Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 312154
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
354 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OUT OF NEVADA AND INTO
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.



&&

.DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN NEVADA AND INTO
WESTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN
FAIRLY QUIET CONVECTION-WISE...THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS MOVING OFF OF THE UINTA MOUNTAINS AND THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TOWARD LAKE POWELL. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UTAH. MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHETHER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT SOME
20-30 PERCENT POPS IN PLACE...PRIMARILY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL UTAH.

BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE...THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO 0.5-0.6
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY QUIET CONVECTIVE DAYS...THOUGH A FEW STORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE INITIATING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD ALSO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK IN MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH SOME CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH ON SATURDAY AND MAY COOL TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO UTAH FROM THE
SOUTH BEGINNING SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH ON SUNDAY...THEN OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS MOISTURE AND THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THIS PAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND COOLING
ALOFT. HAVE ALSO INCREASED POPS A BIT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
WAVE.

MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AFTER
THE SHORTWAVE FINALLY LEAVES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE
LOOKS TO RE-CENTER OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY...BRINGING
TEMPS BACK UP TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING
THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH 06Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH NORTH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH BY 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WET THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FIRE
DISTRICT AS A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. SLIGHT DRYING TOMORROW
AND SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO STORMS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED BEFORE THE
NEXT MOISTURE SURGE ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. BOTTOM LINE...FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES NOT ESPECIALLY SIGNIFICANT DUE TO MOISTURE...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
FIRE WEATHER...CHENG
AVIATION...SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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