Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 200845
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 AM MST SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER TODAY WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S FROM TUCSON WESTWARD BY MONDAY. GUSTY
WINDS AS A SYSTEM BRUSHES BY NORTH OF THE AREA AROUND MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS VALUES OF
AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. MODELS FORECAST PW`S TO FALL INTO
THE 0.40-0.50 INCH RANGE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE TROUGH TO JUSTIFY A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND PARTS OF
COCHISE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY ENOUGH DRYING FOR A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND WARMER THAN
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. THE NEXT WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE A PACIFIC TROUGH
THAT WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL BE A DRY SYSTEM...BUT IT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE
WINDS FOR TUESDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THIS COULD CAUSE
SOME CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW).

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTTOM
LINE IS FOR A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASING WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 2 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 9 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS WITH THE WARMEST MORNING OCCURRING ON TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LOWS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 21/06Z. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRYING TREND WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON TO A FEW EASTERN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. CONTINUED DRYING
INTO MONDAY AND MUCH WARMER.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF TUCSON...WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THEN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED. STAY TUNED.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE








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