Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200115
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
915 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WIND WARMS TEMPERATURES UP. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE TO SKY COVER.

BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...BUT RESULTING SELY FLOW
HAS ADVECTED ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACRS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

LOW PRES DIGGING TWD THE NRN LAKES WL VEER WIND TO THE S ON
SATURDAY WITH WARM ADVCTN DRIVING HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MSTR WL INCR SAT NGT ON SWLY WIND AHEAD OF A CDFNT THAT IS XPCD
TO CROSS THE RGN ON SUN. THE INCRD MSTR WL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO AGGRESSIVELY...AND SHWRS FORMING ALONG THE ADVNG
FRONT MAY MOVE INTO FAR NWRN ZONES AFTR MIDNGT.

500 MB SHRTWV TROF IS PROGGED TO ACQUIRE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT ON
SUN AS IT CROSSES THE SRN GRTLKS. THE CONCURRENCE OF INCRG SHEAR...MSTR
ADVCTN AHEAD OF CDFNT...AND INCRG LIFT IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
DVLPMT OF CNVCTV LINE ALONG THE SURGING FRONT.

THE INTENSITY OF THE LINE WL DEPEND UPON AMT OF SUNSHINE THAT
OCCURS. PROVIDED DP CNVCTN DVLPS...THERE WILL BE A POTL FOR DMGG
WIND GUSTS WITH ORGANIZED CNVCTV LINE SEGMENTS. THIS POTL WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO ATTM.

POPS WERE INCRD CONSIDERABLY ON SUN IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDS.
BEST CHC FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE SUN AFTN AS CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.
ANY SHWRS WL SHIFT EWD BY EARLY EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME LAKE-EFFECT
SHWRS FORMING ACRS NRN ZONES SUN NGT.

SFC HIGH WL BLD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND BRING AN END TO
PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL ST/SC AT FKL AND DUJ IN THE PREDAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WL CONT WITH SFC WIND PRECLUDING FOG WHILE VEERING TO
THE SOUTH...AND GUSTING NR 20 KT BY SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

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