Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 251050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
450 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Moisture over southern Utah will spread northward
through Friday. Drier air will return for the weekend and early next


.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)...Latest water vapor loop shows
an upper trough has carved south into southwest Idaho early this
morning and is starting to turn more southeasterly towards northern
Utah. Midlevel clouds have started to increase over Utah and Nevada
ahead of this trough, with a few weak showers already developing
underneath some of these clouds. While PWATs remain near or under a
half inch across much of west-central and northern Utah this
morning, PWATS of 0.6-0.8 inches currently exist across southern and
east-central Utah and will spread farther north today as southwest
flow aloft increases ahead of the trough. As a result, expect
showers to increase into the afternoon hours. The bulk of the
precipitation will likely remain across southern and central Utah
today. However, with the vort max tracking across northern Utah and
some jet support across northeast Utah, cannot rule out a few
thunderstorms over the Wasatch Range this afternoon. Showers up
north will likely be drier and produce gusty outflow winds as the
lower levels remain quite dry.

The moisture will remain in place over the area tomorrow, perhaps
increasing a bit up north. Another shortwave trough is progged to
cross the area tomorrow, providing another driving force for
enhanced convection. Still, much of northwest Utah looks to remain
on the dry side with most showers concentrating over the spine of
Utah, the eastern valleys, and southern Utah. Although H7
temperatures climb slightly, the unsettled weather both today and
tomorrow will keep the airmass on the cooler side.

As the second trough exits the area tomorrow night, a drier airmass
will start to spread into the area in its wake. While there will be
lingering convection on Saturday, the focus will shift to the south
where the moisture will become increasingly confined. Furthermore, a
weak disturbance is progged to slide across northern Arizona,
although the position of this wave has trended farther south than
some earlier runs.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 18Z SUNDAY)...Building heights can be expected
Sunday afternoon as ridging sets up across the Interior West. This
ridge will remain in place through at least Tuesday. A trough and
attendant ~100kt jet streak will approach the coast Tuesday
afternoon. As mid-level moisture increases across far southern Utah
Wednesday, expect an increase in convection across the southern
mountains. As this moisture surge reaches central and even northern
Utah Thursday, expect an increase in convective coverage up to the
Utah/Idaho border.  Started to increase pops above climo Thursday
afternoon. If model guidance continues to remain consistent, pops
will likely increase further for the first day of meteorological


.AVIATION...Southerly winds at the SLC Terminal are expected
to shift to the northwest between 17-19Z. Expect convection to
remain east of the terminal today.


.FIRE WEATHER...Moisture over far southern and southeastern Utah
early this morning will start to spread north again today ahead of
an approaching trough. Although the bulk of showers and
thunderstorms today will occur across southern and central Utah with
some capable of producing wetting rain, isolated dry storms are
possible over the northern mountains this afternoon. The moisture
will remain in place on Friday as another weather disturbance
crosses the area. This will allow for another round of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms across most areas but northwest
Utah. A drier airmass will start to spread in on Saturday and settle
over the entire fire district for the first half of next week.


.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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