Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 282153
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
553 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS ALREADY DYING A SWIFT DEATH AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS WANING. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY DID
MANAGE TO MIX DOWN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL DRYING THERE
SUCH THAT CUMULUS REALLY HARDLY EVEN DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEAR FOR A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE
OF HIGH CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF CLOUDS FROM A DECAYING MCS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL RH PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD ENVELOPE THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THEY ARE LIKELY
TRANSLUCENT DUE TO THEIR THIN CHARACTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
FORECAST WILL ONLY BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

A VERY DRY LOWER TWO-THIRDS OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THIS WILL MEAN EFFECTIVE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN AS A
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. IT WILL ALSO MEAN YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY
COMFORTABLY SLEEPING NIGHT. IT SURE SEEMS LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN
UTTERLY COMMON THE SECOND HALF OF THE SUMMER AS WE CONTINUE TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A
FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT LIFT DOESNT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT
THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN
THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AND LIGHT WIND CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR NEAR-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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