Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1031 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

                VALID FEBRUARY 12 THROUGH FEBRUARY 17

...DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED THRU WEEKEND... POSSIBLE RAIN
SUNDAY/MONDAY...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A large high pressure system continues across the western
U.S. and centered over southern California this morning.  This
ridge will persist and move slowly eastward into the weekend
continuing the northwesterly upper level flow pattern across the
region. No rain is expected over the WGRFC area through the weekend.

By Saturday into early next week, this upper level ridge will be
along and just west of the Rocky Mountains, but flattens
considerably toward zonal flow with the trek of an upper level
shortwave disturbance across the Pacific northwest sweeping eastward
out of the Rockies across the southern plains. This will provide
sufficient lift and instability with enough moisture return for rain
chances across far east and northeast Texas late Sunday into early
Monday morning. Precipitation amounts will be very low, generally
around 0.25 inch over a 24 hour period. Therefore, no significant
flooding is expected with this activity.

By late Tuesday, the upper level high pressure ridge returns over
the area and will continue drier weather through the end of next
week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of East Texas.

Soil moisture has begun to decrease and soils have become somewhat
drier due to the lack of significant precipitation lately and warmer
than normal temperatures.  As a result, it would take a bit more
rainfall than usual for significant runoff to occur. Over Texas,
2% of the state is categorized as abnormally dry, but this amount is
expected to increase given the current dry weather pattern. Over New
Mexico, 9% of the state is abnormally dry, and that is mostly
confined to the western portions of the state.  No precipitation is
expected over the next 5 days so no runoff will occur.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
CART2 on the Elm Fork is expected to remain in minor flood stage as
dam releases continue to lower their pool elevation. Dam release
changes are expected next week.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
No significant precipitation is expected over the next 5 days.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


$$





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