Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 250505
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1005 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 138 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

West flow aloft with weak ridging over the western U. S. will bring
drying as clouds and showers will gradually dissipate tonight and
Saturday with partial clearing. Warming will occur Saturday night
and Sunday. Late Sunday night and Monday rain and high elevation snow
will return to the western mountains as a Pacific trough approaches
the west bringing increased moisture and stronger winds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 138 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

A cold front will move southward across the area on Monday night.
However, like the night shift stated, it still looks to split and
keep any amounts of precipitation on the light side, certainly any
snow looks largely sub advisory at this point. The big change will
be some cooler air coming in behind the front. But notice how I said
cool, not cold. Temperatures will fall, but only back to near to
slightly above normal levels. Any precipitation should then end by
late Monday night.

Transitory ridging will then move into the area for Tuesday before
the next system moves in for Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this
point, we like the timing of the European model since the GFS is
notorious for rushing precipitation in way too fast this far out.
The models on this run have backed off on amounts though. However,
this is the first time they have shown this so we will not make a
lot of changes. It is also another quick hitter, in step with the
fast moving, progressive pattern we have had over the past couple of
weeks. At this point, the best snow would likely occur Wednesday
morning before tapering off in the afternoon and ending on Wednesday
night. There is a better chance for some snow in the lower
elevations this time, however, given the cooler temperatures that
will likely be in place. There looks to be another dry period for
Thursday. As for Friday, the models have trended a bit slower with
the next system approaching from the southwest, around 12 hours
slower. We maintained some POPS in the far west for Friday and
Friday night, but kept them in the slight chance category until we
get closer to the event.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday)
Issued at 1000 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

East of the Divide...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL Routes

VFR conditions to prevail at the terminal sites through the period.

West of the Divide...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS Routes

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminal sites through the
period. Patchy fog and low clouds are possible through 17Z with MVFR
or IFR conditions.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center for the latest information on
icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued AT 138 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

West flow aloft with weak ridging over the western U. S. will bring
drying as clouds and showers will gradually dissipate tonight and
Saturday with partial clearing. Warming will occur Saturday night
and Sunday. Late Sunday night and Monday rain and high elevation snow
will return to the western mountains as a Pacific trough approaches
the west bringing increased moisture and stronger winds.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Hattings
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...Baker


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