Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 282042
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 301200Z - 051200Z

A GENERALLY ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PERIOD IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AS A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE UPPER SYSTEMS MOVE EWD
FROM THE WRN CONUS AND STRONG SWLY LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

...GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
BEGINNING ON D4/TUE...STRONGER LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE FROM
THE ERN PACIFIC. ELEVATED CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF NV/UT AND NRN AZ...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS APPEARS TOO LOW FOR ANY DELINEATION ON D4/TUE.

ON D5/WED-D7/FRI...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC COAST AND MOVES EWD.
STRONG WSWLY FLOW WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN INTO
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING
THIS PERIOD SOMEWHERE FROM NERN AZ INTO NM AND PERHAPS INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. NO CRITICAL AREAS WERE DELINEATED DUE TO LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...BUT 40
PERCENT PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

FOR D8/SAT...PREDICTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE REGARDING THE EXTENT OF
LINGERING MODERATE/STRONG WSWLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THERE
IS SOME INDICATION THAN ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE
WEST. PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED FOR NEXT WEEKEND IF
MODEL TRENDS PERSIST.

...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...
ON D3/MON...ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS KS INTO SRN NEB...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT EXPECTED.
NO PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED OWING TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE
IN SUFFICIENT DURATION OF CRITICALLY LOW RH.

ON D5/WED...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A STRONG
SFC LOW MOVING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES AS
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. ELEVATED TO
POTENTIALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITHIN A DRY AND WINDY POSTFRONTAL REGIME. 40
PERCENT PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED IN THIS AREA...WITH THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY BEING THE EXTENT OF SUFFICIENTLY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR CRITICALLY LOW RH.

..DEAN.. 03/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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