Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 280605
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH
PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS
USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A NE-SW RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS RETRACTING E AS A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE SE TX COAST TO THE MEXICAN COAST AT
21N97W CONTINUES EASTWARD. SCT RW/ISOL TS IN WEATHER GRIDS AS
WELL AS PATCH FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY
FLOW IS CURRENTLY 20-25 KT...AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25-30
KT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 22-26N DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. THESE NW WINDS W OF THE FRONT WILL
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM THE
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. STILL
EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE EASTERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE ON TUE...WITH REMNANTS OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FRONT DISSIPATING THROUGH WED. MOISTURE GUIDANCE HOLDS ONTO
THE REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHERN OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL DRIFT W AND
WEAKEN TO A NE-SE TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF ON WED...BUT ONLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A 5-10 KT WIND SHIFT. BY THEN THE GRADIENT WILL
FURTHER TIGHTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH THE NE 15-20 KT
CONDITIONS ON TUE NIGHT INCREASING TO NE 20-25 KT OVER THE NW
GULF ON WED. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND MEXICO ON
THU NIGHT AS 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF ON FRI.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH
PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS
USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN NE 25-30 KT CONDITIONS
ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH WED NIGHT SURROUNDED BY
NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM 10-18N BETWEEN 70-
83W. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX EARLY THIS WEEK INTO MID
WEEK WITH THIS SURROUNDING AREA SHRINKING TO THE S OF 16N
BETWEEN 72-80W ON TUE-THU. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A MUCH LARGER
AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS OVER THE WATERS S OF 13N BETWEEN 73-79W
ON THU NIGHT...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. A SMALL
AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SE COAST OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. NE SWELLS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC WATERS E OF 68W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 KT
REACHING THE NE AND E CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT THROUGH MON
NIGHT. THE NE SWELL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE S ACROSS THE
WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS REACHING THE N COAST OF S AMERICA
BETWEEN 55-62W TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WED.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH
PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS
USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING FROM 20N55W TO 22N72W TO 27N76W. THE
REMNANTS WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY AS A SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
SE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N63W TODAY WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING WSW TO CENTRAL FL. NE-E 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 23N E OF 70W AND
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUE. EXPECT SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT
FLOW N OF THE RIDGE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXITING THE SE COAST
CONUS ON MON NIGHT. THE FRONT REACH A LINE FROM BERMUDA TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WED WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STALLING
FROM 27N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THU AND DISSIPATING ON
FRI. EXPECT ONLY NORTHERLY 10-15 KT CONDITIONS W OF THE FRONT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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