Area Forecast Discussion
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611
FXUS61 KPBZ 230011
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
711 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather will continue until the passage of a Saturday cold
front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The early eve update featured adjustments to cloud cover and
hourly trends.

Residual showers to the north of I 80 ended quickly early this
evening as the supporting jet streak shifted eastward and
shortwave ridging ensued. The moisture surge on the van of
another weak shortwave will support increasing low cloudiness,
and possible some isolated showers during the predawn hours.

That weak trough may generate additional scattered showers on
Thursday, but weak support with a weak wind field and instability
will be the limiting precip factors. The chance for showers
should suffice for the precip forecast.

Warm temperatures continue under the warm advection regime. See
climate section for record highs which may be in jeopardy.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Any scattered showers will taper from south to north as a warm
front lifts northward across the area on Thursday night. This
process will plant us firmly in the warm sector for much of
Friday, and will result in dry weather and a peaking of the warm
temperatures. Highs on Friday will soar into the 70s for the
majority.

The models are continuing the slower trend with the well-
advertised frontal passage, which is now slated for Saturday
morning or early afternoon. Have slowed PoP progression a bit
as a result. The timing of the passage would still not seem to
favor much of a severe threat given the expected lack of
buoyancy, but with strong flow and plenty of shear to enhance
updrafts, any storms may need to be monitored for wind gusts.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Behind the cold front, wraparound showers will drop in coverage
Saturday night, with snow showers possible. Sunday will likely
be the only completely dry day in the extended forecast. Model
guidance is then a little uncertain with timing of a system on
Monday before having surprisingly good agreement on Wednesday.
Have stuck close to the Superblend through this portion of the
forecast. After slightly below normal temperatures on Sunday,
high temperatures will increase through the period, with 60s
once again a possibility by the first day of March.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Condition deterioration is expected late tonight as another
disturbances enhances overall ascent and improves the moisture
supply. IFR ceilings and some isolated to scattered showers are
forecast for early Thursday with increasing confidence.

Late day improvement is anticipated with passage of the supporting
shortwave, although MVFR, to low-end VFR stratocu may linger.

.OUTLOOK...
Widespread restrictions are likely with the approach and passage
of a cold front on Friday night and earlyu Saturday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for climate sites:

            Thu              Fri
          --------        --------
PIT       70 (1922)       70 (1875,1906)
ZZV       64 (2000)       70 (1961)
MGW       68 (1996)       75 (1975)
DUJ       63 (1985)       60 (1985)
HLG       62 (2000)       63 (2016)
PHD       69 (1975)       66 (1985)

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
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