Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 222157

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

An active upper pattern over the western CONUS is expected to
support the potential for critical fire weather conditions across
portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains through a
majority of the extended forecast period.

...Day 3/Monday - Day 8/Saturday: Portions of the Southwest and
Southern High Plains...
Strong mid-level westerly flow will extend across the Southwest on
Day 3/Monday as a belt of enhanced winds remains over the western
CONUS. The 70%/critical area has been expanded westward to include
much of NM and portions of eastern AZ, where strong/gusty winds will
overlap with lowered RH values and dry fuels Monday afternoon.

For Day 4/Tuesday, a 70%/critical area has been introduced across
parts of southern NM into far west TX as an upper trough is forecast
to amplify over the High Plains. Latest guidance is in better
agreement with a likely corridor of strong low-level winds across
this area Tuesday afternoon, and downslope warming/drying will
likely encourage RH values to become critically lowered. While
critical meteorological fire weather conditions may extend farther
east into west TX, recent precipitation and green-up may temper a
greater fire weather threat with eastward extent. Have therefore not
included more of west TX in the 70%/critical area for Day 4/Tuesday.

By Day 5/Wednesday, the upper trough is forecast to move eastward
across the Plains, with enhanced westerly/northwesterly flow
remaining across the Southwest and southern High Plains. A
40%/marginal area has been maintained for Day 5/Wednesday across
portions of this region, with some model differences in the
placement of strongest low-level flow precluding a 70%/critical area
for now.

Increasing model spread by Day 6/Thursday and continuing through Day
8/Saturday regarding the evolution of the upper pattern over the
western CONUS precludes the introduction of any probabilities at
this time, although they may eventually be needed across some
portion of the Southwest and/or southern High Plains pending better
model agreement.

..Gleason.. 04/22/2017

...Please see for graphic product...

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