Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 231651
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VALID 231700Z - 241200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ECNTRL NV...

...ECNTRL NV...
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CRITICAL AREA IN ECNTRL NV HAS BEEN TRIMMED
OWING TO SUSTAINED AFTERNOON WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 20 MPH.
THERE WILL BE A SHARP NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST GRADIENT OF MIDLEVEL WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS NV THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL PROMOTE STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS FARTHER NORTH AS VERTICAL MIXING DEEPENS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

...FAR SERN ORE...
ALTHOUGH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WETTING RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THIS AREA
YESTERDAY WILL PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE.  NEVERTHELESS...LONGER-TERM
DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND RECENT LIGHTNING WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCALES THAT DID NOT RECEIVE WETTING
RAINS.

...NERN ORE INTO WCNTRL ID...
OPTED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA.  ALTHOUGH MOST STORMS WILL PRODUCE WETTING RAINS
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH PW VALUES...THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERALL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG WITH FAST STORM MOTION /AOA 40
MPH/ SHOULD INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED IS CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR...ALLOWING FOR
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYERS THIS AFTERNOON.

...CNTRL UT...
CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT REGARDING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL UT THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF BETTER MONSOON MOISTURE.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
FORM WILL GENERALLY DEVELOP IN A DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
HIGH CLOUD BASES...SUPPORTING DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

..JIRAK.. 07/23/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0318 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL DAMPEN
SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE
NRN ROCKIES. FARTHER E...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS THE TN RIVER VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO A
DEEPENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. UPPER LOW
OVER THE MS RIVER DELTA WILL REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE WHILE
ELONGATING. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NRN
AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY.

...MUCH OF NV...FAR WRN UT...SERN ORE...SRN ID...SWRN WY...
MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE PACIFIC NW
UPPER LOW AND THE CNTRL ROCKIES HIGH...EXTENDING FROM NRN CA NEWD
INTO SRN ALBERTA. THIS ENHANCED FLOW WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUSTAINED SWLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL NV AND
SERN ORE. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED SPEEDS FROM 15-20 MPH
ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL NV. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
MID/UPPER FLOW...DEEP MIXING...AND A RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...GUIDANCE APPEARS UNDERDONE. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 25 MPH /POSSIBLY HIGHER/ SEEM MORE REASONABLE.
GUIDANCE ACROSS SERN ORE APPEARS REASONABLE WITH 25 MPH SUSTAINED
SWLY EXPECTED.

AIRMASS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MIN RH VALUES
FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS CNTRL NV WHERE
SOME SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RH WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS
CNTRL/E-CNTRL NV.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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