Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 151933
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VALID 171200Z - 231200Z

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING SEVERAL TROUGHS ACROSS
THE CONUS DURING THE DAY 3-8 PERIOD. STRONGER DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN U.S. AND CANADA DURING THIS TIME.
ALONG WITH STRONGER FLOW REMAINING FURTHER NORTH...THIS PATTERN WILL
CONFINE STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH AS
WELL...RESULTING IN A NORTH AND WESTWARD ADVANCE OF LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL GREAT PLAINS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE
RESULT IS EXPECTED LOW FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE
OUTLOOK PERIOD.

TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK IN THE DAY 7-8/MON-TUE TIME
FRAME...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A STRONG TROUGH ENTERING THE
WESTERN U.S. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN ANY POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER IMPACTS REMAINS LOW DUE TO VERY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND POSITION OF THIS TROUGH BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
MODEL TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THIS SYSTEM AS FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN COULD INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
SOUTHWESTERN STATES DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

..LEITMAN.. 04/15/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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