Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 310800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS

A TROUGH...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA...HAS CONTINUED TO
SHIFT NW ACROSS THE E AND SE GULF AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY
AREA SSW TO NEAR 24.5N84/5W THEN SW TO CENTRAL GULF INVOF 24N87W.
ISOLATED DEEP CNVTN WITH A FEW LARGER CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO THE E
OF THE TROUGH MAINLY S OF TAMPA BAY. UPPER TROUGH AND LOW HAVE
LIFTED OUT TO NE AND LEAVING SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS AND TO THE W
OF SFC TROUGH...AHEAD OF LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING SLOWLY SE
TOWARDS TEXAS COAST. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALIGNED NE TO SW WILL
BECOME MORE N TO S NEXT 2 DAYS AS IT SWEEPS GRADUALLY E ACROSS THE
NW GULF WITH UPPER CYCLONE CUTTING OFF ACROSS N CENTRAL PORTIONS
WED AND MEANDERING THERE THROUGH FRI. THIS TO DRAW MOISTURE ACROSS
ERN GULF NWD INTO BIG BEND REGION AND FL PANHANDLE THROUGH WED.
OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRES TO PERSIST ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NW GULF
COASTAL WATERS AND YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW AND SLIGHT SEAS
ACROSS THE BASIN. SFC TROUGH TO SHIFT SLOWLY NW TO ALONG ABOUT 86W
BY WED THEN LIFT NWD AND INLAND THROUGH END OF WEEK. 00Z RUN OF
ECMWF NOW IN LINE WITH GFS ON THIS FEATURE. AS TROUGH SHIFTS NW
TUE...GFS FORECASTING YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH TO BECOME ACTIVE
AGAIN TUE AND WED WITH ENHANCED WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT SHIFTING WWD
EACH EVENING WITH TROUGH.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS NW CARIB LAST NIGHT HAS MOVED WWD FROM GULF
OF HONDURAS NWD TO ALONG THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN...ALLOWING
WIND SURGE S OF ERIKA REMNANTS TO SPREAD WWD AND TRIGGERING CNVTN
BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. BUOY 42057 REFLECTING THIS AND HAS BEEN
FLUCTUATING AT 5-6 FT PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH ELY
TRADES OTHERWISE PREVAIL TO THE E OF 80W WITH SEAS DOWN FROM 24
HOURS AGO...AND RUNNING 6-9 FT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CARIB.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W/73W WILL CONTINUE W AND MOVE ACROSS THE
W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 57W/58W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE E CARIB THIS EVENING...CROSS 70W EARLY TUE EVENING
AND THEN SLOW DOWN REACHING 77W WED EVENING. TRADES TO REMAIN
FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH TUE WITH POTENTIAL
FOR 30 KT NOCTURNAL MAX OFF COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT...THEN
BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SW N ATLC HIGH
WEAKENS AND SHIFT SE INTO CENTRAL SUB TROPICAL ATLC.

MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS
THROUGH WED BEFORE WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO NOSE SE AND INTO NRN PART
AND YIELD LIGHT WINDS N OF 17N BY WED.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IN THE ERN GULF
AND 1021 MB HIGH SW OF BERMUDA STILL PRODUCING FRESH SLY FLOW
ACROSS NW PORTIONS AND NE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS...WHERE 03Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWED AROUND 20 KT AND BUOYS REPORTING SEAS 6 FT.
ASSOCIATED SCT CNVTN THERE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NNE WITH LOW TO MID
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND OUT OF AREA LATER TODAY...BUT WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE EXTENDING BACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND N FLORIDA TO PRODUCE
AFTERNOON CNVTN THAT WILL SHIFT NE OUT OVER WATERS AND THIS SAME
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AN OLD FRONTAL ZONE AND AMPLE LLVL
MOISTURE EXTENDS NEARLY E TO W BETWEEN 23N AND 27N E OF 75W WHERE
SCT RW+/ISOLD TRW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT OF SFC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE SHIFTING SE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE TUE-WED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF BROAD SFC LOW E OF BERMUDA...WITH ECMWF SHOWING MUCH MORE
DEVELOPMENT AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH THIS
FEATURE. WILL HAVE TO BLEND SOME OF THIS IN TO DEPICT STRONGER
TROUGHING THERE THAN GFS AND UKMET. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR WEAKENING
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SE AND RIDGE EXTENDS SE
TO OFFSHORE OF NE CARIB.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING E CARIB TODAY WILL FRACTURE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH N PORTION MOVING ACROSS NE CARIB MON NIGHT AND TUE AND
THEN OVER SE PORTIONS TUE NIGHT AND WED.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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