Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FNUS76 KLOX 270058
FWSLOX

Spot Forecast for Frazier Mountain Project piles...U.S.F.S.
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
558 PM PDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 PDT on March 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...Strong damaging northerly winds possible Monday night through
Tuesday morning...


.DISCUSSION...A weak frontal system will bring a chance of rain
showers to the Frazier Mountain burn area on Monday...with a slight
chance of showers lingering through Monday night. North winds will
increase rapidly Monday afternoon and evening...with strong winds
expected through early Tuesday morning. The peak in winds is expected
to occur Monday night with northerly gusts to around 50 mph. The
winds are expected to diminish as they shift to the northeast Tuesday
during the mid-morning to afternoon hours. Clear skies and warming
temperatures are expected Tuesday as the front shifts east of the
area...and humidities will drop to near 25% under the drying
northeast flow.

Temperatures will rise about another 10 degrees on Wednesday as an
upper ridge continues to build over the area...with humidities
dropping into the low 20s. Another weak trough will move southeast
across the California interior on Thursday...bringing some cooling
and a ten percent chance of showers to the Frazier Mountain area. A
return of offshore flow will be possible next weekend.


.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........43 to 48 percent.
Eye level winds.....North winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
                    increasing to 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20
                    mph.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to
                    30 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph with gusts
                    to 40 mph in the afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........North winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph
                    increasing to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL increasing to 5200 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 mph becoming north 30 mph.


.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
                    Slight chance of rain showers.
Min temperature.....Around 29.
Max humidity........75 to 80 percent.
Eye level winds.....North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    20 mph decreasing to 8 to 12 mph with gusts
                    to 15 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to
                    40 mph decreasing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts to
                    30 mph after midnight.
 Ridgetop...........North winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
                    decreasing to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 35 mph
                    after midnight.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL decreasing to 2200 ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....North 25 to 35 mph.


.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....57-62.
Min humidity........24 to 28 percent.
Eye level winds.....North winds 8 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
                    becoming 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 10 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph
                    in the morning becoming northeast 8 to 15 mph with
                    gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........North winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph early
                    in the morning becoming northeast 10 to 20 mph
                    with local gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3100 ft AGL increasing to 6200 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 15 to 25 mph.


$$
Forecaster...SMITH
Requested by...Frank Heilman
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705242.0/LOX
.EMAIL fheilman@fs.fed.us


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