Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 261026
AFDPSR
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 AM MST TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDINESS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THEREAFTER SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LOWER DESERTS BY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT BETWEEN
100 AND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL FINALLY COME TO FRUITION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE PAST
COUPLE WEEKS OF DEEP PACIFIC LOWS DOMINATING THE WESTERN U.S. COMES
TO AN END. GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...A FAIRLY ROBUST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATE THIS WEEK. BEFORE THAT POINT...WE
WILL SEE SOMEWHAT QUASI-ZONAL WESTERLY DRY FLOW WITH A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND A
SOMEWHAT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

HEIGHTS ALOFT HAVE BUILT UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE
TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS...OR STILL A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMALS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR AS A COMPACT CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION ROUGHLY 900 MILES WEST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...REACHING NORTHERN BAJA WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TAKING THE ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY SKIRTING
THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. UPPER LEVEL RH FIELDS INDICATE ENOUGH
MOISTURE PRESENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BRING IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THIS MAY INFLUENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKELY NOT
MUCH AS MOST OF THE DAY WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF FILTERED SUNSHINE.

THE BUILDING PACIFIC RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO AROUND 585DM BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY AND
EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL STARTING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW WARMER LOWER DESERT SPOTS TOP OUT AT
AROUND 105 ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING
OVERHEAD. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
PACIFIC LOW AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF COOLING OVER OUR REGION...BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE TERMINALS. THE
ONLY SKY COVER WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FEW-SCT CIRRUS DECKS.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL SPEEDS AND
DIRECTIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AZ DESERT TAF SITES. WINDS TO FAVOR
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH KBLH AND KIPL. NO
AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AT ANY TERMINAL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND. LOWER DESERT HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH 100
DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY...THEN RISE INTO THE 101-105
DEGREE RANGE FROM SATURDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT MONDAY. MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 8 PERCENT TO THE MID TEENS
EACH DAY. DESPITE THESE LOW RH VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT
WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FIRE
DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA/CB




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