Area Forecast Discussion
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503
FXUS61 KPBZ 242329
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
729 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures are expected to be above normal through the seven
day forecast. Rain is expected Sunday into Sunday night, and
again Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Only made some tweaks to sky cover and the hourly temp/dewpoint
curves for the evening. HRRR/RAP are suggesting that a few
showers could sneak into the I-80 corridor prior to 12Z. Will
watch trends and possibly add a small PoP to this area in the
next update.  Forecast on track otherwise.

Previous discussion...

A warm front will remain nearly stationary over New York
tonight, eventually dropping a bit farther south into
Pennsylvania on Saturday. Expect that any precipitation tonight
should remain well north of the forecast area, with chance pops
dropping into the Interstate 80 corridor by Saturday afternoon.
These pops may need to be spread farther south, but with some
model differences, have decided to be conservative with PoPs for
now. Models are in pretty good agreement that it will be a warm
24 hour period. Tonight`s lows should only drop into the 50s,
while high temperatures tomorrow will be dependent on the
eventual position of the front. Current forecast brings northern
counties "only" into the lower 60s, while south of Interstate
70, 70s are expected once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
While low pressure over the Plains drifts northeastward through
the period, a front will rotate through the region Sunday into
Sunday night. Have continued the categorical pops in the
forecast, along with a chance of thunder Sunday afternoon and
evening. Showers may linger into Monday, primarily across
eastern counties. The frontal passage will do little to change
temperatures, with values remaining well above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak low pressure will race across the area Monday night into
Tuesday, bringing another round of showers to the area. High
pressure behind the low will yield northerly winds, ushering
in some cooler air. Even so, temperatures should not drop below
seasonal norms. Dry weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday,
with another round of showers forecast for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected tonight under shortwave ridging.
Moisture pooling along a slow SWD moving cold front should
result in MVFR ceilings over NW PA by Saturday morning,
continuing through the day. Ceilings should lower elsewhere as
the front moves further south, though VFR levels should be
maintained.

A low level jet across nrn OH/nw PA should result in a LLWS
potential overnight until the jet diminishes Sat morning.

Outlook...
Restrictions are possible N of PIT Sat night with a warm front.
Widespread restrictions are likely Sunday/Sunday night with
crossing low pressure, and again with a Monday night/Tuesday
cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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