Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 300358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300357
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-300600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH NRN MS AND SWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 300357Z - 300600Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING FROM SRN AR THROUGH NRN MS AND SWRN TN. A FEW STORMS MIGHT
BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL...AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE FROM ERN AR INTO NRN MS AND SWRN TN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH A SWLY LLJ AND WHERE DEEPER
FORCING ACCOMPANYING A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ERODED THE
CAPPING INVERSION. THE STORMS ARE ELEVATED AND DECOUPLED FROM
BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE WHERE STEEPER /7-7.5 C/KM/ MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERLAP NERN
EXTENT OF MOIST AXIS. THE STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES. ACTIVITY IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN 45-55 KT FLOW
THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE LAYER SO GUSTY SFC WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY THE
STABILIZING SFC LAYER AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 03/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34579053 35158951 35418874 35278822 34558825 33748984
            33159242 33619297 34049169 34579053



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