Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 281047
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
247 AM PST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A few snow showers may linger near the Oregon border today,
otherwise high pressure will bring dry conditions with light
winds this week. Cool temperatures today will be followed by a
slow warming trend through Friday. The next storm system may bring
rain, snow and gusty winds for the weekend, with more storms
possible next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

An area of light snow showers swept across the Surprise Valley and
far northwest NV earlier tonight associated with an upper trough
pushing across the Pacific Northwest. This activity appears to
have tapered off as weather sensors have not reported any new
precip since midnight. A few flurries remain possible through
today near the Oregon border but no additional accumulations are
expected.

For the rest of this week, high pressure ridge near the west
coast will keep dry conditions over the region. Cloud cover will
be limited through Thursday, followed by increasing cirrus Friday
as the ridge becomes flatter, then shifts to the east ahead of the
next storm system arriving this weekend.

Light winds will lead to limited mixing with some valley inversions,
but these inversions are not expected to be very strong.
Temperatures today should remain below average with highs mainly
in the 40s for lower elevations and 30s near the Sierra, then a
warming trend will follow. By Thursday and Friday, most lower
elevations can expect highs in the 50s-lower 60s, with mid 40s-
lower 50s near the Sierra. Chilly nights will continue through
Wednesday night, then some moderation is expected later in the
week. MJD

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...

The weekend into the middle of next week continues to trend wetter
and windier and the forecast was updated to reflect this. An upper
low drops south out of the Gulf of Alaska and ends up sitting off
the Pacific Northwest coast, sending multiple shortwaves through
northern CA/NV Sunday through Wednesday. This combines with a
weak atmospheric river (AR) moisture tap directed at the Pacific
Northwest. While the deepest moisture is never directed much
farther south of the Oregon border, the sagging jet stream and
shortwaves are able to bring some of this moisture into northeast
California, the northern Sierra, and northwest Nevada. This is
reflected in AR ensemble detection which has been showing some
signal of moisture plumes making it as far south as 35N with each
passing shortwave.

With the jet stream directed across northern CA/NV we are likely
going to see breezy conditions for the weekend and into next week.
Model guidance is showing periods where 700 mb winds may reach 60+
kts, which could translate to strong winds. However at this point,
it is hard to pinpoint exactly which time frames will see the
strongest winds. Winds have the potential to impact travel for
high profile vehicles and bring turbulence and wind shear for
aviation. In addition, plan for choppy conditions on area lakes
throughout the period.

Snow levels look to vary for each of the shortwaves, dependent on
how far south the jet makes it and whether the region is on the warm
side or cold side of the jet. At this point, it seems that
mountain snow and valley rain would be the most likely outcome,
with the lowest snow levels closer to the Oregon border. -Dawn

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions through the Sierra and northwest Nevada early
this morning, though isolated light snow flurries have been
passing through areas closer to the Oregon border. These are
likely bringing brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions along with
mountain obscuration, which should be cleared out of the area by
mid-morning. There is also patchy freezing fog early this morning
through the Martis Valley, including KTRK, which should dissipate
between 17-18z.

The remainder of the work week will feature tranquil conditions with
generally light winds and mainly VFR conditions as a ridge builds
into the west. Patchy freezing fog at KTRK remains possible each
morning. -Dawn

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno


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