Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 200144
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
944 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough moves across the region tonight. High pressure
currently over the Midwest builds overhead on Sunday, and then
moves offshore Sunday night. High pressure remains anchored off
the Mid- Atlantic coast through Tuesday before drifting out to
sea Tuesday night. A cold front moves across the region on
Wednesday, and then low pressure may move along the coast
Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure then builds east for the
end of the week and into the start of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
The main line of thunderstorms is finally trending weaker and
beginning to break apart. However, discrete showers and
thunderstorms across Maryland and Virginia have developed and
think these have a good chance to move into Delmarva as there
are still dew points in the 70s across Delmarva. Thus, adjusted
PoPs to include the entire region. Still, expect activity to be
finished by early Sunday morning.

Some patchy fog may develop overnight through daybreak, but we
do not expect any fog to be very dense or widespread.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
High pressure tries to build across the area from the west on
Sunday, although a weak surface trough may develop along the
east coast. With a lack of moisture and upper level support, no
precipitation and little in the way of clouds is expected for
Sunday. Temperatures will again warm several degrees above
normal, but dewpoints will be even lower than Saturday, so it
will not feel as oppressive as it has the last couple of days.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure over the area Sunday night drifts offshore and
then becomes centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday.
Return flow sets up on Monday and surface dewpoints slowly
build throughout the day. Dewpoints climb to around 70 across
the Delmarva, and in the low to mid 60s elsewhere.

With high pressure still in control of much of the region,
expecting mostly sunny skies for most of the region Monday
afternoon for most of NJ and southeast PA. Sunshine may be
filtered through some cirrus, but it should not be enough to
block viewing of the eclipse. In addition, diurnally driven
cumulus will develop during the day, and it will be interesting
to see if that diurnally driven cumulus dissipates a bit during
the time of the eclipse, and if it redevelops after the eclipse
ends.

The exception will be for the Delmarva and into extreme
southern NJ. With onshore flow and some weak shortwave energy
approaching from the west, there should be more in the way of
cloud cover in the afternoon, and there could be a few showers
and thunderstorms moving into northeast MD and into DE in the
afternoon.

Highs on Monday will top off in the mid to upper 80s, but it
will also be interesting to see if hourly temps fall off during
the eclipse, and how they rebound once it ends.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue into
the evening as those mid-level shortwaves move across the
region.

High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to slowly
drift out to sea on Tuesday. A cold front over the Midwest
continues to advance to the east. A pre-frontal trough develops
out ahead of the front, and that trough may touch off some showers
and thunderstorms across the Delaware and Lehigh Valleys and
northwest NJ Tuesday afternoon and evening.

That cold front works its way across the region Wednesday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms. That front moves offshore
Wednesday night, and then a much cooler and dryer airmass builds
east.

Canadian high pressure then drops into the Upper Midwest, and
will be centered over the Great Lakes on Thursday. That high
gradually builds east through the end of the week and into the
weekend. Temperatures fall below normal during this time with
highs generally in the 70s to around 80. Lows at night fall into
the upper 50s to low 60s, with cooler temperatures in the
mountains. With low humidity levels, this should result in
comfortable sleeping nights.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Mostly VFR conditions expected across the TAF sites through the
TAF period. There is a chance that showers and a thunderstorm
could move into KILG and KMIV by 06Z, but expect the showers
currently to the west to be gradually diminishing in coverage.
Thus, not enough confidence to include in the TAFs at this time.
There could be some patchy fog overnight through daybreak, but
we do not expect any fog to be very dense or widespread.

Northwest winds will become southwesterly this afternoon and
evening before becoming light and variable most places
overnight. Winds will increase again after sunrise Sunday. An
occasional gust around 15 knots is possible this afternoon and
Sunday afternoon, but they are not expected to be very frequent.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday night...Mainly VFR. Some patchy fog may result in VSBY
restrictions at KRDG/KABE/KMIV/KACY late at night.

Monday...VFR. Isolated SHRA/TSRA possible, mainly at KILG/KMIV.

Tuesday...VFR. Scattered SHRA/TSRA possible, mainly at KRDG/KABE
in the afternoon.

Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions in SHRA/TSRA.

Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions expected through Sunday.
Winds will shift to the southwest everywhere by this evening and
overnight, then become west to northwest by daybreak through
midday. Then begin shifting back to a south-southwest direction
by the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday night through Thursday...A prolonged period of
predominantly sub-SCA conditions expected on the waters. The
exception is Tuesday night through Wednesday, as southerly
winds may result in 25 KT wind gusts and 5 foot seas during that
time. Showers and thunderstorms may impact the waters, mainly
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.

.RIP CURRENTS...

Waves on the ocean are running around 2-3 feet with a 5-6
second period. Winds along the northern half of the Jersey shore
have shifted to the south, while southern Jersey shore and
Delaware remain northwest. Everyone is expected to become
southwesterly by the late afternoon. Overall expectation is for
the risk of rip currents to be low, with a few locations with a
more moderate risk, such as LBI.

Sunday`s risk is expected to be similar as Saturday as seas are
expected to be a little lower and winds will likely react the
same way; starting northwest, then shifting southwest by
afternoon. So overall low risk expected with a few locations
with a more moderate risk.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Several tidal sites along the Altantic coast touched minor
flooding thresholds with the high tide that occurred earlier
this evening. With the flow becoming more off shore tomorrow,
expect water levels with the next two high tide cycles to be
below minor flooding thresholds. However, we will be watching
the tidal departures closely for the Monday evening high tide,
as winds will once again shift to more southerly, and
astronomical tides should be relatively high thanks to the new
moon on Monday. At this point minor flooding is possible, though
some guidance continues to show water levels falling short of
minor flooding thresholds.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...MPS
Near Term...Johnson/Robertson
Short Term...Robertson
Long Term...MPS
Aviation...Johnson/Robertson/MPS
Marine...Robertson/MPS
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Johnson


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