Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 242032
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
504 AM ChST Sat Nov 25 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite shows an east-west line of heavy showers about 70 miles
south of Guam, moving toward the west-southwest away from the
islands. Otherwise, fresh to strong trade winds and isolated showers
are found in the Marianas. Combined sea of 7 to 8 feet are indicated
at the buoys.

&&

.Discussion...
The forecast remains the same as the previous one, with isolated
showers, and skies becoming mostly cloudy by Sunday night. Breezy
conditions should last through at least Monday.

&&

.Marine...
Winds and seas will build the next couple of days, peaking around
Monday. Small craft conditions could end on Tuesday, but moderate to
fresh winds and seas as high as 9 feet will likely persist through
most of next week. Hazardous surf is possible along north facing
reefs by Sunday or Sunday night, and along east facing reefs on
Monday.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds associated with a trade-
wind trough are moving through the Marshalls, while trade-wind
convergence continues to generate showers and thunderstorms just west
of Kosrae and south of Pohnpei. Convection west of Kosrae will
gradually dissipate while showers persist at Majuro the next couple
of days. Models show trade-wind convergence continuing in the lee of
the westward moving trough, bringing more showers to Kosrae and
Pohnpei around Tuesday and Wednesday.

Winds and seas will rise in the Marshalls the next few days. Seas
will rise, possibly becoming hazardous to small craft early in the
week. In addition, surf will rise, and could become hazardous early
in the week. Seas, winds, and surf will also build some at Pohnpei
and Kosrae but are not expected to become hazardous.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Showers and thunderstorms remain south of Koror, Yap, and Chuuk while
fresh trades persist over all 3 locations. Decided to significantly
reduce short term showers and thunderstorms across Palau based on
early morning satellite imagery showing dry weather in the area.
Models still show showers and thunderstorms increasing nearby, but to
the south, so have at least maintained isolated thunderstorms through
tonight. A dry trade-wind pattern will otherwise persist with only a
few showers the next few days across the region.

Increased trade winds and seas across Yap and Palau have become
hazardous to small craft. Winds and seas will be slow to decrease the
next few days, but are expected to fall below hazardous levels Sunday
morning at Koror and Monday morning at Yap. In the meantime, surf
will rise, and could become hazardous, but based on altimetry data
staying just below model forecasts, have not issued a high surf
advisory for either location at this time.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CHST Monday for
     PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

Middlebrooke/W. Aydlett



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