Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 171634
1133 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

                   VALID APRIL 17 THROUGH APRIL 22


                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An upper air disturbance developed over the Colorado Rockies the past
24 hours and is moving into the Texas panhandle now.  This trough
produced rain, with snow at higher elevations, across Colorado and
northeast New Mexico.  Snow water equivalent readings of between
0.50 and 1.10 inches were noted over the eastern slopes of the
Rockies.  As this disturbance moves across Kansas and Oklahoma today
and tonight most of the showers associated with this trough will be
to the north of the WGRFC area.  Some rain may occur across northern
Texas but it will not be significant.  This disturbance will be east
of our region late tonight.  Meanwhile, a second upper disturbance
has been crossing south Texas.  This disturbance produced showers
and thunderstorms this morning along and near the middle and upper
Texas Gulf coast.  This disturbance will move east of the WGRFC area
this evening.

On Friday a weak ridge of high pressure will bring mostly dry weather
to the WGRFC area (except the far western portions).  But by Friday
night a new upper atmospheric low pressure system will be moving
through the Desert Southwest.  Moisture will be increasing ahead of
this disturbance, and rainfall will begin to develop across portions
of New Mexico and west Texas Friday night.  Then as the disturbance
moves eastward the rain is forecast to become fairly widespread (but
not necessarily heavy) on Saturday and Sunday across especially the
northwest half of Texas.  Since the upper disturbance will be
weakening as it moves over Oklahoma and Kansas by Sunday night only
light to moderate amounts of rainfall are expected from the storm
this weekend.  The upper level disturbance is forecast to move to
the east on Monday and the light rain will end.

A ridge of high pressure is forecast to develop over the Rocky
Mountains Monday night into Tuesday and mostly dry weather
conditions will result.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of southeastern
Texas.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for the
remainder of south central and southeast Texas into most of
Louisiana, as well as over north Texas into Oklahoma.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of southwestern Colorado into much of New
Mexico, and over southwest Texas.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of west and southwest Texas and extreme
southeast New Mexico.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast over the western two thirds of Texas, New Mexico and

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more
are forecast for portions of north Texas into Oklahoma, as well as
over extreme northern New Mexico.  The heaviest rain, with MAP
amounts of 0.50 inch, are forecast from near Childress TX to near
Wichita Falls TX.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast
over most of Texas (except for the Gulf coast and far west Texas),
northern Louisiana, northeast New Mexico, and most of Colorado.

The drought conditions have been deteriorating over the last several
weeks over most of the region.  Almost all of New Mexico and 82% of
Texas remain in some level of drought category. In addition, 29% of
Texas and 25% of New Mexico are in extreme drought.  Statewide, in
Texas, reservoirs are, on average, around 65% full.  This is
below average for this time of year, with average being about 80%
full.  There is considerable variability across the state, with many
of the reservoirs in the western half of the state below 50% full.
Due to the dry soil moisture conditions, the rainfall which is
forecast the next 5 days will not be heavy enough to produce
significant runoff.  Mainstem river flooding is not expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Toledo Bend Reservoir has discontinued 24/7 full power generation
until further notice.  Higher flows from earlier releases are
expected to keep the stage at Deweyville (DWYT2) sightly above minor
flood stage through early Friday then begin to fall back to low flow

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Amistad increased releases last week elevating flows along the
mainstem from Amistad downstream to Falcon Lake.  No significant
impacts are expected, although the river at Columbia Bridge (CBBT2)
is fluctuating above an action level for pumps and livestock in the
area.  The duration of Amistad releases is unknown at this time.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
More rainfall is expected today along the coast from Corpus Christi
to Houston/Beaumont and again this weekend, with heavier amounts far
west Texas moving northeast into north Texas in the WGRFC area.
There may be heavier localized amounts with any convective activity
including response from flashier streams. However, no significant
impacts are expected along the mainstems.

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:



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