Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 221900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221900
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-222030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1736
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Areas affected...portions of southern Alabama and th western Florida
panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 221900Z - 222030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong wind gusts and a brief/weak tornado or two
may occur across southern Alabama into the western Florida panhandle
through the afternoon and early evening. A watch is not expected at
this time.

DISCUSSION...Heating ahead of a cluster of storms currently located
over southwest AL has allowed for weak destabilization (less than
1000 J/kg) across the Florida panhandle into southern AL. While
midlevel lapse rates are unremarkable, convection is likely being
enhanced by an embedded MCV (noted earlier in the morning over
southeast MS). Near the apex of the bowing structure over Baldwin
County, AL some stronger wind gusts will be possible as the storm
cluster tracks east-northeast as low level lapse rates have
steepened sufficiently. Additionally, a narrow zone of effective SRH
values around 200 m2/s2 will shift northeast across southern AL and
the FL panhandle. A few briefly rotating cells have already been
noted moving inland east of Mobile and this trend should continue as
the system tracks northeast. Given the overall marginal nature of
the thermodynamic and kinematic environment and transient/weak
nature of any rotating cells, a watch is not expected at this time.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 10/22/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   30048707 30118764 30288797 30888803 31248785 31518752
            32018668 32128597 32108547 31988518 31588504 30878512
            30098554 29888573 30048707




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