Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
000
AGNT40 KWNM 211316
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
816 AM EST SUN 21 DEC 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

LAST NIGHTS 03Z HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT-B PASS RETURNED NE 20 TO
25 KT WINDS ALONG SC COAST EXTENDING OFFSHORE S OF CAPE FEAR.
BUOYS S OF CAPE LOOKOUT HAVE ALL BEEN REPORTING 20 G 25 KT PAST
COUPLE HOURS. THESE WINDS WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MODELS WERE
INDICATING. LATEST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG WITH WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT N NEAR
MID ATLC COAST TODAY INTO TUE NIGHT. THEN THERE REMAIN SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE WITH
ECMWF AND GLOBAL GEM ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS FASTER THAN
GFS/GFSP/UKMET. PREFER ECMWF HANDLE ON S TO SW WINDS AS SEEMS TO
BETTER CAPTURE ENHANCED WINDS OVER GULF STREAM. TO ACCOUNT FOR
TIMING DIFFERENCES TIME SHIFTED ECMWF TO MAKE IT 3 HOURS SLOWER
WED INTO FRI. WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
WARNING HEADLINES. SIG WV HGTS ARE 1 FT OR SO HIGHER THAN 06Z
MULTIGRID WAVEWATCH III IS INDICATING OVER WATERS S OF CAPE FEAR
THIS MORNING. WITH PREFERENCE FOR ECMWF WINDS LATER THIS WEEK AM
USING A 80/20 ECMWF WAVE MDL/MWW3 BLEND FOR SIG WV HGTS.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SUMMARY...A HI PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OFSHR TODAY...THEN SHIFT NE
ACROSS THE NRN NT2 AND NT1 WTRS TONITE THRU TUE. DVLPG LOW PRES
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WILL DRIFT N NEAR THE COAST TODAY INTO
TUE...THEN DSIPT NEAR THE NEW JERSEY COAST TUE NITE. THE LOW
WILL PULL A WARM FRONT N ACROSS THE NT2 WTRS TODAY THRU TUE. THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N OVER THE NT1 WTRS TUE NITE THRU WED NITE.
A STG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST LATER WED...CONT E
OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WED NITE...THEN PASS E ACROSS ALL OF THE
OFSHR WTRS THU. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL MOVE E INTO THE AREA LATE THU
AND THU NITE.

MODELS...THE 00Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMENT
ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS THRU WED. MINOR TIMING DIFFS REGARDING
PASSAGE OF A STG COLD FRONT WED NITE INTO THU...WITH THE 00Z GFS
SLOWER WITH THE COLD FNT THAN THE OTHER MDLS. SO WILL USE 00Z
GFS TO POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS THRU WED...THEN USE THE 00Z ECMWF
THEREAFTER AS ITS TIMING OF THE FRONT FITS IN BETTER WITH THE
PREV FCST AND THE OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE MDLS. AM NOT PLANNING
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST TREND.

.SEAS...THE 00Z MULTIGRID WW3 MDL AND 00Z ECMWF WAM BOTH
INITIALIZED WELL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS. THE MWW3 WILL BE USED FOR
TODAY THRU WED...BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE ECMWF WAM FOR THE WED
NITE THRU THU NITE PRD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...ESTOFS AND ETSS MDL
GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE THRU MOST OF THE FCST PRD...SINCE AM
NOT DEVIATING MUCH FROM THE GFS MDL WINDS THRU WED. WITH ONLY
MINOR TIMING DIFFS AS NOTED ABOVE REGARDING PASSAGE OF THE STG
COLD FRONT FOR LATER WED AND WED NITE...NO SIGNIF IMPACTS ON THE
SURGE MDLS IS EXPCTED.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK
BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS
CANYON...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE
HATTERAS...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU.

$$

.FORECASTER CLARK/SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.