Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 091709
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
909 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. SLOW COOLING LATE THIS WEEK TO CLOSER TO NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS. PRECIPITATION MAY
RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 AM PST...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHERN
NEVADA...STRETCHING NORTH INTO IDAHO. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA. THE 09/1200 UTC KNKX SOUNDING DISPLAYED
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS...AND CALCULATED A
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.19 INCHES. EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 MPH WERE OBSERVED THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG
COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY OF 75
DEG F FOR SANTA ANA FIRE STATION WAS THE WARMEST DAILY MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED DURING THE WINTER SEASON. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 73 WAS SET IN 2009. THREE OF THE PREVIOUS 10 WARMEST
DAILY WINTER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE SET IN 2015...WITH TWO IN
1983 DURING THE 1982-83 EL NINO. RECORDS FOR SANTA ANA FIRE
STATION GO BACK TO 1916.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PEAK TODAY OVER THE REGION AT AROUND
587 DM AT 500 MB. THIS...AND BREEZY DOWNSLOPING OFFSHORE
WINDS....WILL HELP RAISE INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25 DEG F
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS WHERE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE SET TODAY BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...

LOCATION          FORECAST (F)  RECORD (F)

NEWPORT BEACH        80        77 IN 2002
SAN DIEGO            83        77 IN 2008
VISTA                89        81 IN 2012
CHULA VISTA          87        83 IN 1954
ESCONDIDO            91        86 IN 1991
EL CAJON             89        86 IN 2006
RAMONA               86        83 IN 1988
ALPINE               84        82 IN 1991

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAIN
FAIRLY STATIONARY ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWERING
HEIGHTS WILL HELP LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH 5 TO 15
DEG F ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT PRECIPITATION MAY RETURN TO THE AREA SOMETIME
AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
091545Z...CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY
IN THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH 22Z. POCKETS OF LLWS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...
745 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES TODAY...WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MIN RH
VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL RISE TO 15 TO 25 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL...THEN LOWER TO 5
TO 15 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE
NOT FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE FORE GROWTH...THEREFORE NO FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE


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