Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
FXUS61 KPHI 241902
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
302 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016
High pressure offshore will continue to move east through Friday.
Low pressure will move across Canada and cause a weak cold front to
cross our area Thursday night and Friday. Another high pressure
system will build in for the weekend. Low pressure will move through
Canada early next week and another front may affect our weather next
Monday and Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure continues to push offshore tonight. Meanwhile,
a weak cold front over the Midwest will move into the Great Lakes.
Mainly warm and quiet for the local area tonight, but there may be
some convective debris from the storms upstream passing overhead
from time to time during the overnight hours.
With S to SW flow persisting through the overnight hours, low level
humidity levels will continue to creep up as surface dewpoints climb
into the low 60s. Temperatures tonight will range from 5 to 10
degrees warmer than they have been the last 2 nights.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Low pressure over Canada will continue to drag a cold front through
the OH Valley and towards the local region on Thursday. Surface high
pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to push offshore, but
upper level ridging will hold firm over the area with the approach
of that front. The front almost appears to wash out as it moves
into the region late in the afternoon. Best forcing remains to the N
and W. The upper ridging should keep precip from developing across
most of the area, but will carry slight chance POPs, and cannot rule
out a rumble of thunder or 2 into eastern PA.
Southerly flow continues to usher a warmer and more humid airmass
into the region on Thursday.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mostly good weather for the longer range part of the forecast. A
cold front will cross the area Thursday night and Friday, but the
front is weakening and the showers and few tstms that accompany it
will not be anything out of the ordinary for the summer. High
pressure will bring nice weather for the weekend. Another low
pressure system and cold front will move through for early next
week. Again, more sct showers and tstms will affect our weather
Temperatures for the long range will mostly be above normal with
readings mostly around 5 degrees above normal. Highs will be in the
upper 80s to low 90s across the urban areas and Delmarva. Highs
across the Nrn NJ and srn Poconos areas will be in the 80s. The
warmest and most uncomfortable conditions will be on Friday. The dew
points and temperatures on Friday may bring heat index values into
the upper 90s across the urban areas.
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Rest of afternoon...VFR. Generally W to SW flow at 5-10 KT with S to
SE winds at KACY and KILG due to afternoon sea/bay breezes.
Tonight...VFR. Southerly winds becoming light and variable at most
terminals during the evening. Local MVFR visibility is possible
toward daybreak Thursday due to light fog, mainly at RDG, ABE and
Thursday...VFR. Isolated SHRA possible which could temporarily lower
conditions. S winds increase to 5-10 KT.
Outlook... Thu Night thru Monday...Mostly VFR conditions
expected. Sct tstms Thu night and Fri may bring short period of
High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to move offshore
tonight through Thursday. A cold front approaches from the west on
Thursday. S winds will range from 5-10 KT tonight, then will
increase to 10-15 KT during the day Thursday. Cannot rule out a few
gusts to 25 KT late Thursday for northern NJ ocean zones, but will
hold off on issuing a SCA at this time.
Outlook... Sub-sca conditions are expected for the outlook
period. Close to SCA gusts may occur on the northern NJ waters Thu
night and early fri. Sct tstms Thu night/Fri and again early next
RIP CURRENTS...For today, the risk for the formation of dangerous
rip currents is low. However, conditions may reach moderate this
afternoon and evening especially if the waves in the surf zone
increase to 2-3 feet combined with the south-southeast winds
For Thursday...The rip current risk may increase to moderate for the
NJ shore in the afternoon due to increasing southerly flow. Update
will be provided with the evening SRF issuance.
This coming Sun-Tue...model ensemble guidance on every successive
cycle continues to send 2-4 ft long period (15 to 17 second) east
southeast swell into our waters from the central Atlantic. If that
occurs, swimming and wading dangers will increase markedly.