Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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306
FNUS28 KWNS 112055
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 131200Z - 191200Z

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH
PLAINS ON D3/SAT...CONTINUING THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY ON D4/SUN. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW
QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST...LIKELY REACHING THE SRN PLAINS BY
D5/MON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS FROM D5/MON THROUGH LATE
D7/WED BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK. WHILE THIS RIDGE IS IN PLACE...AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN CA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS...PARTICULARLY ON
D5/MON MORNING.

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD -- FROM D3/SAT THROUGH D8/THU -- WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED AND DRY FUELS ALREADY IN PLACE...ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT
WILL PRIMARILY BE DETERMINED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS. SOME
BREEZY SLY/SELY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON D3/SAT ACROSS THE REGION BUT
CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS IN AREAS WHERE RH VALUES WILL BE
BELOW 15 PERCENT IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY AREAS. SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF FRONT ON D5/MON AND THEN
AGAIN FROM D6/TUE THROUGH D8/THU AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER... DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESULT IN LOW PREDICTABILITY. IF THE SCENARIO FOR D8/THU
CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS IS
REALIZED...A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY RESULT.

...SOUTHERN CA...
CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY THREAT AREAS BUT MODEL
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING A POTENTIAL
OFFSHORE WIND EVENT ON D4/SUN NIGHT INTO D5/MON MORNING. THREAT
AREAS MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.

..MOSIER.. 02/11/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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