Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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212
FXUS65 KTWC 141514
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
814 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST WV/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH JUST A THIN VEIL OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS NOW ACROSS COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES AND NUDGING
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES JUST A TOUCH
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING BUT STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE AREA BEING ON THE EAST
FLANK OF THE RIDGE AXIS NOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WE WILL
LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL CIRRUS CLOUDINESS WHICH ARE NOW UPSTREAM TO
OUR NORTHWEST MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
CONTINUED WARMTH WHICH WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MANY RECORD HIGHS
LIKELY. THEREAFTER...SOME SLIGHT COOLING AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES IN ALOFT. EXPECT SOME INCREASED AFTERNOON
BREEZES LATE THIS WEEK BUT LITTLE MOISTURE WITH THE STORM TRACK
REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH. WE`LL JUST BE KEEPING OUR EYE ON ANY
MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC ON THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 15/18Z.
SKC-SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER 10 KTS THRU 14/17Z THEN
BECMG NW 8-15 KTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS MAINLY GILA RIVER
VALLEY. WIND EASING BELOW 10 KTS AGAIN AFTER 15/03Z.  AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...REACHING RECORD HIGH LEVELS AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  RH
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS
ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY WEAK NIGHT TIME RECOVERIES THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY WITH A BIT OF IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER.  GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

GL

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