Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 231026
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
326 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY FOR EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
TODAY WILL WARM TO AROUND AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY
MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
RAISED POP TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND FOR PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN NEVADA. I ALSO
REDUCED OR REMOVED LATE NIGHT/MORNING SHOWER COVERAGE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES AND WIDESPREAD STRATUS OR STRATOCUMULUS
DECKS PER SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER CAN
BE SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AS A CIRCULATION DROPPING
SOUTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST. THIS LOW WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS,
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY BREAKING OUT IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS EAST OF
CHICO AND REDDING. THE 08Z HRRR INDICATES SHOWERS PUSHING OVER THE
CREST BETWEEN SUSANVILLE AND LAKE TAHOE BY MID MORNING. THIS
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND THE INCOMING
UPPER LOW.

THIS AFTERNOON, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE PROGGED TO PUSH OUT INTO
NEVADA AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. WITH
THIS IN MIND, I HAVE RAISED POP TO LIKELY FOR THE RENO-TAHOE AREA
WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR MANY OTHER AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-80.
THIS EVENING, THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SLIDING TO SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS A DEFORMATION AXIS TO THE EAST
OF THE LOW MOVES OVER THAT AREA. AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH THE CLOUDY,
MOIST CONDITIONS LIMITING CAPE. HOWEVER, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MOIST AND AT LEAST SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.

TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR FOG AS CLOUD COVER
DECREASES BEHIND TODAY`S LOW AND MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. HOWEVER,
IT IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THE LOWER
LEVEL STRATUS DECK CAN BREAK UP. FOR NOW, I JUST THREW IN PATCHY
FOG AS A HEADS UP.

SUNDAY, THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS
SOME WARMING ALOFT/SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES IN BEHIND TODAY`S UPPER
LOW. HOWEVER, MORE INSOLATION AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY NEAR THE
SIERRA). ON MONDAY, A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASED
AFTERNOON WESTERLY WINDS TO THE REGION. ELEVATED MOISTURE REMAINS
IN THE AREA SO CONVERGENCE AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WEST FLOW
ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES COULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE, BUT
PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM TO NEAR
AVERAGE FOR LATE MAY.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, RIDGING WILL BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH 80S
LIKELY IN WESTERN NV AND 70S IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS. IN ADDITION,
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE AND SLOW SURFACE DRYING SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. CONTINUED A THREAT OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, ALTHOUGH
KEPT THEM OUT OF THE TAHOE BASIN WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AND
INCREASING STABILIZATION. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. LCL MVFR CONDS CONTINUE IN -SHRA WITH CIGS
2-3000 FEET, BUT MOST 4-5000 FEET. EXPECT AND INCREASE IN SHOWERS
WITH ISOLD TSRA 15-21Z WITH AN INCOMING IMPULSE. GREATEST IMPACT
WILL BE AROUND RENO-TAHOE AREAS WITH MVFR CIGS TO 2-3000 FEET,
ALTHOUGH KMMH WILL ALSO BE THREATENED LATER. GS ALSO POSSIBLE IN
ANY TSRA.

AFTER 00Z, BEHIND THE IMPULSE, MORE STABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITH
POSSIBLE CLEARING. AT THIS POINT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR WITH ONLY ISOLD -SHRA POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z. IF
SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH, EXPECT FG TO FORM IN MANY VALLEYS FROM THE
RECENT RAIN. KTRK/MARTIS VALLEY MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED, BUT
KRNO/KLOL/KTVL MAY ALSO SEE FG WITH VIS NEAR OR BLO 1/4SM.
POTENTIAL FG FOR KTRK 60 PCT WITH OTHER AREAS 20-30 PCT. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



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