Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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281 FXUS63 KFGF 120303 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1003 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near critical fire weather is expected today and again Sunday across much of the region as RH values fall into the 20 to 30 percent range along with wind gusts up to 30 mph. - Isolated thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and early evening for portions of far northeast ND and northwest Minnesota. A few storms could produce damaging wind gusts to 60 mph. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1003 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Showers continues across the north with a weak frontal passage. Deep inverted v soundings continue to prevent much of anything from reaching the surface and thus have continued to trim pops back. Clouds will clear for most overnight with what appears to be Alberta wildfire smoke moving in behind.. sigh. UPDATE Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Peak wind gusts so far in the forecast area in the mid 40s with minimal evidence of rain reaching the ground thus far. Kept pops under 50 to reflect the lower chances for rain to reach the ground rather than evaporate despite numerous echos across NW Minnesota. These scattered showers should persist through the next few hours along and ahead of a front sweeping into north central North Dakota currently. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 The 7 day pattern will feature a tendency towards split flow, with progressive flow across the Northern Plains. Within this flow fast moving mid level shortwaves will bring periodic shower/thunderstorm chances to the region, along with variable high/low temperatures (within a standard deviation of seasonal normals). At this point, there is not a signal in ensemble based machine learning or model climatology for severe thunderstorms or excessive rainfall next week. Regarding showers/storms this afternoon-evening: A mid level wave moving to the north this evening/tonight will push a cold front into the region, and forcing will help lead to widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the evening mainly in northwest MN (some signal farther west in CAMs). The air mass is very dry, but there is some elevated CAPE forecast to increase with steep lapse rates later this afternoon/early evening. We ultimately may see a lot of activity on radar with minimal precipitation reaching the surface (dry thunderstorm type activity). Inverted-V type soundings and DCAPE near 1000 J/KG in our north may support a few severe wind gusts to 60 mph. Regarding fire weather today and Sunday: Deep mixing and a slower recovery in BL Tds from the west has led to RH values in the upper teens to 25% range across the Red River Valley and locations east. Gusts 25-30 mph have occasionally be reported, but the window for 3hr RFW criteria hasnsn`t be there and near critical is expected through the early evening. For Sunday, the post frontal air mass should bring lower Tds in (along with cooler temps) but adjusting for biases, RH values are likely to once again drop to the 20-25% range. North or northeast winds will tend to favor higher gusts in the Red River VAlley with higher winds aloft decreasing by the afternoon north to south. The result should be near critical fire weather conditions again, with a 40% chance for critical fire weather conditions in the northern Red River Valley. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR at all sites with a few showers possible through the evening at DVL, GFK, TVF, BJI. Gusts have remained but should die off as the front sweeps through overnight. Winds northerly Sunday with gusts as high as the mid 20s though more common low 20s. SCT to BKN at 100 to 200 as these showers move through this evening. Lightning possible at northern sites but confidence is low in when/where. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TT DISCUSSION...DJR AVIATION...TT