Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, OR

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FXUS66 KPQR 300333
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
832 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT TONIGHT. BIT WARMER ON
TUE...BUT WILL SEE MUCH WARMER WEATHER LATER THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

&&

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TONIGHT AS RAIN AND LIGHTNING
CHANCES ARE DONE. AST-PDT GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY 9.6 MB WHICH IS
FAIRLY STRONG...SO THINK MARINE STRATUS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND AS
THE PDX METRO. HOWEVER THIS GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING SO NO
GUARANTEE ON THE CLOUDS. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE TONIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER MORE PLEASANT ONE IN THE VALLEY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG PROBABLY
ALSO ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
BOWEN

.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW STILL SITS OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS AND IS
VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LOW HAS TRIGGERED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OREGON COASTAL
WATERS AND ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THOUGH THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES OVER NW OREGON...SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING ON THE OREGON COAST INTO THE OREGON COAST RANGE.

AS MARINE LAYER COOLS TONIGHT...WILL SEE STRATUS PUSH BACK ONSHORE
THIS EVENING. NOT A LOT OF ONSHORE FLOW...BUT MORE THAN HAVE SEEN IN
PAST 3 OR 4 DAYS. SO WILL SEE REPEAT OF MON AM AGAIN ON TUE...WITH
PATCHY OR AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS INLAND OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

AFTER ANOTHER COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...WILL HAVE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TUE...WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING A FEW DEG ABOVE THOSE FROM MON AFTERNOON. OVERALL...WOULD
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. STILL COOL ON
THE COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

ON WED...THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH 850
TEMPS WARMING A BIT MORE. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH INLAND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 90S...PERHAPS BIT MORE       ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW-TO-MID 90S IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 70
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD TO
THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL SQUASH DOWN THE RIDGE SOME OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING TO NEAR 100
INLAND. THIS TROUGH COULD ALSO BRING SOME STRATUS TO THE COAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN
THE MID-60S ON THESE DAYS. IN THE CASCADES THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES COULD BE A BIT COOLER.      -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY CONTINUE FOR THE
INLAND TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SATELLITE
TRENDS AND SURFACE OBS...SEE THAT SOME MARINE INFLUENCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE UP THE COLUMBIA AND PERHAPS REACHING THE METRO PORTLAND
TERMINALS. THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO THE
METRO TERMINALS BETWEEN 10-16Z. THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
MIXTURE OF IFR TO MVFR MARINE STRATUS...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
CLEARING THROUGH AROUND 04Z. LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KONP
AFTER 10Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MVFR STRATUS BETWEEN
10-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND
TURN TO THE NW TONIGHT AS THE THERMAL LOW BUILDS OVER S OREGON.
THIS WILL BRING A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. COMBINED SEAS AROUND 3 TO 4 FT WILL
BUILD TO NEAR 7 FT BY LATE TUE EVENING...WITH STEEP AND CHOPPY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A BUILDING NW SWELL LOOKS TO ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND AND COULD BRING A ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



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