Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 280929

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
230 AM MST WED SEP 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An area of low pressure aloft will provide a chance of
showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. A slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms Friday will exist east of Tucson, then dry
conditions will prevail this weekend into early next week.


.DISCUSSION...Isolated light showers and a rumble or two of thunder
activity has been occurring this morning across SE AZ, moving north
around 30 mph. Water vapor imagery showed an upper low over srn
California with a weaker low about 500 miles west of the Baja Spur.
Imagery also showed that the mid-upper level parts of TS Roslyn has
broken away from the low level circulation and was moving NE toward
NW Mexico. This moisture will be moving across our area over the
next 24 hours.

For today...isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms as the
upper low continues to meander across southern California. Isolated
activity will once again be around tonight into Thursday morning,
especially from Tucson east.

The trof axis to our west will lift through the state on Thursday
keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms across mainly the
eastern two-thirds of the area. Localized heavy rainers, especially
in the mountains of Graham and Greenlee counties.

Drier southwest flow aloft will push moisture east of the area on
Friday, but enough will be around near the AZ/NM border on the last
day of Monsoon 2016 for a slight chance of afternoon showers/storms.

Dry weekend area wide as Pacific upper level trof pushes inland.
This feature will pass by to our north on Monday, keeping it dry,
but kicking up the afternoon breezes.

High temperatures at or slightly below normal thru early next week.


.AVIATION...Valid through 29/12Z.
Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA mainly east of a KCGZ, to KTUS, to
KOLS line thru the forecast period. Ceilings generally 7K-11K FT
AGL, with brief MVFR conditions and higher terrain obscurations on
occasion. Surface wind easterly to southerly at 5-12 kts with gusts
to near 25 kts at times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...A chance of thunderstorms exists area-wide through
Thursday evening, then a drying trend will begin late Thursday and
continue into this weekend. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms Friday will continue east of Tucson followed by dry
conditions Saturday through next Tuesday. Expect occasionally gusty
east winds through Thursday, then normal diurnal wind trends to
prevail Friday into early next week.





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