Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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000
FXUS66 KPDT 062130
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THICK CLOUDS ARE NOW
FINALLY THINNING OUT AND IS ALLOWING BETTER SURFACE HEATING WHICH IS
RESULTING IN INCREASING CONVECTION. STILL THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
BORDER AREAS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THERE
MAY ALSO BE SOME LIMITED CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
CWA WHERE IT HAS BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR ALL DAY SO FAR. THERE ARE STILL
NUMEROUS LOW CLOUDS OVER THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS EASTWARD AND
NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION DESPITE THE THINNING HIGHER CLOUDS. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS SUCH AS HELICITY...CAPE...SHEAR...PWAT AND NEGATIVE LI`S
ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE TODAY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. ALSO DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT QUITE REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES EXCEPT OVER YAKIMA AND KITTITAS COUNTIES WHERE IT HAS
BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR ALL DAY SO FAR. THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING BUT SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH POSSIBLE...NOT
LIKELY. NCEP HAS THE FORECAST AREA ONLY IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WITH THE MARGINAL OR HIGHER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EITHER. THIS UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING GRADUAL STABILIZATION AND DRYING OUT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL ALLOW GREATER SOLAR HEATING FOR VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN COOLER ON SUNDAY AS THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVEN COOLER GOING INTO THE EARLY EXTENDED
PERIOD ON MONDAY. WINDS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BECOME QUITE STRONG IN THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...WHICH MAY
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL MAKE A FINAL DECISION TO ISSUE
ONE OR NOT EITHER ON TONIGHT`S MIDNIGHT SHIFT OR ON SATURDAY`S DAY
SHIFT. 88

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG OUR
EASTERN ZONES THAT INCLUDES THE BLUE/WALLOWAS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
INFLUENCE THE REGIONS WEATHER INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AND PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUCH AS CENTRAL
OREGON COULD EXPERIENCE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS BELOW BELOW FREEZING
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS TEMPS REBOUND ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER AN ISOLD TSRA IS POSSIBLE NEAR TAF
SITE KRDM AND KBDN BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  56  81  53  73 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  55  82  52  75 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  57  87  56  80 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  54  87  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  53  85  52  77 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  50  83  49  70 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  43  79  42  70 /  10  10  10   0
LGD  48  76  47  70 /  20  20  10  10
GCD  49  76  48  70 /  40  20  10  10
DLS  53  86  52  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/97/97


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