706
FXAK67 PAJK 022353
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
353 PM AKDT Thu May 2 2024

.SHORT TERM...Quiet weather remains across the panhandle through
the remainder of the week. While some daytime q fields may develop
due to localized instability during the afternoon time frame on
Friday, do not expect any significant precipitation from them. The
current q field which has developed across land-based areas
Thursday afternoon will largely dissipate through the overnight
time frame. Some elevated clouds may move overhead, but do not
expect any significant impacts from these. A system entering the
Gulf of AK will bring small craft conditions to many of the outer
coastal waters. The inner channels will largely retain the lower
wind speeds from the past few days, though ocean entrances and sea
breezes will continue to prove the exceptions. Temperatures will
reach into the 60s across much of the panhandle on Friday,
potentially even reaching into the low 70s for a few locations -
most likely along the Haines Highway or out the road in Juneau.
Otherwise, the diurnal heating and cooling trend will still see
temperatures fall below freezing across parts of the central and
northern panhandle, and frost advisories have been issued.

The primary changes to the short term forecast were lowering
temperatures for Thursday night, and making minor adjustments to
high temperatures on Friday. Some refinements to the wind forecast
with regard to direction, and some outflow winds.

.LONG TERM...Changed in store for Southeast Alaska from the very
beginning of this medium & long range forecast period. A weakening
front crossing the Gulf will still produce some rain Saturday
along the northeast Gulf Coast. South of Cape Fairweather,
conditions should remain dry, if not sunny, through the daylight
hours on Saturday, but a short wave will rejuvenate the distal end
of the front as it approaches the southern outer coast late
Saturday night and all locations should see at least a little
measurable rain on Sunday. Unsettled weather and shower activity
will remain over the region through the middle of the work week.
Looking well out into the long range, there are indications in
long range guidance that at least part of the Panhandle may see
some heavy rain Thursday and Thursday night. Deterministic and
ensemble guidance are both picking up on this and it was a topic
of discussion and coordination with WPC this morning.

Along with the increased cloudiness, there will be a subtle
reduction in daytime highs during this extended range forecast.
Very little change to overnight lows until Wednesday night when
they warm ever so slightly.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected to continue through the next
24+ hours. Winds are fairly light with some locations seeing
drainage directions in the overnight/early morning hours followed
by a flip to their sea breeze direction. Otherwise, through the
day Friday, prevailing wind direction will back from SE to NE
(offshore) as low pressure in the distant gulf passes by. Clouds
are expected to be limited to some high cirrus and potentially
afternoon CU development over land again.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ317-319>321-
     325.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....Fritsch
AVIATION...Ferrin

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