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AGPN40 KWNM 200306

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
706 PM PST Sun Feb 19 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

No significant changes to the wind grids or hazards in the
upcoming package.

Low pres near 38N133W at 00z expected to move northeast over the
Northern California and Southern Oregon waters tonight into
Monday. Latest model guidance still showing gales in the south
and southeast quadrant as it moves across the offshore waters.
Current hazards look good. A second low will follow almost the
exact same track as the previous low Monday night. Models still
showing gales associated with this low and do not plan on making
any changes to the hazards with this system at this time.

Seas...Both the ENP and the ECMWFwave underdone along the western
portions of the Oregon and Northern California offshore waters,
as buoy 46002 reporting 19 ft at 00z with a ship to its south
reporting 20 ft in the same time period. Will adjust wave grids
in first period to account for current higher conditions. Other
than making a few changes to the wave grids in the extended time
period, no significant changes needed at this time.


Satellite pics...along with ASCAT are indicating a weak cold
front moving over the Oregon waters. Winds in advance of the
front are generally around 20 kt. Behind the front winds
are light...generally 15 kt or less. Across the very far SE
portion of the California waters winds shift to the NW 15-20 kt.
The most recent altimeter pass over the region was from early
this morning and shows seas to 12 ft. The waves have increased
since then as buoy 46002 reported 16 ft at 20z.

The overall forecast philosophy hasn`t changed much with the 12z
global models. The models are in generally good agreement
throughout...with some minor differences in the timing of
features as they cross the waters. Over the next couple of days a
series of lows will track NE over the northern California and
far southeastern Oregon waters. The lows are expected to produce
a small area of gale conditions as they mover rather rapidly over
the area.. The pattern will quiet down later in the week as high
pres builds w of the offshore waters. Will populate the wind
grids using the ECMWF throughout the forecast period...with some
slight enhancements to the wind speed. The ECMWF has shown good
consistency over the past few runs and also is in pretty good
agreement with WPC medium range.

Seas...Both the WAM and ENP initialized well across the waters.
Will populate the wave grids using the WAM throughout the week.



.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ815...Inner Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale Monday.

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale tonight into Monday night.
.PZZ920...Outer Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale tonight into Monday night.
.PZZ825...Inner Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale Monday night.
.PZZ925...Outer Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale tonight into Monday night.
.PZZ930...Outer Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas...
     Gale Monday into Monday night.


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