Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 221607
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1106 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2017

               VALID SEPTEMBER 22 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 27

...WIDESPREAD RAIN FORECAST FOR WESTERN TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A ridge of high pressure remains entrenched over the state of Texas
this Friday morning, bringing hot and dry weather to much of the
state. However, a big change in the weather is in store, with a
strong upper level low pressure system now over the Intermountain
West. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this system has already
brought rain showers to the mountains of southern Colorado. A cold
front associated with this system will approach New Mexico this
weekend. This front will move eastward very slowly over the coming
week, and interact with tropical moisture. This will bring heavy
rain with the potential for flash flooding to eastern New Mexico
and western Texas starting this weekend and continuing well into the
coming week. Also, rain and snow showers will continue in the
mountains of southern Colorado.

The tropics continue to remain very active.  Hurricane Maria
is now a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
and continues to move towards the northwest at 9 mph. At this
time, this system is not expected to impact any portion of
the WGRFC region.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 1 to 2 inches are forecast for portions of eastern New
Mexico. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for a larger
part of eastern New Mexico, and for portions of far western Texas,
northeastern Mexico, and southwestern Colorado.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 3 inch are
forecast for portions of eastern New Mexico and the northwestern
Texas Panhandle. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for the
rest of the eastern half of New Mexico, and for portions of far
western Texas and southern Colorado.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are
forecast for most of the western third of Texas and for far eastern
New Mexico.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 4 inch are
forecast for most of the northwestern half of Texas. MAP amounts of
0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for most of southeastern New Mexico, for
southern Colorado, and further east in Texas to North Texas and the
Texas Hill Country.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 21%, and only 3% of Texas is
experiencing moderate drought conditions. In New Mexico, none of
the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions.  Drought relief
for western and southwestern Texas is likely with the forecast
rainfall. There will also be a potential for runoff and flash
flooding with this rainfall as well.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Toledo Bend Reservoir is currently releasing water for power
generation.  This is causing minor flood levels on the lower Sabine
River near Deweyville (DWYT2).

...Lavaca-Navidad Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Localized rainfall occurred over the last 24 hours along the Texas Gulf
Coast.  Higher than normal flows are currently occurring on the lower
Lavaca River at Ganado (GNDT2).  The river is currently near its crest
and is expected to begin falling later today.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Localized rainfall occurred over the last 24 hours along the Texas Gulf
Coast.  Higher than normal flows are currently occurring on the Tres
Palacious River near Midfield (MTPT2).

The remainder of the rivers across the WGRFC area are currently below
criteria levels.  No significant flooding is expected over the next
five days.  Flash flood events are possible along the Rio Grande each
day.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

PHILPOTT


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