Tropical Cyclone Discussion
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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 222034
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Convection continues to gradually wane around the large circulation
of Lowell. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend of
the latest Dvorak Final-T and current intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB. The cyclone is now over waters around 25C and will be
moving over waters of 22-23C by 36 hours. This should results in
Lowell becomes a post-tropical cyclone by that time, followed by
weakening to a remnant low in about 2 days.

The initial motion is 310/08. Lowell should continue moving
generally northwestward during the next 36 hours as a mid-level
ridge to the east builds westward. After that time, the weakening
cyclone is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest as it comes
under the influence of a low-level ridge to the north. The new NHC
forecast is a little to the left of the previous NHC track to
account for the initial position and it close to a consensus of the
GFS and ECMWF models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 22.4N 124.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 23.3N 125.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 24.4N 127.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 25.2N 128.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  24/1800Z 25.8N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1800Z 27.0N 132.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1800Z 29.0N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1800Z 31.0N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan




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