Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 050214
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1014 PM AST TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS TO VARIABLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDED
INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE WESTERN PUERTO RICO...THEN MOVED
OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE AVAILABLE SURFACE MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...AND THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE USVI OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR. MINOR
CHANGES WERE INTRODUCE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITE DURG PRD. SCT-BKN CLD
LYRS...020...050 TIL 05/12Z ACROSS FLYING AREA UNDER PREVAILING
MODERATE ENE TRADE WIND FLOW. FEW TCU TOPS 160-180...MVFR CONDS PSBL
W/PASSING SHRA TIL 05/14Z EN ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. L/LVL
WNDS FM ENE BLO FL200. SFC WND FM E 10 KTS OR LESS TIL 05/12Z...INCR
TO 10-20 KTS W/OCNL HIGH GUSTS AFT 05/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS EXPOSE WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. ELSEWHERE...
MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM AST TUE AUG 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS THRU FRIDAY. MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ON BY LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY.

DISCUSSION...BY MID AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. AFFECTING MANLY THE MUNICIPALITIES OF
PONCE WEST TO SABANA GRANDE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED ALSO
IN STREAMERS FORMING OFF THE USVI AND REACHING SECTIONS OF EASTERN
PR. HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT AS OF 3
PM AST.

LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERALL AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
HOLDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...AS RIDGE WEAKEN EXPECT PASSING
TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE USVI AND WINDWARD AREAS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AS TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROF...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WATERS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.

AVIATION...VFR XPCTD THRU WED XCP IN SCT SHRA/TSRA WEST PR INCL
TJMZ WED AFT. WINDS BLW FL100-SFC E-ENE 16-24 KT GRADUALLY BCMG
E 12-20 KT TONITE-WED.

MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS 4-6 FEET DECREASING TO 3-5 FEET IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

FIRE WEATHER...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. SPECIALLY NEAR THE CAMP SANTIAGO AREA
WHERE RH VALUES REACHED THE UPPER 40S AND STRONG WINDS PERSISTED
THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  80  90 /  20  20  20  20
STT  79  89  78  89 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/27


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