Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
FXUS65 KREV 302107
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
207 PM PDT MON MAY 30 2016
High pressure will lead to summer conditions with afternoon highs
in the 80s for the Sierra and 90s across western Nevada this week.
Afternoon highs will approach record levels near the end of the
week. The threat for showers and thunderstorms returns for end
of the week.
Chance for thunderstorms along the Sierra Crest south of US-50 is
looking rather minimal for late this afternoon and into this
evening. Warming aloft and a lack of moisture will likely limit
convective development to towering cumulus clouds. However a few
sprinkles may still occur.
Tuesday and Wednesday will feature a strong area high pressure
moving over the Sierra and western Nevada. This will drive
temperatures into the 90s for the valleys with upper 70s and 80s
for the Sierra. The warmer temperatures will increase melting rate
of the high elevation snowpack and a gradual increase in flows on
creeks and rivers over the next 7 days.
As the ridge shifts a bit east on Wednesday, models are trying to
develop a round of afternoon/evening thunderstorms roughly from
Minden-Yerington-Schurz south into Mono and Mineral Counties.
Subsidence from the ridge may be a bit too strong yet to get deep
convective development, so will keep the chance for showers and
thunderstorms at 10%. Brong
.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
Overall made little change to the forecast with the latter half of
the week seeing a strong ridge over Nevada slowly moving east over
the weekend. This will allow an upper low to move into California
with some instability and the threat for thunderstorms.
Thursday through Saturday look very warm with record high
temperatures possible. Temps will reach well into the 90s in the
lower valleys of Western NV and NE CA with 80s common in the Sierra
valleys. Winds are expected to remain light with the ridge with only
a weak late day zephyr possible.
The low starts to near late Saturday which may trigger isolated
thunderstorms from Mono County into the Pine Nuts. Sunday looks to
be a much better day for convection as the low moves overhead or
just to the south. Monday the low slowly progresses east, but there
will be enough moisture and instability in its wake for a few storms
north of I-80. Temperatures will cool as the low moves in with highs
dropping a good 10 degrees or more by Sunday, but still remaining a
little above average. Wallmann
VFR conditions expected through Wednesday with light winds overall
except for some north winds near 10kts in the afternoons. A bit of a
zephyr returns Wednesday with peak gusts to 20 kts from the west. No
convection is expected through Wednesday with only some flat cumulus
or maybe a buildup or two. Wallmann
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