10  20  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      87  58  79  42  78  43 /  10  50  50   0   0   0
Kellogg        86  59  76  48  76  46 /  10  40  60   0   0   0
Moses Lake     91  63  85  47  83  50 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      90  65  82  52  83  60 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           93  59  86  51  84  54 /   0  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...&&

$$



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