Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 280341
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF  WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES AND WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURE IN PHOENIX THIS
AFTERNOON REACHED 95 DEGREES...ONLY 3 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD FOR
THE DATE. IN YUMA...THE HIGH REACHED 96 DEGREES FALLING SHORT OF THE
RECORD HIGH OF 100 DEGREES. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CENTER
OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE IS POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHERN
AZ. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO SHORT-
TERM TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THE LATEST (12Z) MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT OUR CURRENT HIGH-CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR NEAR-RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REMAINING
AROUND 585DM AND 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 19-22C RANGE EACH
DAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO
NORMAL...WITH 50S LIKELY AT MANY OF THE RURAL LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. LOW DEWPOINTS (IN THE TEENS AND 20S)
WILL MAKE THESE LOWS FEEL EVEN COOLER.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THE LATEST 12Z GFS MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO
TREND TOWARD THE DRIER/WEAKER EURO/GEM SOLN CONCERNING THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ/NORTHERN SONORA ON MONDAY. IT NOW APPEARS
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SE AZ...WITH JUST A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT IT NOW APPEARS
THAT PRETTY MUCH ALL THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AOA 600MB...WITH PWATS
REMAINING AOB 0.60 INCH...AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RATIOS STAYING
AOB 4 G/KG. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER MOST OF CWA WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS
A BIT...AND RAISE OUR NIGHTTIME LOWS.

THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE A FLAT ZONAL ONE OVER OUR REGION...WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS STAYING MAINLY IN A 573-579DM RANGE AND 850MB TEMPS IN A 16-
19C RANGE...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THUS...HIGHS EACH DAY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...SOME INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...IF THE EURO SOLN PROVES TO BE
CORRECT...WHICH TRYS TO PUSH A FAIRLY STRONG TROF INTO THE GREAT
BASIN ON THU AND FRI.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL FOR THE MOST PART FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL SWINGS...BUT QUITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IS
LIKELY. NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 6-11
PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVERALL...BUT
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN



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