Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 230548
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
348 PM CHST SUN NOV 23 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...EAST TRADE-WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PREVAILED ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE BROUGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA
SHOW THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE NIGHT
ACROSS GUAM AND ROTA. THIS SAME IMAGERY SHOW ACTIVITY DECREASING
SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS...FOR THIS REASON
DECREASE SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS GUAM AND ROTA BY MIDNIGHT.

MODELS AGREE ON DRIER AIR FILTERING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
AND REMAINING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED
AT BEST AS DRY SEASON TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF IN ERNEST. TRADE-
WINDS ARE EXPECT TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK.

AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF MICRONESIA BY
FRIDAY. WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE
SWELL WILL BE AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NORTH
SWELL WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. NONE OF THESE
SWELLS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY SURF ADVISORIES.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA FROM
EAST OF THE DATE LINE...EAST OF BUTARITARI...TO SOUTH OF KOSRAE
AND POHNPEI. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER KOSRAE. AS
THE TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTS WESTWARD...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS KOSRAE TONIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
MOVING IN FROM THE EAST BY EVENING. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD DRIFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO POHNPEI MONDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
PUSH IN RAPIDLY OVER POHNPEI AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS
NORTHWARD...WITH ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE BY
TUESDAY. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD...THE PORTION
OF THE TROUGH EAST OF THE DATE LINE WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARSHALLS...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO
MAJURO TUESDAY. A TRADE-WIND SURGE WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK...RETURNING DRY CONDITIONS TO
MAJURO FRIDAY.

BUILDING TRADE-WIND SWELLS AND WIND WAVES WILL CAUSE HIGHER SURF
AND RIP CURRENT RISKS ALONG THE EAST FACING SHORES OF KOSRAE
STATE AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURF
HEIGHTS AT BOTH LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HAZARDOUS
LEVELS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CHUUK STATE IS
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARD YAP THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD REACH YAP WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY THERE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO PALAU LATE MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR KOROR
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WITH SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
KOROR...THOUGH SHORT PERIODS OF SCATTERED ARE A POSSIBILITY.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER YAP AND
KOROR THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. LATEST MODEL RUN DEVELOPS A WEAK
CIRCULATION NEAR KOROR ON FRIDAY. IF THIS SYSTEM
DEVELOPS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY THERE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. DRY TRADES HAVE PUSHED IN TO CHUUK THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE HEADING TOWARD YAP. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR WENO UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH
THAT IS AFFECTING POHNPEI IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD INTO
CHUUK STATE... BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION TO WENO MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRY TRADE-WINDS WILL PUSH THE BACK INTO CHUUK
STATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN TO CHUUK FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

TRADE-WIND SWELLS AND WIND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BY MIDWEEK BUT NO
HAZARDOUS SURF IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/KLEESCHULTE





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