Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 311031
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY. BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ON
THE PLAYA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
AVERAGE AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON WINDS. EXPECT SMOKE AND HAZE TO
CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES DUE
TO FAVORABLE FLOW OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE.

TROUGHING DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS DRY
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 30-35 MPH WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WITH DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE, IT IS
LIKELY THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ASSUMING
FORECAST MODELS ARE ACCURATE. ALSO, WE COULD SEE SOME BLOWING DUST
ACROSS THE BLACK ROCK AND SMOKE CREEK DESERTS. THIS COULD POSE A
HAZARD FOR THOSE IN BLACK ROCK CITY AS VISIBILITY WORSENS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOYD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ONLY WARMING SLOWLY AS WE HEAD
TOWARD LABOR DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF TROUGH, CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, EACH MODEL RUN HAS NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT. TONIGHT, THE GFS IS MUCH FLATTER WITH SHORTWAVE
FEATURE AND KEEPS US QUITE DRY. THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. SO WE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION. AS FAR AS WINDS, THE FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA
WED-WED NIGHT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS WIND FOR THU-FRI. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20 KT TODAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH LAKES THIS MORNING, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO RETURN TODAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE
AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY
PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL
LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD/WH

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)


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