Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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379
ACUS11 KWNS 230956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230956
FLZ000-231130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0130
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Areas affected...West-central Florida Gulf Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 230956Z - 231130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts will be possible, primarily
along the west-central Florida Gulf Coast, as a fast-moving band of
thunderstorms moves onshore from Tampa/St. Petersburg to Fort Myers
between 10-11Z.  The threat for strong wind gusts will be greatest
near the coast.

DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery and IR satellite imagery showed a
fast-moving (50 kt) band of low-topped thunderstorms approaching the
west-central Florida Gulf Coast, with this band expected to reach
the Tampa/St. Petersburg area around 10Z, and then into Fort Myers
by 11Z.  This activity was located within the leading area of upward
vertical motion with a progressive shortwave trough advancing east
through the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Marginal instability and a
steep low-level lapse rate environment (0-3 km of 7-7.5 c/km) near
the coast could prove favorable for momentum transfer of stronger
winds to the surface.  A more stable low-level environment inland
away from the coast should allow the storms to weaken and limit
stronger winds from reaching the surface.

..Peters/Thompson.. 01/23/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...

LAT...LON   28008287 27968266 27368248 26838214 26658224 26948258
            27548289 27918292 28008287




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