Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGPN40 KWNM 200259
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
659 PM PST Mon Feb 19 2018

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

At this time I don`t plan on making changes to the current grids
or assoicated text forecast. The latest ASCAT pass from 19Z
indicates a large area of 20-30 kt winds across much of the
region, with a small are of gales in the central California
waters.

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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

High pressure to the west of the region and a low pressure
trough to the east have maintained a tight pressure gradient over
the northern and central waters where maximum winds in the gale
force range have been observed. Inland trough is now weakening
that will give way to a relaxed pressure gradient and winds will
diminish to below gale force threshold in the short term. high
pressure will remain anchored to the west of the southern waters
withe a weak coastal low pressure trough. GOES16 Geocolor images
show clusters of mostly low clouds moving northwest across the
region with cyclonic circulation over Washington. At 18Z, the
NCEP weather map has high pressure 1040 MB near 40N140W that
extends a ridge southeast into the southern waters. Tight
pressure gradient over the eastern portion of the northern and
central waters.

Models have initialized well the 18z surface observations and
they all agree well in the short tern on keeping high pressure to
the west of the region as it slowly moves south. Models are also
in agreement on weakening the low pressure trough to the east.
In the extended period, models differ slightly on the strength of
the high pressure to the west of the region but they agree on
the general synoptic pattern and so will stay with GFS.

.SEAS...They peak at 27 ft over the central waters and wave
models NWW3 and ECMWFWAVE fit well the observed seas pattern. In
the short term the peak seas will drift south while subsiding.
Will stay with NWW3 for seas.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale Possible Friday night.
     Gale Possible Saturday night.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale Possible Saturday night.
.PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale Possible Wednesday night.

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale Possible Thursday night.
.PZZ825...Inner Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale Possible Thursday night.
.PZZ830...Inner Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas...
     Gale Possible Thursday night.

$$

.Forecaster Shaw/Musonda. Ocean Prediction Center.


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