Area Forecast Discussion
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328
FXPQ60 PGUM 052021
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
621 AM CHST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS IS APPROACHING THE MARIANAS WATERS FROM THE
EAST. OTHERWISE...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE SEEN IN THE MARIANAS
WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST WINDS OF 12 TO 25 KNOTS
THROUGH THE LOWEST 8 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
MARIANAS TODAY. IN THE LOWER LEVEL IMAGERY...TEMPERATURES AS HIGH
AS 2 C CAN BE FOUND. THIS EQUATES TO AROUND 17 THOUSAND FEET IN
THE SOUNDING AND IS ALSO NEAR THE MAX CLOUD TOPS IN THE MORE
VIGOROUS CONVECTION...WHICH IS STILL UNDERWHELMING. 12Z SOUNDING
ALSO SHOWS STRONG TRADE-WIND INVERSION WITH TEMP 57 F AND DEWPOINT
56 F AT 5000 FEET AND TEMP 67 F AND DEWPOINT -6 F AT 6000 FEET.
THEREFORE MADE THE ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY OF LIGHT INTENSITY.

LITTLE OTHER NEW DATA WAS AVAILABLE...SO VERY FEW CHANGES WERE
MADE. MARIANAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RATHER DRY
TRADE-WIND REGIME UNTIL MID-WEEK. AT THAT TIME A SHEAR LINE COULD
INTRODUCE MORE HIGH WINDS...AND HOPEFULLY ENOUGH RAIN TO MITIGATE
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. NORMALIZED DIFFERENCE VEGETATION INDEX
VALUES YESTERDAY SHOW THAT THE PLANTS ARE BEGINNING TO GET
STRESSED NOW. THE HIGHEST VALUES WERE AROUND 80. A LOT OF THEM ARE
NOW IN THE 60S. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TO SEE OF THE
EXPECTED EL NINO DROUGHT REALLY IS DEVELOPING. SEEMS LIKE IT HAS A
GOOD START...

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LINGERING MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT OVER THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS...BUT DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
MAJURO SOUTH OF 5N AND THIS IS WHERE THE ACTION WILL STAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDWEEK. LESS CLOUD COVER AND SIMILARLY DRY TRADE WIND
CONDITIONS ARE FOUND OVER KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. FORECAST FOR ALL
LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. MODELS
HINT AT DEEPER MOISTURE AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE RETURNING TO KOSRAE
SUNDAY BUT APPEARS MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF KOSRAE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE
TO STRONGER TRADE WIND FLOW. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS
COASTAL WATERS AT ALL LOCATIONS. SURF WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AT
MAJURO TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY POHNPEI ON SUNDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUIET...DRY TRADE-WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS
CHUUK STATE. WEATHER PATTERN WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING LIGHT TRADE-WIND SHOWERS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER YAP STATE AND PALAU AS WELL AS SOUNDING DATA FROM
YAP AND KOROR INDICATE A VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE PATTERN OVER THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT YAP AND
KOROR ARE BOTH WELL BELOW ONE INCH AT 0.80 AND 0.86...RESPECTIVELY.
FORECAST FOR VERY DRY CONDITIONS WAS IMPLEMENTED FOR BOTH LOCATIONS
TODAY. A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS SLATED TO PROGRESS WESTWARD
AND AFFECT YAP OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE HOSTILE TO DEEP CONVECTION SO
ONLY ISOLATED SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THE DISTURBANCE WILL
TRANSLATE WESTWARD BRINGING MORE CLOUDS TO KOROR SUNDAY BUT SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE FOR REASONS DISCUSSED ABOVE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS CHUUK STATE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONGER TRADE-WIND REGIME SETTING UP OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND
SEAS COULD RISE TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS TO OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT BY
SUNDAY AND SURF COULD SIMILARLY RISE TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS SUNDAY AS
WELL.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS



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