Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 130603
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
103 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL PERTAIN TO SNOW BANDS THE WILL COVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS THE ARCTIC AIR TAKES HOLD. IT WILL BE A
TRICKY FORECAST AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IS ALSO DRYING THE LOWER
LEVELS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS HEAD THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE WSW TO COVER THE RIDGES IN WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MODIFIED WITH A BLEND OF HIRES
GUIDANCE.

BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE
EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DOUBLE LAKE BAND FURTHER SOUTH...SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS
EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY TROUGH WITH A MORE DISTINCT NNW WIND SHIFT IS
CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM JUST NORTH OF KDUJ TO JUST NORTH OF KPHD.
THIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPORARILY DROPPING
MANY SITES TO IFR AS IT DOES SO OVERNIGHT. BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...THE HEAVIEST OF WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR KFKL. OTHER AREAS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF INTO SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510-
     512>514.

&&

$$


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