Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 281851
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

THRU THE NEXT SVRL DAYS THE MOST SIG WEATHER FEATURE WL BE THE
FUTURE TRACK AND FCST STRENGTH OF T.D. 2. AN EARLIER 1431Z HI
RESOLUTION ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE IMMED NW
QUADRANT OF T.D. 2. SO WULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE SYSTEM BE
UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT NHC ADVSRY. IN RGRDS TO
THE FCST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...THE NEW 12Z MDLS CONT TO HV SIG
DIFFERENCES. VS ITS PREV 06Z RUN...THE 12Z GFS REMAINS ON THE SLOW
SIDE OF THE MDL TRACK ENVELOP. THE 12Z UKMET/ECMWF...AND EVEN
MORESO THE 12Z GFDL...FCST THE MOST PROGRESSIVE FCST TRACKS. THE
12Z GLOBAL GEM FCST TRACK SIMPLY LOOKS LIKE A COMPLETE OUTLIER
SOLUTION. THE 12Z NAM LOOKS EQUALLY UNUSEABLE AS IT FCSTS A NEW
SECOND LOW TO LIFT N INTO THE SRN NT2 WTRS SUN NITE. WITH SO MUCH
DISPARITY BTWN THE MDLS...WULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE NHC REMAIN
CLOSE TO THEIR PREV FCST TRACK...BUT PRHPS MADE SLIGHTLY MR
PROGRESSIVE LATE. IF FORCED TO CHOOSE NOW WULD FAVOR A COMPROMISE
TRACK BTWN THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF. BUT OF COURSE WL HV TO WAIT
FOR THE NEXT NHC ADVSRY. FOR NOW PLAN ON USING OUR PREV OFFICIAL
WIND GRIDS FOR THE NT1 WTRS WITH ADDITIONAL FURTHER EDITS IN
DEFERENCE TO THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN THE LONG RANGE. THE NEXT NHC
ADVSRY WL THEN DICTATE WHAT TO DO FOR THE WIND GRIDS FOR THE NT2
WTRS.

SEAS...BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS...A COMPROMISE BTWN THE 12Z
 WAVEWATCH III AND 12Z ECMWF WAM WULD INITIALIZE BEST. FOR NOW
FOR THE NT1 WTRS WL AGAIN USE THE PREV OFFICIAL WAVE GRIDS WITH
ADDITIONAL EDITS IN THE LONG RANGE PER THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III AND
12Z ECMWF. AGAIN THE NEW NHC FCST TRACK FOR T.D. 2 WL DICTATE WHAT
TO DO WITH THE FCST SEAS FOR THE NT2 WTRS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...IN ASCN WITH T.D. 2...THE
12Z ESTOFS FCSTS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER POSITIVE SURGE TO DVLP ALONG
THE COAST NR THE GEORGIA/S CAROLINA BORDER TONITE INTO SUN THAN
FCST BY THE 12Z ETSS. IF THE SYSTEM INDEED BCMS TROPICAL STORM
SUSPECT THAT BOTH MDLS ARE UNDERFCSTG THIS SURGE.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT INTO SUN.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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