Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 242250
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
350 PM MST Mon Apr 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect strong and gusty winds Tuesday as a weather
system moves north of the area. This system may also bring a few
showers and thunderstorms to the White Mountains. Otherwise, dry
conditions will prevail through Thursday. Strong and gusty winds
will return Friday into Saturday along with a chance of showers east
of Tucson. Cooler Saturday followed by dry conditions with a warming
trend early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR satellite imagery depicted fairly thick mostly mid
and high-level clouds across central and northern Arizona this
afternoon. These thicker clouds will move southeastward into
southeast Arizona this evening and continue across the area into at
least Tuesday morning. Precip-free conditions will continue tonight,
then isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms may
occur across the White Mountains Tuesday.

The main concern Tuesday is regarding the potential for strong and
gusty mainly west west winds, especially from mid or late morning
into early Tuesday evening. Thus, a Wind Advisory has been issued
from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Tuesday for much of the area east of Tucson.
Clearing skies with diminishing winds Tuesday evening followed by
mostly clear skies and markedly less wind Wednesday. Expect mostly
clear skies to partly cloudy skies Thursday under northwest flow
aloft.

The 24/12Z GFS/ECMWF have trended drier versus previous solutions
during the Friday into Saturday period. Thus, PoPs were trended down
for the Tucson metro area versus the official forecast from 24 hours
ago. Have opted for a chance of showers across the White Mountains
Friday followed by a slight chance of showers, or a chance of
showers (mainly White Mountains) Friday night and Saturday.

However, the main impact from this deepening low pressure system
north of the area still appears to be a high likelihood for strong
winds to occur across much of the area Friday, then mainly across
eastern sections Saturday. Expect cooler temperatures Saturday, then
dry conditions with a warming trend Sunday into next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 26/00Z.
Expect isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA across the White Mountains
NE of KSAD Tuesday. Otherwise, SCT-BKN clouds above 20k ft AGL this
evening, then SCT-BKN clouds around 8k-14k ft AGL and BKN clouds
above 20k ft AGL late tonight into Tuesday afternoon. Clearing skies
should occur just after the valid period. Surface wind into this
evening and 15Z-23Z Tuesday swly-nwly 10-25 kts with gusts to 35
kts. Surface wind during the 04Z-15Z period mainly less than 12 kts
with generally a sly component. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 7 PM MST
this evening for the southeastern half of fire weather zone 151 and
for most of fire weather zone 152. The combination of strong and
gusty southwest to west winds, relative humidity in the single
digits to lower teens, and a high fire danger will create critical
fire weather conditions.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Tuesday for
the southeastern half of fire weather zone 152. The combination of
strong and gusty winds, low relative humidity and a high fire danger
may create critical fire weather conditions.

Critical fire weather conditions should occur Friday across a fairly
large portion of southeast Arizona. Field crews are strongly
encouraged to monitor subsequent forecasts for additional Fire
Weather Watch and/or Red Flag Warning issuances.

Otherwise, dry conditions through Thursday except for a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms near the White Mountains
Tuesday. There is a chance of showers across the White Mountains
Friday, then a chance of showers east of Tucson Friday night into
Saturday. Cooler temperatures will occur Saturday followed by dry
conditions with a warming trend Sunday into next Monday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ151-152.

    Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ152.

    Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ507>509-
      511>514.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Francis
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...French

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