Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 252100
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
200 PM PDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms again today, mainly over the
higher elevations. Dry and warmer by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The large upper trough that has kept the cool and unsettled
weather pattern going across the region over the past several days
remains overhead NorCal, but most of the energy has consolidated
into a closed low that is now just off the SoCal coast near
Vandenberg. This low will move east into the lower Colorado River
Valley today before lifting out into the central Plains by the end
of the week, gradually replaced over NorCal by ridging from the
eastern Pacific.

With the lack of a larger scale trigger, deep convection today
as a result of orographic lifting will be mostly confined to the
mountains. There is some potential that showers and thunderstorms
that initiate over the Coast Range this afternoon may propagate
into western portions of the valley (mostly to the west and
northwest of Sacramento) late in the day.

The trend will be for less mountain convection each day heading
into the holiday weekend with temperatures returning to around
average late-May readings.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)
Temperatures will be heating up for the second half of the
holiday weekend as trough axis moves off to the east and ridge
begins to build in. Valley temperatures early next week will be in
the 90s with mountain temperatures in the 60s and 70s. This will
be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal for late May. Ridge should
also lead to dry weather and mostly clear skies for Sunday through
Tuesday. Models still hinting that ridge may begin to break down
by the end of the period with perhaps a return of mountain
showers, but uncertainty remains at this point. Have kept forecast
dry for now.

CEO

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions for TAF sites with winds generally 10kts or
less this evening into Thursday. Areas of MVFR to locally IFR
conditions over higher terrain in scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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