Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301947
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
247 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING WINTRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCT-NMRS SNW SHWRS WL CONT ACRS THE AREA INTO EARLY EVE...THOUGH
SHOULD RAPIDLY DMNSH AFT SUNSET AS HIGH PRES BLDS FURTHER INTO
THE RGN AND SBSDNC INCRS. COLD TEMPS ARE EXPD TNGT ALSO...WITH WND
CHILLS APCHG -10 TO -15 FOR AREAS NE-SE OF PIT WHERE WND CHILL
ADVYS WERE MAINTAINED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES SHOULD CONT DRY WEA INTO SAT EVE. A DIGGING UPR TROF IS
PROGGED TO ADVN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TRACK ACRS THE GT LKS AND
OH VLY RGN SUN INTO MON. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACRS THE TN AND OH VLY RGNS ALSO. THIS WL
SPREAD SNW INTO THE RGN LT SAT NGT THRU MON MRNG WITH DEEP
AVAILABLE MSTR AND OMEGA.

WITH A CLOSED 850MB LOW...A MORE PROLONGED PCPN EVENT IS EXPD AS
OPPOSED TO THE OPEN SYSTEM EARLIER IN THE WK. WITH ENOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNW OR A SNW/ICE MIX...ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LEFT AREAS GENLY S OF I 70 OUT OF THE
WATCH...EXCEPT FOR THE WV/MD RIDGES...AS ENOUGH WRM AIR IS EXPD TO
WRAP IN AHD OF THE LOW TO ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNW MIX OR EVEN A PD OF
ALL RAIN. AREAS BETWEEN I 70- AND I 80 COULD SEE ENOUGH WRM AIR
ALOFT FOR FRZG RAIN TO MIX IN AT TIMES AS WELL. GENLY FOLLOWED A
SREF/GFS/ECMWF MDL BLEND TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS...AND USED
CRITICAL THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDING PROFILES FOR PCPN TYPE. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF SNW EXISTS N OF PIT BASED
ON LATEST MDL GUIDANCE...THOUGH THIS WL BE REFINED OVR THE NXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

SNW SHOULD CONT MON UNTIL THE UPR TROF AXIS SHIFTS E IN THE AFTN.
NUDGED TEMPS TO THE LATEST COLDER THAN SEASONAL AVG SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD...WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WITH IFR VSBY IN SNOW SHWRS WL CONT THIS AFTN. GENL
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER AS DRY ADVCTN AND SBSDNC
INCRS.  SFC WIND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GUST FROM THE W AND NW
AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY.  FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BLDS THROUGH SATURDAY MRNG.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SUNDAY LOW PRES AND
WITH A MONDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ001.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ008-009-015-016-023-074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ001>003-023-041.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$

07/15





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.