Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 141645
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
845 AM PST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK.
WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED MIDDLE-TO-LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A ridge of high pressure will remain over most of the region
as a low pressure area moves to the north of the area today.
Some light showers or sprinkles may occur over the far northern
interior mountains of Shasta County and places to the north during
the day. Northerly winds will increase today with the strongest
winds 15 to 25 mph over the western portions of the valley and
coastal range with higher gusts. Tonight northeast to east gusty
winds will develop through favored canyons and over peaks for
the western slopes peaking at 30 to 40 mph late this evening.

Temperatures will warm the next couple of days peaking on Monday
and Tuesday. Near record and record temperatures are expected during
that time period throughout all the interior. Some temperatures
may be come close to record highs on today from around Sacramento
southward but are expected to end up a couple of degrees shy.

RECORDS TO WATCH MONDAY.
Redding Airport.....79 set in 2015
Red Bluff...........79 set in 1977
Sacramento..........76 set in 1977
Sacramento Exec.....76 set in 1977
Stockton............76 set in 1977
Modesto.............75 set in 1991

RECORDS TO WATCH TUESDAY.
Redding Airport.....78 set in 2015
Red Bluff...........77 set in 1957
Sacramento..........76 set in 1977
Sacramento Exec.....75 set in 2007
Stockton............76 set in 1977
Modesto.............78 set in 1943

Northerly winds are expected to continue on Monday but will be
lighter at 15 mph or less within the valley. Wednesday is when we
will start to notice a change in the weather pattern. Winds will
become breezy to windy as a storm system approaches and moves into
the area. Slight chances of light precipitation will start along
the coastal range in the morning with rain becoming likely for
the afternoon for most locations. The heaviest rainfall associated
with this storm will move through Wednesday night. Some
thunderstorms may be possible as the front moves through late at
night and Thursday morning. Snow looks to start out between 5500
and 6500 feet but lower during Wednesday night down to near 3000
feet by Thursday morning. There could be a couple of feet of new
snow by Thursday afternoon above 6000 feet with lessor amounts
down to 3000 feet.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

Medium range models remain in pretty good agreement later this
week. Upper trough forecast to shift east Thursday with showers
continuing across interior NorCal, especially over the mountains.
Potential for significant mountain travel impacts with snow
levels 4000-5000 feet. Additional systems possible Thursday night
and later Friday, with main precip chances remaining further
north. Upper ridge forecast to build along the West Coast next
weekend with a return to dry and milder weather.

&&
&&

.AVIATION...

Upper ridge builds offshore with northwesterly flow aloft. VFR
conditions for interior NorCal next 24 hours except for local MVFR
visibilities possible in the Central Valley south of KSMF until
about 17Z. Northerly surface winds 10-20 kts develop by 20Z and
continue into Monday with areas of gusts 25-30 kts possible thru
about 02Z Monday.
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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