Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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000
FXZS60 NSTU 010058
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
158 PM SST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE ACTIVE MONSOONAL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO BOMBARD THE SAMOAN GROUP WITH EPISODES OF HEAVY
RAINFALLS AND NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
MONSOON AXIS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND AN APPROACHING RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND GROUP. THE MONSOON AXIS REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY WHILE THE MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE FORCES AND STEEPENS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLAND GROUP. THUS...SEVERE WEATHER
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS A
DEVELOPING LOW TO THE WEST OF SAVAII. MODELS ARE HOLDING THIS
WEATHER FEATURE IN THE PLACE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING IT SOUTH
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS AND FREQUENT SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO BREEZY NORTH WINDS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE TO SCATTERED ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL BRING
STABLE WEATHER PATTERNS ACROSS THE ISLANDS ON TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME MODELS ARE AGAIN INTRODUCING UNSTABLE WEATHER
PATTERN DURING THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATE
OUTPUTS WHILE CONTINUING THE LONG TERM WITH IMPROVING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND NORTHERN SHORELINES OF THE TERRITORY. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY AS WINDS DIMINISHES.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH FACING SHORES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

$$

MALALA









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