423
FXUS61 KAKQ 300814
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
414 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the Southeast coast will bring hot and humid
conditions through Tuesday. A cold front approaches from the
west on Tuesday, and slowly crosses the local area Tuesday night
through Wednesday, bringing an increased chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Mainly dry conditions are expected late in the
week into next weekend as high pressure brings somewhat lower
humidity to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Monday...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected late this
  afternoon/evening, primarily over the N/NW zones where an
  isolated strong to severe storm is possible.

The latest WX analysis indicates a broad upper level ridge
well offshore of the SE US coast, centered between Bermuda and
the Caribbean, with sfc high pressure in the same general
region. The upper ridge extends ENE into the Carolinas and
southern VA, while an upper level trough is in place across
central Canada and the northern Plains. A few lingering showers
with embedded tstms across the MD eastern shore are slowly
moving off to the NE. Warm and humid across the local area with
temperatures primarily in the low-mid 70s, ranging from the
upper 70s near the coast to the upper 60s across the far NW.
Some patchy fog will be possible across central VA through 7 AM,
but nothing dense or widespread is anticipated.

Sfc low pressure, currently over the upper MS Valley to N of
Lake Superior, will track E today, lifting a stationary front
that is already north of the local area farther off to the north
into the NE CONUS this aftn. There is enough of a pressure
gradient to keep SW winds strong enough today near the coast to
minimize any seabreeze influences, and this setup will favor the
highest PoPs this aftn/early evening across the N/NW zones where
shear will be a little stronger, with generally only isolated
showers/tstms expected elsewhere. The environment today will
continue to feature good instability/low level lapse rates and
strong daytime heating, but with fairly weak shear for most (15-20kt).
SPC has our far N/NW zones in a Marginal risk for localized
strong to damaging wind gusts (shear is forecast to increase to
~25kt in the far north late this aftn/early evening). It will
continue to be hot and humid today, with forecast highs above
seasonal averages but within 1 std dev (generally 90-95F with
the highest temperatures across SE VA and NE NC). Dewpoints in
the lower to mid 70s during peak heating should yield heat
indices of 98-104F, with a few pockets of ~105F possible in the
SE. Convection wanes overnight with another warm humid night
with lows in the mid to locally upper 70s/around 80F in the
urban areas and near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Frontal passage Tuesday night will bring numerous showers and
  thunderstorms to the area with a Marginal SVR Risk and a
  Marginal to Slight ERO risk for day 2 (Tue AM through early
  Wed AM).

- Front will be slow to push SE, likely stalling near VA/NC
  border, bringing increased rain chances to SE VA and NE NC
  Wednesday (Marginal ERO for Wed in SE zones).

A cold front will advance towards our area from the NW Tuesday.
PW values increase as the front approaches our area Tuesday
afternoon. A little better flow aloft arrives later Tuesday aftn
and evening associated with the upper trough. This could result
in improved storm organization and the entire area is in a
marginal severe risk for Tuesday, with a Slight Risk just off to
our north). Additionally, locally heavy rain is possible with a
moisture rich airmass, and WPC has a Slight risk over northern
portions of the FA and a Marginal into SE VA. There is still
some question as to mid level lapse rates (the NAM is showing
somewhat better values in the 6-6.5C range Tuesday night, but
the GFS remains weaker). Overall, the main threat will be damaging
wind gusts with hail still a fairly minimal concern. Hot and
humid Tuesday, but not unusual for the start of July ahead of
the front with high temperatures ranging from the mid 90s SE
(where PoPs stay fairly low through most of the day), to around
90F in the piedmont. Peak heat indices in the upper 90s W to
near 105F SE.

30/00z guidance continues to suggest that the front will be slow
to push to the SE Wednesday, keeping increased rain chances to
SE VA and NE NC through Wed aftn. High temperatures drop into
the 80s Wednesday with PoPs ranging from 15-30% N to 60-70% S
with the front lingering over the locally area. The SVR threat
will be diminished, but locally heavy rain will still be possible
over the SE through the aftn. Drying out Wed evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry through the extended.

- Lower dew points will bring some relief to the area.

The 30/00Z EPS/GEFS remain consistent with yesterday`s runs,
pushing the front S of the area by Thursday, with PW values
dropping below normal by Thursday/Friday. Given this, the
secondary front that moves through the region Thursday night
will have less moisture to work with, and PoPs are less than 15%
at this time. Highs return to the lower 90s for most on Thursday,
but dewpoints drop a few degrees. By Friday, as sfc high
pressure over the eastern Great Lakes moves SE into the local
area, dewpoints are forecast to only be in the low-mid 60s into
central VA to the upper 60s SE. Highs Friday are in the mid 80s
to near 90F behind the secondary front, with lows Friday night
dropping into the 60s for most of the area, so some relative
relief (at least for early July standards) is expected. Upper
ridging will start to build across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
by next weekend. Highs trend back toward the 90s, but dewpoints
will be slower to recover and mainly dry conditions are
expected for the Independence Day holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Monday...

Primarily VFR today with a 20% or lower chc of showers/tstms
towards the coast and a 30-50% chc farther inland and to the
NW. Have continued with a PROB30 mention for a tstm at RIC, but
left this out of the other terminals. The wind will mainly be
SW ~10 kt today with gusts to 15-20 kt possible in the aftn.

VFR conditions are primarily expected tonight through early Tue
aftn. However, there is an increased chc of mainly late aftn/evening
showers/tstms Tuesday, potentially lingering through Wed aftn
with a slow moving cold front. Any showers/tstms have the
potential to produce brief flight restrictions and strong wind
gusts. VFR Thursday and Friday as drier air builds into the
region behind the cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for much of the area
  starting tonight and lasting into early Wednesday.

High pressure in the western North Atlantic continues to dominate
our local wind regime, resulting in southwesterly winds ranging
between roughly 5-10 kts with gusts up to 15 kts this morning.
Benign marine conditions will continue through the early afternoon
ahead of an approaching cold front. Southwest winds will gradually
increase through the afternoon as the cold front approaches from the
west and the gradient tightens in response. A Small Craft Advisory
has been issued starting this evening for the southern coastal
waters and the Sound, with winds ramping up to 15 to 20 kts with
gusts to 25 kts. The Chesapeake Bay and lower James will follow suit
a few hours after sunset, with winds increasing to 15 to 20 kts.
Seas will gradually increase through Tuesday, so a subsequent SCA
was issued mainly for seas to start in the northern coastal waters
as seas reach at 4-5 ft by late morning/early afternoon Tuesday.
Another subtle surge of winds is expected late Tuesday afternoon
which will bring winds in all coastal waters to at least 15 to 20
kts with gusts to 25 kts. Winds remain elevated through early
Wednesday morning before starting to taper off. Looking at the
extended forecast, benign marine conditions will resume by mid-week
and area expected to continue through the holiday weekend.

Waves are currently 1-2 ft and seas are 2-3 ft, which will continue
through early this afternoon. Waves are expected to peak at 3-4 ft
in the Ches. Bay early Tuesday morning, with the seas peaking late
Tuesday morning into the evening at 4-5 ft (3-4 ft nearshore). Seas
may remain slightly elevated early Wednesday morning, but will fall
back to sub-SCA conditions Wednesday afternoon through the end of
the week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ630>632-634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ633-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 3 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...HET/LKB
MARINE...NB