Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 100739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100739
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-100915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1335
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEB/KS AND NORTHERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 409...

VALID 100739Z - 100915Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 409
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL NEB AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL
KS...BUT ON AN INCREASINGLY MARGINAL/ISOLATED BASIS. SEVERE TSTM
WATCH 409 CONTINUES ACROSS KS UNTIL 10Z...WHILE TEMPORALLY EXTENDED
WATCH 408 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 08Z. SOME SEVERE THREAT /HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/ CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO PARTS OF
NORTHERN OK...BUT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY /20
PERCENT/.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH
HISTORY OF HAIL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/FOCUS ALONG STORM-SCALE OUTFLOW
IN AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SYNOPTIC
FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE LOW-LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION-AIDED ASCENT WILL
PERSIST...STORM INTENSITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WANE OVERNIGHT AS INHIBITION FURTHER
INCREASES AND CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING OCCURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...STORMS HAVE GENERALLY CONGEALED OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO INTO AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED SLOW-MOVING MCS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. WITH SOME DEGREE OF COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT ALREADY
OCCURRING...A MODERATELY-STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET APPEARS TO
BE IMPINGING ON THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE MCS VIA WSR-88D VWP
DATA FROM DODGE CITY KS/VANCE AFB OK. ASSOCIATED STORM RELATIVE
INFLOW /ALBEIT SLIGHTLY ELEVATED/ MAY CONTRIBUTE TO FORWARD
PROPAGATION AND A MODEST SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION INTO OK
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHILE QUITE LIMITED IN THE
SHORT-TERM...A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND RISK CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
DISCOUNTED ACROSS OK INTO THE 08-11Z TIME FRAME.

..GUYER.. 07/10/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   41649987 40349899 38639796 37589731 36389566 36269875
            37729907 41100046 41649987




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