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FNUS28 KWNS 222045
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VALID 241200Z - 301200Z

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA SHOW A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND A
STRONG MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS REGIONS ON THURSDAY.  CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH THAT STRONG WINDS/LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH SOME THREAT
FARTHER S INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  A TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT A SIMILAR FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO ON FRIDAY ACROSS MT.
BY THIS WEEKEND...THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
THE CNTRL-SRN ROCKIES.  A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER
THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY IS SHOWN TO TRACK WESTWARD TO THE
S OF THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND THEN MOVE NWD THROUGH PARTS OF
THE WRN U.S THIS WEEKEND.  DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND IT APPEARS SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY ARE
MOST NOTABLE DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT DAYS.

...WIND/LOW RH...
CNTRL-NRN MT --- THURSDAY-FRIDAY
STRONG WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONT WILL FACILITATE
HEIGHTENED CONCERN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WINDS/LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DURING PEAK HEATING AND PERSISTING WELL AFTER DUSK.  STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND THE MAINTENANCE OF STRONG FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FROM THE MT/CANADIAN BORDER SWD INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN.

...DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
CONFIDENCE IS ADEQUATE TO INTRODUCE THE SCENARIO FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR ANOTHER DRY THUNDERSTORM EPISODE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA NWD INTO THE ORE CASCADES AND NEWD INTO THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE WITH THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION AND IN
TURN MAY SUPPORT THE PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR SMALLER-SCALE DETAILS
SUCH AS DRY THUNDERSTORMS.  DRY/WARM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
SEVERAL DAYS PRIOR TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THE AREA FROM
NRN CA NEWD INTO ID IS WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS AT THIS
TIME FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS.

..SMITH.. 07/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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