Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 091911
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD MID
NEXT WEEK. A PAIR OF EASTERLY WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. SAL WILL ESTABLISH FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO WITH EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
U.S.G.S GAUGES SHOWED 3.2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR OVER RIO GRANDE DE
ANASCO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED NEAR
SUNSET. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LOCATED TO OUR WEST...AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS. FOR TOMORROW...A SLOT OF DRY AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL
AREA...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY AND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...VERY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SAHARAN AIR LAYER ALSO EXPECTED TO DOMINATES THE REGION. IN THE
LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT JMZ AND JBQ THROUGH 09/22Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE
E AT 10-15 KNOTS FROM SFC UP T0 20 KFT.
&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON FOR FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 002...014...015 AND 025.
REFER TO LATEST RFWSJU PRODUCT FOR LATEST INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  91  80  90 /  10   0  50  50
STT  80  89  80  91 /  10   0  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CULEBRA-SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND-
     SOUTHERN HILLS.

VI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ST CROIX.

COASTAL WATERS...&&

$$

05/71




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