Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 011136 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
335 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST AS A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS INTO CENTRAL OREGON. AREAS OF
DENSE FREEZING FOG AT BEND REDMOND AND PRINEVILLE. AN ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10AM. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY SHOULD HELP TO
LIFT OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY. ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE 5000-7000 FEET THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN.
SOME SNOW LIKELY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THE FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
ALSO BRING OCCASIONAL BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH THE LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS TODAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S AGAIN.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.  94

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT THEY SHOULD RESOLVE
THEMSELVES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
00Z ECMWF AND GFS IS THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE BOTH MODELS BUILD A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG
THE COAST...THE ECMWF HOLDS A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA
WITH RAIN CONTINUING...BUT THE GFS IS MOSTLY DRY. HAVE THEREFORE
KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. THE MODELS COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH A WARM FRONT AND ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE THAT
COULD BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW
ON SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT BRINGS
MORE RAIN. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL KEEP MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KPSC. AT KPSC...HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT HAVE ALLOWED THE LOW STRATUS TO ERODE.
KRDM AND KBDN WILL REMAIN LIFR UNTIL AROUND 15Z WHEN THE INCOMING
SYSTEM WILL BREAK SURFACE INVERSIONS. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KPDT AND KALW AROUND SUNRISE. OTHER TAF LOCATIONS WILL
ALSO IMPROVE AFTER 15-18Z THOUGH MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AS
RAIN MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  39  36  50  38 /  50  40  60  30
ALW  40  39  50  40 /  50  40  60  30
PSC  42  34  49  38 /  40  30  60  20
YKM  40  32  45  33 /  30  20  60  20
HRI  41  36  50  40 /  40  30  60  20
ELN  39  31  43  33 /  40  20  60  20
RDM  44  36  53  35 /  40  30  70  20
LGD  44  34  46  35 /  40  50  70  40
GCD  45  33  49  33 /  40  40  60  30
DLS  44  38  50  40 /  50  30  70  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ511.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/82/82






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