Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 260910
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
210 AM MST FRI AUG 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Moisture will increase across the area today and
Saturday. This will lead to a noticeable upswing in showers and
thunderstorms today and this weekend. A few of the stronger
thunderstorms could bring heavy downpours and high winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Radar was showing a few lingering showers and
thunderstorms early this morning across the area. Most of the
activity was focused in the White Mountains and northwest of
Safford. Latest HRRR solution suggested that this area of showers
and thunderstorms will prevail through at least 15Z today.
Otherwise, the general trend of deeper moisture increasing today
into Saturday still looked on track. A low pressure system entering
southeastern California and passing through Arizona will interact
with this deeper moisture. As a result, a noticeable upswing in
thunderstorms can be anticipated today into the weekend. A better
vertical wind shear profile associated with the low will aid in
organizing and sustaining thunderstorms, some of which could produce
very heavy rainfall and strong winds. By Monday, the GFS model
tracks the upper low over central Arizona with the best chances of
rain focused across the eastern one-third of the state into New
Mexico. The flow pattern will remain favorable for daily
thunderstorms through at least next Thursday. Daytime temperatures
will hover near normal readings.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/12Z.
Sct-bkn clouds with bases at 9-13k ft agl. Isolated to scattered
-TSRA/-SHRA developing after 26/18z. Brief MVFR conditions possible
with the stronger storms. Partial clearing expected aft 27/05z.
Surface wind generally less than 12 kts, except for strong erratic
outflows with storms. Surface wind will be swly/wly in direction
during the afternoon and early evening hours today. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Increasing storm coverage is expected through the
weekend as moisture increases from the south/southeast. 20-foot
winds into early next week will be terrain driven and less than 15
mph in most locations. Expect the potential for strong and gusty
winds near any thunderstorms that do develop.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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