Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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203
FXUS65 KPSR 070251
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
751 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A VERY WEAK LOW SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ONLY A LITTLE BIT OF HIGH
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...SOME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED OFFSHORE LOW...SOME SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA. EITHER WAY...NOTHING THICK ENOUGH TO HAVE ANY
NEGATIVE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND MID EVENING READINGS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S AS OF 0245Z.

FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON INCOMING
NBM AND LOCALLY BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE DESERTS SEEMS MORE THAN PLAUSIBLE. WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WEEK...RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH STEADY WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THEIR PEAK WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN STEADY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DESERT LOCALES SHOULD EASILY HIT THE LOW/MID 80S. WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED IN THE LEAST IF SOME OF THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TOOK A RUN AT 90 LATE IN THE WEEK. GEFS
MAINTAINS 850MB TEMPS IN THE 15-17C RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. STILL A
BIT EARLY IN THE YEAR TO BE MIXING ALL THE WAY UP TO 850MB ON A DAILY
BASIS BUT SOME MODELS /99TH PERCENTILE OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE/ ARE
CERTAINLY TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT /20-25KTS/ ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA BUT WELL
SHORT OF LLWS THRESHOLDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
WARMING AND DRYING FOR AREA FIRE DISTRICTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND FROM THE WEEKEND AND PEAK AT READINGS 10
TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE MID FEBRUARY NORMALS WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS
SITES PUSHING INTO THE 80S. RHS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND
BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH
LIGHT SPEEDS. BY WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR
EAST AS TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY
RESULT TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



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