Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 020949
SWOD48
SPC AC 020948

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
IN THE LARGE SCALE...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS /00Z ECMWF AND GFS/ TEND TO
AGREE WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE MID-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
DURING DAYS 4-8 /THU-MON/.  A BLOCKING RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN LOCATED
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH DAY 5/6 /FRI-MARCH 6
AND SAT-MARCH 7/...AND THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE WRN STATES
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT-FLOW REGIME WILL LIKELY
BE MAINTAINED FROM KS/OK THROUGH THE TN VALLEY UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THIS FLOW REGIME SHOULD SHIFT TOWARD THE GULF COAST REGION BEGINNING
DURING DAY 6 AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES A PROMINENT FEATURE EAST
OF THE ROCKIES.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SHUNTED INTO THE GULF BASIN AND OFF
THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST PRECLUDING AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

..PETERS.. 03/02/2015


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