Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 281725
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM TODAY. DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE RIDGES AND CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHEAST.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWER DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH BUT AS
FRONT WASHES OUT THIS EVENING LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL MAKE IT TO THE MASON DIXON LINE. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
UNCHANGED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WITH A BASICALLY DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS CLOSE TO
MODEL MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON RIPPLES OF
ENERGY RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO GIVE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON.

CONTINUED ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
UNDER RIDGING. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY
MORNING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS BY AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION FOR PIT
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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