Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS48 KWNS 081001
SWOD48
SPC AC 081000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Thu Dec 08 2016

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The 00Z GFS has trended closer to the ECMWF for day 4/Sunday with
less amplification of a Pacific shortwave trough as it reaches the
central Plains Sunday afternoon.  These models maintain a broad,
cyclonic flow pattern across the contiguous U.S. until the start of
day 5/Monday, and then diverge greatly in amplitude.  Although each
shows cyclonic flow across the U.S., the GFS suggests much lower
500-mb heights from the Rockies to the eastern states from day 5
through day 7/Wednesday.

Models suggest some strong to severe storm potential across the
northwest Gulf Coast to the central Gulf Coast states during day
5/Monday and day 6/Tuesday.  However, given the uncertainty in both
the amplification of the upper flow pattern for the early part of
next week and overall destabilization, no severe-weather
probabilities will be included.

..Peters.. 12/08/2016


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