Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 090725
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
225 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE NEW 00Z MDLS CONT TO FCST A VERY
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONT. FOR THE DVLPG SFC LOW NOW
MOVG NE OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST...WULD FAVOR THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
FCST TRACKS OF THE SMLR 00Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF VS THE FASTER 00Z
GLOBAL GEM. IN RGRDS TO THE FCST GRADIENTS ASCD WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BASED ON THE ASCD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NEGATIVE STATIC
STABILITY FCSTD...AS WAS DONE PREVLY WL FAVOR THE SMWHT STRONGER
00Z GFS 30M BL WINDS AND WL POPULATE OUR FCST WIND GRIDS WITH
THESE WINDS FOR TODAY.

THEN LATE TODAY THRU WED NITE...AS THE 00Z MDLS ALL FCST A SERIES
OF UPR S/W TROFS TO SWING OFSHR THRU THE BASE OF AN ASCD UPR L/W
TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...TO VARYING DEGREES THE MDLS FCST A
SERIES OF ASCD SFC LOWS TO TRACK E NR 40N LATE TONITE THRU
WED...FLWD BY ANOTHER LOW MOVG OFSHR IN THE VCNTY OF THE NRN GULF
OF MAINE WED NITE. AS THESE SFC LOWS PASS ACRS THE AREA...THE MDLS
ALL FCST A MOD TO STRONG WNWLY GRADIENT ACRS THE NT2 WTRS TO
SPREAD SLOWLY NWD INTO THE NT1 WTRS LATE WED/WED NITE. OVERALL
WULD FAVOR A BLENDED 00Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS
GRADIENT. THEREFORE WL CONT TO POPULATE WITH THE 00Z GFS 30M BL
WINDS THRU WED NITE...WITH SM ADDITIONAL EDITS IN DEFERENCE TO THE
00Z UKMET/ECMWF.

IN THE LONG RANGE...ON THU/THU NITE WL FAVOR THE 00Z GFS
SOLUTION OF THE SFC LOW PASSING E OF THE AREA AND ITS ASCD
MOD/STRONG WNWLY GRADIENT SHIFTING NEWD WITH IT. THEREFORE WL
POPULATE WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS 30M AND 10M BL WINDS ON
THU/THU NITE. THEN LATER IN THE LONG RANGE THE DISPARITY INCREASES
BTWN THE 00Z GLOBAL MDLS. THE 00Z GFS/GEM/UKMET ALL FCST A
STRONGER DVLPG SFC LOW THAN THE 00Z ECMWF TO CROSS SRN NT2 WTRS
FRI INTO FRI NITE. SINCE THE 00Z GEFS MEAN ALSO INDICATES THAT THE
00Z GFS IS LKLY TOO STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM...WL CONT TO POPULATE
WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS 30M AND 10M WINDS FRI...WITH SM
ADDITIONAL EDITS TO DCRS THE WINDS ACRS THE SRN NT2 WTRS. THEN FRI
NITE INTO SAT NITE...SINCE ITS MR IN LINE WITH THE LATEST WPC
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...WL FAVOR THE LESS PROGRESSIVE 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTION OF A SFC LOW CONSOLIDATING JUST E OF THE NT1 WTRS LATE
SAT/SAT NITE WITH A MOD TO STRONG NWLY GRADIENT DVLPG THRUT MUCH
OF THE WTRS. THEREFORE WL TRANSITION TO POPULATING WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF BL WINDS FOR FRI NITE THRU SAT NITE.

.SEAS...THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER 00Z ECMWF WAM HAD INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE 00Z WAVEWATCH III BUT BY LATER THIS MORNING THEIR
DIFFERENCES NARROW. THEREFORE WL POPULATE WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE TWO MDLS FOR TODAY THRU WED NITE. PREFER ALL 00Z WAVEWATCH III
FCST SEAS THU THRU FRI...AND THEN WL TRANSITION TO ALL 00Z ECMWF
WAM FCST SEAS FOR FRI NITE THRU SAT NITE SINCE THE 00Z ECMWF WL
BCM FAVORED.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...AS THE STRONG WLY GRADIENT
IS FCST BY THE 00Z GFS TO SPREAD NWD...SMLR TO ITS PREV RESPECTIVE
RUNS THE 00Z ESTOFS CONTS TO FCST A HIGHER NEGATIVE SURGE TO DVLP
FM THE SE COAST NWD UP THE COAST TODAY INTO FRI THAN FCST BY THE
00Z ETSS...WHICH IS LKLY OVERDONE.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     STORM TODAY.
     GALE TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE TODAY.
     STORM TONIGHT.
     GALE WED INTO WED NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     STORM TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE WED INTO WED NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
     STORM TODAY.
     GALE TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TODAY INTO WED.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO WED NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO WED NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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