Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
000
ACUS48 KWNS 230956
SWOD48
SPC AC 230955

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VALID 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 4. THE MODELS
MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD ACROSS SOUTH FL. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY IN FAR SRN FL BEFORE DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY/DAY 5 KEEPING A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS LOCATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN
STATES. AT MID-LEVELS...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
ERN SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE ERN U.S. ON
FRIDAY/DAY 6 WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SFC WINDS TO BECOME SLY IN THE
CNTRL STATES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR
MOISTURE RETURN TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO NOT
APPEAR TO DEVELOP CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY 4 TO 8
PERIOD...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL THAT FAR OUT. WILL GO WITH
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR STRONG
CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 11/23/2014


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.