976
FXUS63 KIWX 151634
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1234 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers diminishing today then a short dry period tonight.

- More showers with scattered storms at times Thursday through
  the middle of next week. Locally downpours possible, but
  severe storms are not expected through Saturday.

- Better chances for severe storms next week Monday through
  Wednesday.

- Highs in the 70s to low 80s into the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

A cluster of smaller systems were associated with the upper low
that was drifting east over the Ohio River. Part of the energy
with this system was over the forecast area and had produced
locally heavy rainfall over 2" yesterday into last night. SPC
mesoanalysis showed precipitable water values values ranged from
1.25 to 1.35 inches which were close to the 95th percentile for
this time of year. Saturation was near 100% per HRRR and GFS
BUFKIT sounding up to 250 mb. The atmosphere will remain very
efficient in producing rain, although the upper level system
will continue to accelerate east in reaction to teleconnections
energy upstream. The next upper level system will reach the area
Thursday and is expected to produce local downpours into early
Saturday will basically have same environment as today. An EML
(Elevated Mixed Layer) should arrive Sunday ahead another system
in the series of upper level trofs as the main/longwave trof
lingers over western North America. While is is still quite a
ways out, initial thoughts include an environment that may be
favorable for severe storms next week Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Mixout to a sct-bkn VFR stratocu field the story this afternoon
as drier/subsident air is finally making inroads within northeast
flow. Ridging through the column does work in tonight with
clearing skies and lighter winds. This may allow for some BR
formation at KFWA toward daybreak given lingering near sfc
moisture.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Steinwedel