Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 040721
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
321 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...00Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STNRY FNT EXTNDG SW INTO
THE NRN NT2 WTRS...WITH A WEAK LOW PRES CNTR OVER SE GEORGIA.
WEAK HI PRES RIDGING WAS ANALYZED OVER THE REMAINING OFSHR WTRS.
LATEST AVAIL ASCAT-B PASSES FROM EARIER TONITE INDICATE A SWATH
OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER MOST OF THE NT2 WTRS...EXCEPT FOR LIGHT
WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS OVER THE SE PART OF THE NT2 AREA. LIGHTNING
DENSITY PRODUCT DATA AT 0700Z SHOWS A LINE OF SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS ASSOCD WITH THE STNRY FNT SPANNING THE NE PART OF THE NT2
AREA...WITH A FEW AREAS OF ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS/TSTNS OVER THE SRN
NT2 WTRS AND NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A WEAK COLD FNT WILL
PASS SE OVER THE OFSHR WTRS TONITE THRU WED NITE...STALL ACROSS
THE CNTRL NT2 WTRS THU INTO FRI...THEN SHIFT INTO A PSN NE TO SW
OVER THE SE NT1 AND NRN NT2 WTRS LATE FRI THRU SAT NITE. A LOW
PRES CNTR IS EXPCTD TO MOVE NE AND APRCH THE CAPE HATTERAS AREA
LATE FRI AND FRI NITE...THEN MOVE NE OVER THE NRN NT2 WTRS SAT
AND SAT NITE.

MODELS...00Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN VRY GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS
THE OFSHR WTRS FOR TONITE THRU THU NITE...SO THE REPRESENTATIVE
00Z GFS 10M WILL BE USED TO POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME. THE 00Z UKMET HAS CLEARLY TRENDED TOWARDS THE 00Z ECMWF
FOR THE FRI THRU SAT NITE PRD...AND THE 00Z GEM/UKMET LOOK VRY
SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
AGREEMNT AMONG THE MDLS FOR FRI THRU SAT NITE IS NOT GUD...SO WILL
USE A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS/UKMET TO RESOLVE THE LACK OF
AGREEMNT.

SEAS...SINCE THE 00Z GFS SOLN IS BEING USED THRU THU NITE...TO BE
CONSISTENT WILL USE THE WNA VERSION OF THE 00Z WAVEWATCH III MDL
GUIDANCE TO POPULATE THE SEA HTS GRIDS FOR THAT PRD. A 40/60 BLEND
OF THE 00Z WNA WW3/ECMWF WAM WILL BE USED FOR FRI THRU SAT NITE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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