Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 301143

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
343 AM PST MON NOV 30 2015

Another cold morning today. A few showers are possible through
Wednesday. The next storm system arrives Thursday with wet and
windy weather.


Clear skies earlier, but clouds ahead of a weakening system are
beginning to move across NorCal and it`s another cold early
morning across the region. Current temperatures through the
Central Valley range from the mid 20s to lower 30s. Redding and
Red Bluff have already broken their record lows for the date, and
most other valley sites are currently within a couple degrees of
setting record lows. Widespread freeze over the weekend precludes
issuance of freeze warnings until trees begin to bud again by Feb,
or unless there is a massive Arctic outbreak before that time.

Offshore cold front will weaken today as it encounters the
blocking ridge currently over the West Coast. A few showers will
be possible, mainly across the Coast Range and northern portions
of the area, but only light accumulations expected. Air mass is
very dry and precip will be subjected to evaporation. Virga or
some sprinkles are not out of the question further south.

Dry weather will rule on Tuesday as ridging briefly rebuilds over
the region. Temperatures will warm a few degrees from today, but
areas of late night and early morning frost will once again be
possible through the valley.

Another weaker short-wave will move across the area Wednesday and
may result in some light warm-advection precipitation across the
far northern portion of the state.

Stronger system still on the horizon for Thursday with potential
for more significant precipitation and wind. Trend in the models
is for a little deeper system which may slightly slow its onset
across the area.


Late week wet system is on track to bring widepread rain,
significant mountain snow above 5000 feet and windy conditions.
Main challenge with this system is the exact timing. The GFS is
slower than the now more progressive ECMWF model to move this
system inland. Overall, though, there is general agreement that
this system will be across the area by early Thursday evening with
precipitation peaking sometime in the late evening/early morning
hours. Gusty winds are expected into the evening, and may cause
additional issues with power outages and poor visibility with snow
in the mountains. Snow continues over the Sierra into early Friday
with snow levels dropping below 5000 feet as showers begin to
taper off. By evening, this system should have exited the area.

Dry weather is expected for Saturday. The next system moves
through Sunday, but confidence is low in the details. At this
point it looks like it will be a weaker system, with less
precipitation and wind. EK



VFR conditions with generally light winds the next 24 hours. Mid
level clouds will move in later this morning, with sct-bkn050 in
the afternoon. EK


.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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