Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 051526
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
925 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

                   VALID MARCH 5 THROUGH MARCH 10

...THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE WGRFC
AREA. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A strong cold front moved through most of Texas the past 24 hours.
In the meantime, a strong upper level trough moved from the Baja of
California eastward, and this trough is rapidly moving across Texas
now.  The combination of these systems generated widespread showers
and a few thunderstorms Wednesday.  Behind the front very cold air
moved in and the precipitation changed into a mixture of wintry
precipitation last night.  Officially 3.5 inches of snow fell in
the DFW metroplex, with locally higher amounts. Rainfall amounts
exceeded 3.00 inches over extreme east Texas from Longview to Linden
TX. The upper level storm is forecast to move east of the region by
this afternoon, and cold, dry air is moving in.  Thus most of the
precipitation will end during the day today.  Some lingering light
precipitation is expected over deep south Texas into early Friday
before dry weather sets in.

By Friday a weak ridge of high pressure is forecast to develop over
Texas.  This will keep most of the WGRFC area in a west or
northwesterly upper air flow with dry weather being the result into
Saturday morning.

By late Saturday a new storm system over Mexico is forecast to move
slowly eastward.  This will tap into some Gulf moisture and may bring
some precipitation to south Texas and areas along and near the Texas
Gulf coast Saturday night into Tuesday morning. The heaviest rain
should be confined to the Gulf coastal regions where atmospheric
moisture will be deepest.  Away from the coastline most of the
precipitation should be light, with no hydrologic impacts expected.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP
amounts of up to 0.25 inch are forecast over the upper Texas Gulf
coast, with lighter amounts over the southeast third of Texas and
Louisiana.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for Deep South Texas near Brownsville.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for areas along and near the middle Texas Gulf coast. Lesser
MAP amounts are forecast for the southeastern half of Texas and
western Louisiana.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast for areas along and near the Texas Gulf coast and into
southern Louisiana. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for the
southeastern third of Texas and the southern two thirds of Louisiana.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (43%), and about 13% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (68%).  Lake levels in these
exceptional drought areas are at or near historical lows for this time
of year.  Recent precipitation events have brought a little bit of
drought relief over the past week or two.  Rainfall amounts of over
0.50 inch are forecast for southeastern Texas the next 5 days which
could produce minor runoff.  Elsewhere, little or no runoff is
expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall across the upper Sabine and 2 to 3
inches across the middle basins near Longview has again generated
enough runoff to bring the Cowleech Fork (GNVT2) and South Fork (QLAT2)
into minor flood.  Other headwater and local area basins along the
upper and middle reaches of the Sabine from Mineola (MLAT2) to Longview
(LONT2) are steady rising into action and low minor flood levels.
Further downstream, the Sabine River at Deweyville (DWYT2) will crest
near action stage late week.  Toledo Bend reservoir still generating 1
unit continuous until further notice.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Most rivers are generally near normal baseflow conditions across the
eastern WGRFC area and below normal across the western areas.
Overnight widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall across northeastern Texas has
generated new  rises on small streams and creeks within headwater areas
within the upper Sabine, Neches, and Trinity river basins.  These
continued periodic rains are highly beneficial; allowing slow deeper
soil moisture penetration that has been limited over the past few
years.  With current rainfall received, no significant flooding is
expected.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$




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