Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXPQ60 PGUM 200544
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
344 PM CHST SAT SEP 20 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COVERAGE AREA...A FEW HAVE
CONTAINED SMALL CORES OF HEAVY RAINFALL. SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS MOVED WEST OF OUR FORECAST ZONES.
ANOTHER AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL EAST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR
155E. ASCAT ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTH OF GUAM
NEAR 4N143E. VAD GRADIENT WINDS ARE ENE ABOUT 10 KT. BUOYS SHOW
COMBINED SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET FROM WEST...AND NORTHEAST TO EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR NOW...BUT BY
NEXT WEEK A MORE ACTIVE MONSOON-TYPE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED.
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF STILL INDICATE THAT AS THE CIRCULATION SOUTH
OF GUAM MOVES TOWARD WEST AND NORTHWEST...A MONSOON TROUGH WILL
FORM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM ALONG 12N WITH A BROAD MONSOON CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE POHNPEI-KOSRAE AREA BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
THIS CIRCULATION IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AS NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES. LATER MARIANA
FORECASTS WILL LIKELY NEED ADJUSTMENTS AS THE SITUATION BECOMES
BETTER DEFINED.

&&

.MARINE...
PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT FEW DAYS. BUT...MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY ABOUT
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO WAVE GRIDS
FOR NEXT WEEK BASED ON WW3 MODEL AND REFRESHED WIND GRIDS WITH
LATEST GFS DATA.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE SENT LATER.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE SENT LATER.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SIMPSON




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