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000
FXUS63 KFGF 261514
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1014 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Wet weekend ahead, with probabilities for greater than half
an inch of precipitation around 50 - 80% in the Red River
Valley.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Light rain continues working northward this morning, with most
areas in southeastern North Dakota now seeing rain reports.
Intermittent rain at Grand Forks will become more persistent as
the day progresses. Overall, the forecast remains on track, with
temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s and southeast winds of 15
to 25 mph.

UPDATE
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Showers are increasing in spatial coverage this morning.
Thunderstorms are possible to be embedded in this system as
well, but confidence is low in where they will occur. Forecast
remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

As the first system this weekend approaches our area, satellite show
clouds encroaching on the area. This weekend looks overcast, with
some breaks possible in the northern Devils Lake Basin between the
systems.

Synoptically, another ejecting low will follow the current system
Sunday into Monday, but precip totals look to be less with that
system. Southwest flow will stick around after that into mid-week,
allowing a active pattern to set up more rain chances into next
week.

Precipitation chances with this system look to last through early
Sunday. While probabilities for greater than half an inch of precip
are around 50 - 80% in the Red River Valley, probabilities for an
inch or more have increased to 20 - 30% south of Hwy 200 in the Red
River Valley. Higher amounts of rain (like that 1" probability) are
mainly dependent upon the track of the low and any thunderstorms
embedded in the showers (which will be dependent on MUCAPE in the
area, which continues to increase in the southern valley to about
500 - 1000 J/kg in the CAMs). Probabilities for 1" or greater
are likely increasing due to the increase in CAPE seen in
guidance. The Sunday/Monday system has much lower probabilities
for meaningful rainfall, with most likely amounts looking to be
around half an inch. Probabilities for greater than or equal to
0.5" of rain with that system are 40 - 60% along and south of
HWY 200, and Probabilities for an inch or greater are <20%.

After a rainy weekend, temperatures will rebound back into the 50s
and 60s for highs by mid-week, with lows in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR conditions will quickly degrade to MVFR/IFR this morning.
Showers will continue to increase in coverage, and while some
embedded thunderstorms are possible, confidence is too low in
where they will occur to include in the TAFs. Visibility
reductions will be possible in the showers and thunderstorms as
well. Winds will decrease into this evening and begin to shift
to the north into Saturday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...AH
AVIATION...AH