Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 021606
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1106 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

                VALID SEPTEMBER 2 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 7

...COASTAL SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG WITH
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY OUT WEST...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Another early start this morning with localized showers and
thunderstorms along the middle to upper Texas Gulf coast.  Continued
scattered showers are possible today as another unsettled day of
weather is expected.

The persistent upper level low will remain centered along the
upper Texas Gulf coast and southeast Texas today and
gradually weaken through the end of the week as
upper level high pressure builds over the central U.S.
Enough moisture and lift remain to support continued coastal
showers and thunderstorms through the week.  In addition, over the
western portion of the WGRFC area, southwest flow aloft will
stream enough moisture to support daily monsoonal shower activity
into the weekend.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inches or less are forecasted for the Gulf Coast
region.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches or less
are forecasted for the Gulf Coast region and across southern
Colorado and northern New Mexico.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches or less
are forecasted for the Gulf Coast region and across southern
Colorado and northern New Mexico.

For Saturday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Drought conditions are returning to a good part of the southeast
two thirds of Texas.  Topsoil moisture has decreased during the
past month or so, thus it will take more rainfall for runoff to
occur. In Texas 41% of the state is abnormally dry, with 6% in
severe drought.  In New Mexico, 51% of New Mexico is also abnormally
dry.  The rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy
enough to cause significant runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC rivers are below criteria. The precipitation forecast over
the next couple days is not expected to create significant issues.  Dry
soil conditions continue across most of Texas. Lake levels continue to
remain near conservation or within flood pools for much of north and
east Texas while most west Texas reservoirs are well below conservation.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCKEE


$$





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