Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 221020
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
420 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND
COULD LINGER ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY)...A LARGE RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING...KEEPING UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING IN A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS DRY AIRMASS HAS MOVED
INTO PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATING THAT ONLY THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH HAS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN HALF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A HOT AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE CWA.

THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS EVEN A 100 DEGREE DAY FOR
THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF UTAH COULD BE SLOWED BY A GOOD MOISTURE SURGE FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH
THIS EVENING...AND WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
IN EARNEST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND CLOUD
COVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH ANY INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS
THAT FORM WILL LIKELY BE DRY DUE TO THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT THIS IS MERELY A CLOUD STORM
OVERNIGHT...WITH ANY TRUE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HOLDING OFF UNTIL
THE BETTER SOLAR HEATING HOURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY...AS A PACIFIC TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH IDAHO AND
MONTANA...PUSHING A SHALLOW COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH AND
LIKELY COOLING OFF TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE DRY ZONAL FLOW THAT FORMS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINED PRIMARILY TO SOUTHEAST UTAH
ON FRIDAY...BUT THIS PATTERN WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED...AS
THE NEXT LARGE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SATURDAY)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE
THE RIDGE AXIS NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND...DELIVERING A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WARM UP IN THE NORTH...ALLOWING SALT LAKE TO
NUDGE CLOSE ANOTHER 100-DEGREE DAY AROUND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 18-20Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE SMOKE FROM NEARBY
WILDFIRES RESULTS IN A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
REDEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
WESTERN UTAH THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE TUESDAY
EVENING WITH LITTLE INITIAL CHANCE OF RAIN...THUS PROMOTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF DRY LIGHTNING IN SEVERAL SOUTHERN ZONES HAVING CURED
FUELS. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH ON
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL ACROSS POCKETS OF WESTERN
UTAH ON WEDNESDAY FOR WINDS TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT ISSUING ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS REGION. LIGHTNING MAY ALSO CREATE A HAZARD FOR
SEVERAL ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN
REMAINS LOW TO NIL IN MANY AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ478-492-495.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHOENING
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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