Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 280625
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
225 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ELEVATED PLATFORMS IN THE NW GULF SHOW
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT N OF THE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES
FROM OFFSHORE OF S TX TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE 0316
UTC ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THESE CONDITIONS AND DEPICTS AN OPEN
TROUGH NEAR 26N96W...SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT WAS
IN THE GULF WEDNESDAY HAS DIMINISHED. THE MODELS GENERALLY CONCUR
WITH THESE OBSERVATIONS. ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW
MAY BRIEFLY RETURN TODAY BEFORE MOVING INLAND...BUT WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING ADVISORY CRITERIA COMES EARLY SAT MORNING OFF
THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE AREA ENHANCES THE NORMAL NOCTURNAL TROUGH THAT
PUSHES OFF THE PENINSULA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GEFS SHOWS UP TO
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH EARLY
SAT MORNING AND EARLY SUN MORNING...WITH PROBABILITIES INCREASING
SUN NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TO AROUND 40 PERCENT AS
MORE WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. THE GFS IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW IN THE SW GULF E OF 94W ON MON NIGHT WITH WINDS TO 30 KT. THE
POSITION OF THE LOW IN THE GFS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
AGREED WPC/NHC MEDR POINTS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL BRING THE
WINDS DOWN A BIT COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS FOR NOW. A BLEND OF THE
MWW3 AND NWPS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE WAVE...WITH MANUAL EDITS MADE
TO MATCH THE PREFERRED WINDS WHICH WAS A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL AND THE 00Z GFS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE NORMALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAVE
DIMINISHED SINCE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N HAS RETREATED E
DUE TO CRISTOBAL. THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO REBUILD S OF
CRISTOBAL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS INDUCING FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES IN THE NE CARIBBEAN AS SEEN BY BUOY 42060. AN
AREA OF WINDS AOA ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL SHIFT W WITH THE WAVE
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT.
THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST OF THE MODELS WITH THIS ENERGETIC WAVE
AND SEEMS TO BE WELL INITIALIZED. THE GEFS KEEPS AT LEAST A 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS WITH THE WAVE OVER THE NE
AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI MORNING AND THEN SHOWS THE
CHANCE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS SUN NIGHT AS THE WAVE PULLS W OF THE AREA. WILL
RELY ON THE GFS HERE WHICH IS IN STEP WITH THE TIMING AGREED ON
THE WPC/NHC CONCALL. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
TROUGHING EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE ONLY MODEL STILL HOLDING ONTO A CLOSED LOW IS THE
NAVGEM. THE GFS NOW LOOKS IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HERE.
THE GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS. THE NWPS WAS MAINLY RELIED
ON HERE TO ADJUST THE WAVES.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
MWW3/NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SWELLS FROM HURCN CRISTOBAL...NOW N OF THE AREA...WILL BE RAPIDLY
SUBSIDING TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL PICKING UP
ON THE STRONG TRADE WINDS N OF HISPANIOLA AND JUST S OF THE RIDGE
AXIS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF HURCN CRISTOBAL. THESE WINDS WERE
OBSERVED BY THE 0136 UTC AND 0228 UTC ASCAT PASSES. THE GFS AGREES
ON GRADUALLY DECREASING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS HERE
EACH EVENING THROUGH FRI AS THE RIDGE LIFTS N AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA
AND THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PASSES W
OF THE AREA. THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE HERE. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM THE WEEKEND
ONWARD.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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