Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 171632
1032 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2017

                 VALID JANUARY 17 THROUGH JANUARY 22


                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A line of showers and thunderstorms continue to impact portions of
the southeast Texas coast this morning. This activity is associated
with a stationary front that stretches from Deep South Texas up to
Louisiana. This boundary is expected to remain across the area
through Thursday, bringing a chance of significant rainfall to the
region once again. As a result, some additional higher than normal
flows and/or minor flooding is possible over this area.

Rain, on and off, remains in the forecast for southeast Texas
this week as this current area of low pressure moves slowly
eastward. As the disturbance moves closer to the WGRFC area on
Thursday, the stationary front will begin to move off towards
the east. Thereafter, this is expected to quickly end rainfall
from west to east on Thursday evening.

Rainfall amounts of 4.00 to 5.00 inches are expected through
Thursday across the eastern two-thirds of Texas. By Friday, a
temporary drying trend will begin across the region going into
the weekend, however the overall weather pattern will remain
someone active for the next several days.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of up to 3.00 inches are forecast for portions of Central
and East Texas.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of up to 2.00
inches are forecast for portions of East Texas. Mainly for areas
along and east of I-35.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of up to 0.50 inch
for East Texas.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch are
forecast for most areas across the WGRFC region...excluding the
Texas Panhandle and Big Bend.

There was a slight increase in the abnormally dry category in the
drought conditions noted in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for
Texas through January 10, 2017. While there was little change for
New Mexico. In Texas, the area considered to be abnormally dry is
now at 25%. Also, 6% of Texas is experiencing moderate drought
conditions and less than 1% remains in severe drought, particularly
over northeast Texas near the Red River. In New Mexico the drought
monitor shows around 34% of the state experiencing abnormally dry
conditions, with 4% remaining in moderate drought.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Over the last 24 hours, rivers in the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex
that rose above criteria from the Sunday evening event have either
receded below action stage or continue to fall. The Trinity River at
Dallas (DALT2) is the only forecast point above criteria and was
forecast to fall below action stage by late Tuesday.

River forecasts have also been issued for the Rio Grande River
around (1) Presidio and (2) between Lake Amistad and  Laredo,
Texas. For the Presidio  region, higher than normal flows are
occurring due to recent rainfall.  For the river reach between
Lake Amistad and Laredo, minor flooding is occurring at various
locations because of releases from Lake Amistad.

In the Houston area, the San Bernard River was forecast to crest
above action stage at East Bernard due to ongoing rainfall from
late Monday through early Tuesday morning.  The lower Brazos is
also forecast to rise above criteria at Davidson Creek at Lyons
and Middle Yegua Creek at Dime Box due to rainfall produced by
the stalled frontal system.

Seasonal low flow conditions are generally occurring for the
remainder of the WGRFC region.

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:



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