Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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042
AGUS74 KFWR 201642
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1041 AM CST MON NOV 20 2017

                VALID NOVEMBER 20 THROUGH NOVEMBER 25

...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK OVER THE WGRFC AREA
OF RESPONSIBILITY...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A ridge of high pressure developed over the Rocky Mountains Sunday
that moved across Texas the past 24 hours.  This ridge produced dry
weather along with colder temperatures this past weekend.  The ridge
of high pressure is retrograding westward this morning and is
building over the southwestern U.S.  As this occurs an upper air
disturbance is moving across south Texas this morning.  This trough
is producing showers and embedded thunderstorms over northeast
Mexico into deep south Texas and near the middle and lower Texas Gulf
coast.  This disturbance is forecast to move out over the Gulf of
Mexico later this afternoon and the rainfall will end.  So far all
the rainfall amounts have been light.

As the ridge of high pressure builds over the western states by
Tuesday, the WGRFC area will be in a northwesterly upper air flow
pattern the remainder of this week.  Within this flow there will be a
couple upper air disturbances rippling southeastward across or
near Texas.  The next upper air disturbance is forecast to ripple
across the lone star state later Tuesday into Tuesday night and
should exit the region Wednesday morning.  Again, light rain may
occur over southeast and deep south Texas into southern Louisiana,
but no significant rainfall is forecast over the WGRFC area of
responsibility.  The only significant rainfall is forecast to fall
over the Gulf of Mexico. Yet another upper air disturbance may graze
northeast Texas and northern Louisiana by Saturday morning, but no
rainfall is expected with its passage.  In general, cool, dry
conditions are expected beyond Wednesday morning over the WGRFC area.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for areas along and near
the middle and lower Texas Gulf coast into deep south Texas.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for areas near the Texas Gulf coast into deep south Texas
and southwestern Louisiana.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for areas near the lower Texas Gulf coast into northeast
Mexico.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 46% with around 15% of the state
experiencing moderate drought.  In New Mexico, 21% of the state is
having abnormally dry conditions, with 4% in moderate drought
conditions (over the far western portions). With the continued dry
weather pattern the WGRFC area is experiencing, the areas of drought
will likely increase the rest of this month.  Due to the drying soils
and the lack of forecast significant rainfall, runoff is not expected
over the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
All rivers across the WGRFC area are below criteria levels and are
expected to remain below criteria levels for the next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

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