Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 262136
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
236 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...TAKING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AWAY FROM SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
AFTER A MILD AND SUNNY WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A MORE POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE ARE LATE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO TWO OR THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN WEST AND SOUTH
OF TUCSON TODAY. HOWEVER...RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF SE AZ THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST RAPIDLY EJECTS NORTHEAST...THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH SE AZ TONIGHT. THEREFORE THERE IS
STILL A FAIR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT CHANCES
WILL THEN DROP SIGNIFICANTLY...EVEN BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS...PERHAPS ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OVER FAR WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN A BIT OF FOG TOWARD SUNRISE...AND
CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN
LATER TUESDAY AND REALLY TAKE HOLD WEDNESDAY WHICH FIGURES TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE EASTERN AREAS OF SE AZ COULD
RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...AS WELL AS SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/00Z.
SCATTERED -SHRA WILL OCCUR ACROSS SE AZ THRU 27/04Z AFTER WHICH
-SHRA SHOULD END FROM SW TO NE THRU MID-MORNING. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND CEILINGS AS LOW AS 4K FT MAY OCCUR NEAR -SHRA. MVFR
VSBYS IN BR AND MT OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER DARK INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. EASTERLY SFC WINDS AT 8-12 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MID-MORNING TUESDAY WITH DIURNAL TRENDS RESUMING AT ALL TERMINALS
THEREAFTER. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE...WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE
OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY FOR THE GILA
RIVER VALLEY AND LOCATIONS ADJACENT THE NM BORDER.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...DROZD
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH





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