Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 031802
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
202 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTERNOON FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION POTENTIAL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
SLATED FOR EVENING PASSAGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. MODELS
HAVE...AS USUAL...STRUGGLED WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY RESULTING
FROM BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES...ALTHOUGH MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED AS ANTICIPATED.

NEVERTHELESS...FILTERED INSOLATION WITH LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS
WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY BALANCE
WITH THE SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORMS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR STILL SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF
AXIS...SUBSIDENCE AREA OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING ACROSS
OHIO AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK PROGNOSIS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
COMING FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL DOMINATE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A
SHORT TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT. ANY DEGRADED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
RAPIDLY IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITHA FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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