Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 292100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
200 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2016

A much more humid airmass will move into the Desert Southwest this
weekend, causing a modest drop in temperatures. There will be a
marked increase in thunderstorm activity beginning this evening and
continuing into next week. All typical hazards associated with the
monsoon season including strong damaging winds, blowing dust,
lightning, and localized flooding will be in play.


Conditions continue to evolve toward a very active, high impact
weather situation across central Arizona this evening and tonight.
Regional objective analysis shows the H5 anti-cyclone gradually
weakening and shifting east towards the four corners. Per WV imagery,
there appears to be a subtle wave on the eastern periphery of this
midtropospheric high pressure over west-central/southwest NM, and
visible imagery shows rapid manifestation of midlevel clouds in
response to this feature (and possibly encapsulating a gravity wave
as well). Convection over the White Mountains already shows
rather organized outflow and very solid coverage. Given these
features,its not surprising that modest cooling and moistening of the
middle atmosphere is forecast for the remainder of the day per
forecast sounding data.

NCAR and SSEO ensemble output along with almost every local high
resolution model resoundingly suggests intense outflow
winds/boundaries developing from high terrain convection propagating
towards lower elevations. Deep outflow boundaries (and numerous
collisions) should be sufficient to spur additional convection
helping re-enforce strong surface winds leading to expansive dense
blowing dust. Ensemble mean probabilities for sfc winds greater than
30-40kt across the Phoenix metro are about as high as typically ever
seen during monsoon season. Given the relatively high confidence, a
blowing dust advisory remains in effect as a watch type product
leading into this presumptive large event.

In addition to expansive dense blowing dust, severe weather remains
a distinct possibility as well with forecast soundings indicating
outflow mixing 11 g/kg of moisture in a sfc-600mb layer resulting in
the localized  release of 1500 J/kg energy with any better
perturbation. Unusually steep H7-H5 lapse rates near 8 C/km will be
juxtaposed with DCape values near 2000 J/kg indicative of both
severe hail and wind potential. Probably the main uncertainty is how
extensive the deeper convective cells will spread across the
forecast area. but certainly the opportunity exists for a
significant event given the underlying parameters.

Activity Saturday may become highly dependent on evolution of
outflow and convection tonight; and much of the forecast model
output indicates very delayed build up of instability Saturday
afternoon. In fact, forecast soundings show the typical convectively
overturned environment during the morning, then a subsident capping
inversion/elevated mixed layer developing near 700mb during the
afternoon. Ensemble mean probabilities and high resolution output
correspondingly are rather muted in convective response into the
early evening, though show a far more robust response into the late
evening overnight. A vast majority of model output still latches
onto a well defined inverted trough/shortwave Saturday night while
at the same time surges an anomalously high theta-e airmass
northward towards central Arizona. POPs remain quite high during the
Sunday morning time frame with the potential for locally heavy rain.
Consequently, residual cloud cover through the daylight hours Sunday
may very well keep temperatures over central Arizona well retarded
while shifting convective activity westward.

Monday through Thursday...
1000-700 mb mean mixing ratios remain in the 10-12 g/kg through at
least Tuesday, keeping above-climo rain chances in the forecast.
GFS trends toward a slow decline of moisture beginning Wednesday and
especially Thursday (GEM starts drying on Monday). This is reflected
in a gradual eastward retreat PoPs from NAEFS and ESRL output. ECMWF
however holds on to moisture longer as it stalls out an inverted
trough over Arizona. Thus held on to PoPs over south- central AZ
through Thursday. Temperatures during the week will trend slowly


South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Westerly winds to prevail through the late afternoon hours with
stronger winds (sustained speeds as high as 12 kts) during the mid-
late afternoon hours today.

Latest high-res computer models are now in much better agreement on
the idea that thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain east
of Phoenix, at least sending strong outflow winds  this evening into
the Greater Phoenix Area during the 01Z-02Z hours. This will likely
affecting all of the Phx area taf sites with even a decent chance for
the storms themselves affecting one or more of the taf sites. Wind
speeds of at least 25 kts, with gusts as high as 35 kts look likely,
with even stronger speeds possible along with blowing dust reducing
visibilities. Heavy downpours and even small hail are possible if
thunderstorms do actually reach the terminal(s). Winds will become
light easterly later this evening, once the storms move through.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Should be another quiet taf period at KIPL, with little chance of
any isolated showers or storms, and winds remaining from a
southeasterly direction.

Winds will continue to favor southerly directions and wind speeds at
KBLH through this evening, with stronger winds during the late
afternoon/evening hours. There is fairly high confidence that
outflows from thunderstorms over South-Central AZ will affect KBLH
for a time later this evening, with winds becoming gusty from an
easterly direction along with some blowing dust possible.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.


Monday through Friday...
Deep southerly to southeasterly flow aloft is expected to push
copious amounts of monsoon moisture into the region, resulting in
scattered to numerous thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday with
good to excellent chances for at least some wetting rains and locally
gusty winds. The combination of considerable cloudiness and rainfall
will also keep temperatures below normal during this period, and
humidities above normal. A shift to more westerly winds aloft is
then expected to gradually reduce moisture levels, and chances for
wetting rains during the Thursday-Friday period, while allowing
temperatures to return to near-normal levels. Minimum humidities in
the 25-45 percent range in the Monday-Wednesday period to drop into
the 20-35 percent range by Friday, with good-excellent overnight
recoveries. Outside of thunderstorms, winds to mainly follow typical
diurnal trends.


Spotter activation is possible this evening and Saturday.


AZ...Blowing Dust Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MST this
     evening for AZZ027-028.

     Blowing Dust Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MST this
     evening for AZZ022-023-026.




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