Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 290945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290945
OKZ000-291115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1434
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0445 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 290945Z - 291115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SHORT-LIVED RISK FOR STRONG TO LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING CLUSTER ACROSS
PARTS OF OK. THIS RISK SHOULD DIMINISH BETWEEN 12-14Z.

DISCUSSION...LEADING EDGE OF A QLCS EXTENDED FROM WOODWARD TO KAY
COUNTIES AS OF 0940Z. THIS ACTIVITY HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE 30S TO 40S-KT RANGE...INCLUDING 45 KT AT
THE ALVA AWOS AND 48 KT AT THE MEDFORD OK-MESONET SINCE 09Z. 06Z
LAMONT RAOB SAMPLED LARGE BUOYANCY /WITH SATURATION OF THE SOUNDING
NEAR 900 MB/ AMID STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 DEG C/KM BETWEEN
850-500 MB. AMARILLO VWP DATA STILL HAS SAMPLED 25-KT LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN MODEST WAA UNTIL FLOW
DIMINISHES AROUND DAYBREAK. THE QLCS SHOULD TEND TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
THE AXIS OF RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /INFERRED FROM SURFACE DEW
POINTS OF 70-73 DEG F IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST OK/ AMID MID-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PER THE 06Z LAMONT RAOB.

..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 07/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   36779681 36179583 35689555 34939590 34669804 34999910
            35809969 36149949 36329781 36549742 36779681



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