Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 112330
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
330 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY A FEW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. A MODERATE WINTER STORM IS
POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK WITH GUSTY WINDS,
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND HAS CHANGED LITTLE SO
CHANGES WERE VERY FEW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ALONG
THE WEST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANY SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO
BE SHUNTED WELL NORTH INTO WASHINGTON. PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AND MAY MODERATE TEMPERATURES AT TIMES.

OVERALL, WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
RECORDS MAY BE TOUGH TO REACH. THIS IS DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN
MUCH COOLER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND HAVE CUT BACK
TEMPS A LITTLE FOR TOMORROW GOING BELOW GUIDANCE. WITH A LITTLE
COOLING ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS, RECORDS
AGAIN WILL BE TOUGH IN MOST PLACES, BUT IT WILL REMAIN 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES POP UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
REGARD TO AN INCOMING PACIFIC SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK
FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, IT JUST MAY ARRIVE 6-12 HOURS LATER
DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION IS CHOSEN.

BACKING UP TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA DRY WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. AS FAR AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MONDAY, I
EASED THEM DOWN A FEW DEGREES (BELOW MUCH OF GUIDANCE) FOR MANY
VALLEYS AS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW BELOW 700 MB SHOULD RESTRICT MIXING.
ALSO, MOS OFTEN OVERDOES WINTER HIGHS WITH STRONG RIDGES OVERHEAD
AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

TUESDAY, FLOW ALOFT TURNS AROUND THE SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BUMP IN VALLEY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 5-9 DEGREES, WITH UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS. IF MIXING IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD AS EXPECTED, THE
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS IN SOME AREAS MAY BE OVERSHOOTING BY SEVERAL
DEGREES SO CONSIDER IT A BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR HIGHS TUESDAY.

CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST. HIGHS FALL UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES OVER TUESDAY WITH COLDER
AIR ALOFT AND CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE REGION, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL REMAIN 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ALSO BREAK OUT IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN THE
SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, ALTHOUGH THE 00/12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE 12Z GFS IN THIS REGARD AS THE FORMER IS SLOWER AND DEEPER
WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH.

ON THURSDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON INTENSITY AND TIMING WITH
THE ECMWF STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE UPPER LOW VERSUS AN
ELONGATED, MORE DISJOINTED TROUGH AXIS IN THE 12Z GFS. THE 18Z GFS
HAS LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF BUT IT IS STILL 7 DAYS OUT SO WE WILL
AWAIT MODEL CLARITY. WHILE QPF MAY BE AFFECTED SUBSTANTIALLY,
CURRENT PROGS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA WITH THE FROPA SO I HAVE KEPT CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY POP FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND THE SIERRA, RESPECTIVELY. IN ANY
CASE, IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR MID-FEBRUARY. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PASSING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE SIERRA AND
NORTHWEST NEVADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AT THE SURFACE WITH
MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS OVER
RIDGES. SNYDER/DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)


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