Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 050552 RRA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
335 PM CHST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS BLOWING THROUGH THE MARIANAS THIS
AFTERNOON. VIS SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
GUAM AND ROTA...BUT MORE CLOUDS AND WIDELY-SCATTERED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CNMI NORTHWARD TO AGRIGAN. DRIER WEATHER IS
SEEN JUST EAST OF THE DISTURBANCE TO BEYOND 150E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TODAY BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY RESUME BY SUNSET. SHOWERS
WERE MOST CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE CNMI WITH GUAM BEING ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IS SEEN NEAR 153E.
AGAIN...NOT MUCH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS. THEREFORE...
FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWES. MODERATE TO FRESH EAST-
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TODAY ALLOWING FOR THE CANCELATION OF
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING AND HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO MONDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY TRADE-
WIND PATTERN WILL PERSIST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY. LIGHTER WINDS AND
HIGHER HUMIDITIES TODAY MITIGATED RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS.
WILL STILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING JUST NORTHEAST
OF MAJURO IN AN AREA WHERE THERE IS FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COUPLED WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. ALSO...ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
DISTURBANCE NEAR 4N172E HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.
THIS SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN HAS BEEN NEARLY-STATIONARY THE PAST FEW
DAYS AND MODELS INDICATE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST CAN BE
EXPECTED.

HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS PERSIST NEAR MAJURO. ALTIMETRY DATA AND WW3
WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE COMBINED SEAS NEAR 10 FEET NEAR AND
NORTHEAST OF MAJURO.

ELSEWHERE...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH REMAIN SOUTH OF CHUUK...POHNPEI AND
KOSRAE. DRY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST AT THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM AT LEAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY A FEW
MORE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AT THESE LOCATIONS IF THE MONSOON TROUGH
LIFTS NORTH A LITTLE...AND IF THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS EVENTUALLY MOVES WESTWARD.

ALSO FOR CHUUK...ALTIMETRY AND WW3 WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
COMBINED SEAS WILL BE NEAR 9 FEET THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND CONDITIONS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE THE SEAS REACH HAZARDOUS LEVELS
NEAR 10 FEET.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DISCUSSION FOR CHUUK IS INCLUDED IN EASTERN MICRONESIA BECAUSE OF A
SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF KOROR BUT SATELLITE
AND ASCAT WIND ANALYSIS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BETWEEN YAP
AND KOROR ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF A TRADE-WIND SURGE. OTHERWISE...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA.
MODELS INDICATE SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED MOST OF THE
TIME IN THE COMING DAYS...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
NEAR KOROR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

M. AYDLETT/SIMPSON



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