Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 260906
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
206 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

SHORT TERM...1004 MB LOW PRES NEAR THE QN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL
MOVE INLAND OVER WRN CANADA EARLY TODAY. A 0442Z HI-RES ASCAT PASS
INDICATED GALES OCCURRING NR THE QN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS CLOSER TO
THE LOW OR NEARLY 200 NM N OF THE OFF WTRS EARLY THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT TRAILING SW FROM THE LOW WILL SLIDE E AND SE AS A HIGH
PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING SW FROM THE OREG WTRS DSIPTS TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL PASS OVR PZ5 WTRS THIS AFTN INTO TONITE... THEN
LKLY DSIPT S OF THE PZ5 WTRS EARLY TUE. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
COASTAL AND INLAND LOW PRES AND HIGH PRES W OF THE WTRS WILL
STRENGTHEN TUE AND TUE NITE. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY GALES WILL BE IN THE COASTAL WTRS OFF OF SRN OREG
AND PSBLY FAR NRN CALIF LATER TUE INTO TUE NITE. WE WILL CAP WINDS
AT 30 KT OVR THE ADJACENT OFF WTRS IN THIS REGION. THE PRES GRAD
WILL RELAX WED AND WED NITE AS LOW PRES AND AN ASSOC COLD FRONT
MOVE SE TOWARD THE WTRS FROM THE GULF OF AK...AND THE HIGH PRES
AREA CENTERED TO THE W OF THE WTRS SLOWLY WEAKENS. THIS WILL LOWER
THE THREAT FOR GALES DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WK. WE WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS 10M WINDS FOR THE EARLY AM PACKAGE
THRU WED NITE. IT REMAINS VRY CONSISTENT...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
NON-GFS AND ENSEMBLE FCSTS...AND ALSO CONSISTENT WITH FCSTS FROM
NEARBY COASTAL FORECAST OFFICES AND TAFB.

LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL SLIDE SE FROM THE GULF OF AK
BY THU...AND THEN REMAIN THE MAIN WX FEATURE OVR THE ERN PAC
OCEAN THU NITE THRU FRI NITE. AT THE SFC...WK LOW PRES WILL MOVE
INTO NW WASH OFF WTRS THU WITH AN ASSOC WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING
SW FROM THE LOW. THE LOW IS FCST DRIFT E AND SE OF PZ5 WTRS THU
NITE INTO FRI NITE...FINALLY MOVG INLAND AND DSIPTG EARLY SAT
ALONG THE WASH COAST. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE W OF THE WTRS
FRI NITE INTO SAT WITH SOME INCREASE IN THEN N-NW WIND FIELD FCST
MAINLY OFF THE SRN AND CENTRAL CALIF COASTS AT THAT TIME.
MARGINAL GALES APPEAR PSBL AT THAT TIME...MAINLY OVR THE COASTAL
WTRS OF SRN CALIF. FOR THE OFF WTRS WE WILL CAP WINDS AROUND 25
KT IN THIS REGION BY FRI NITE AS CHANCES FOR GALES OVR THE SRN
CALIF OFF WTRS LOOK TO BE VRY SLIGHT AT THIS TIME. THE 00Z GLBL
MDLS ARE REMAINING IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT OVR THE REGION THRU FRI
NITE. AS A RESULT...WE SEE NO NEED TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE 00Z
GFS 10M WINDS FOR THE EARLY AM PACKAGE FOR THU THRU FRI
NITE...WITH CONFDC LVLS REMAINING ABV AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
5 DAY FCST.

TROPICS...T.S. ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NR 16.8N 119.5W AT 09Z THIS
MORNING PER THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM NHC. IT IS MOVG TOWARD THE
N-NE AT 4 KT. THE CURRENT ADVISORY FROM NHC MAINTAINS ROSLYN AS A
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM THRU EARLY TUE AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE N-NE. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FCST TO WEAKEN AND
TURN TOWARD THE N-NW LATER TUE THRU THU...DSPTG WELL S OF THE OFF
WTRS THU NITE OR FRI. AT THIS TIME THIS SYSTEM APPEARS AS IF IT
WILL HAVE NO MAJOR IMPACT ON THE OFF WTRS. PLS CLOSELY MONITOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NHC FOR DETAILS.

.SEAS...BOTH THE 00Z ENP WAVE WATCH III AND 00Z ECMWF WAM WAVE
MDL GUIDANCE APPEAR TO BE INITIALIZED WELL OVR THE OFF WTRS EARLY
THIS MORNING. FOR THE EARLY AM FCST WE WILL USE A 50-50 BLEND OF
THESE TWO MDLS THROUGHOUT THE FCST WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE
PREV FEW OPC FCSTS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

NOTE: ON OCTOBER 06, 2016...THE NWS FTPMAIL SERVICE WILL DISABLE
THE CURRENT EMAIL ADDRESS. THE NEW EMAIL ADDRESS IS LIVE NOW.
PLEASE TRANSITION TO IT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE TO AVOID A SERVICE
DISRUPTION.

NEW EMAIL ADDRESS...NWS.FTPMAIL.OPS@NOAA.GOV
/ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS/

FOR THE SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE...PLEASE GO TO
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OS/NOTIFICATION/SCN16-37FTPMAIL.HTM
/ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS/

.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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