Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 032314
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
414 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE FOR
EARLY AUGUST. SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY PLEASANT AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURE-WISE, WITH BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. AT 3 PM, MOST OF THE VALLEY
TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 80S.

A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORCAL TOMORROW. FOR TUESDAY
MORNING, THE ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE DELTA MEANS THAT
MARINE STRATUS MAY MOVE FARTHER INTO THE DELTA REGION DURING
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, THE BIGGER CONCERN IS WHETHER
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY MIGHT GET TRIGGERED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS
YESTERDAY SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL STAY NORTH
AND EAST OF OUR CWA, BUT WE MAY SEE ACTIVITY ALONG THE COASTAL
RANGE IN WESTERN SHASTA AND TEHAMA COUNTIES...AND ALSO NEAR THE
LASSEN PARK AREA IN EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT CURRENT WILDFIRES AND
CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS.

WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES (BUT STILL NEAR AVERAGE) AND DRY
WEATHER. MEANWHILE, A CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPINNING OFFSHORE AND
WILL NUDGE INTO THE WEST COAST THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LOW IS
LOOKING TO BE BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRONGER THAN THE TUESDAY
SYSTEM. IT COULD TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  JBB

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LOW PRESSURE STORM MOVING
INTO NORCAL ON FRIDAY. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS STORM IS THAT IT
COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER WAVE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH WILL
AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR WILDFIRES WHILE ALSO IMPACTING OUTDOOR
RECREATION. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE BEST POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND COASTAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING THE MODELS CLOSELY TO SEE IF
VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY BE AFFECTED, TOO. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
THIS STORM. THE GFS PW VALUES ARE ONLY PEAKING BETWEEN 0.75-0.95
INCHES, THEREFORE, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE WET.

OVER THE WEEKEND, A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
NORCAL KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.  JBB

&&

.AVIATION...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
AND DRY WEATHER. ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE VALLEY IS PRODUCING WINDS
BETWEEN 8-18 KTS FOR TAF SITES. SW WINDS BEGINNING TO PICK UP IN
THE DELTA REGION WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING. SCT-BKN015 CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN THE DELTA REGION AND INTO
THE SACRAMENTO METRO AREA 14-17Z TUESDAY MORNING.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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