Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 130612
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1010 PM PST Tue Dec 12 2017

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather into early next week with chilly nights in
the valleys.

&&

.Discussion...

Update: Evening update to lower min temps in the valleys tonite due
to strong radiational cooling. Most areas likely to fall to near
persistence in the valley, while higher elevations will remain in
the temp inversion, and a lot milder. A few thin high clouds will
drift SEwd over Norcal thru Wed due to the strong anticyclonic flow
but they should not have any influence in limiting cooling tonite
and warming tomorrow.  JHM

Strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains in control of
the region. As a result, dry conditions will persist across
interior NorCal. Models show the ridge retrograding west through mid-
week, then upper ridging weakens as shortwave energy moves across
the Pacific Northwest on Friday. However, precipitation associated
with this system will remain north of our area. This system will
bring some cooling across the area but highs will remain above
normal.

Little overall temperature change expected through the end of the
week with dry and mild weather continuing under a strong
subsidence inversion. Temperatures will remain 5-15 degrees above
normal for this time of the year. Daytime highs across the
Central Valley are expected to be in the 60s, except for low to
mid 70s over the northern Sacramento Valley where record high
temperatures could be possible.

Chilly overnight temperatures will continue in the Central Valley
beneath shallow nocturnal radiative inversions that develop each
night with patchy frost likely.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)

Upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather through the
weekend with dry conditions. High pressure rebuilding inland
Saturday will lead to some breezy northerly wind that lingers
into Sunday. Above normal high temperatures continue over the
weekend. Models diverge early next week with EC maintaining more
ridging aloft into midweek, while GFS drops a short wave trough
into the area Wednesday. With low confidence this far out in the
forecast period, will maintain a dry forecast for now and
continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions over Interior NorCal next 24 hours except local
MVFR/IFR conditions in BR/FG Southern Sacramento and Northern San
Joaquin Valleys between 08z-18z. Winds generally below 10 knots.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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