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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191856
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH NORTH
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO
THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND OVER
THE LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIMITED BUT ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
THE LOCAL EFFECT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS MOISTURE INCREASED SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS TREND OF INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO SINCE THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS. FOR
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...A BIT MORE SHOWERY AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS
INDICATED BY THE GFS MODEL...CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS A
LARGER PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA WILL CAUSE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS IN AND AROUND TJMZ UNTIL 19/22Z. THEREAFTER...SKIES WILL
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH EASTERLY WINDS AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS. AFTER 20/16Z ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
THAT SHOULD AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO WINDS OF UP TO
20 KNOTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 5 FEET OR LESS. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  87  77  85 /  20  20  20  40
STT  77  88  78  88 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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