921
FXUS63 KJKL 161435 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1035 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a lull in shower and thunderstorm chances for most places
  today and tonight, higher chances return to close out the week
  and carry over into Saturday.

- Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures are expected
  to return today and then continue into the weekend. A further
  warm up is then expected into the first part of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2024

Just sent out a minor update to the forecast to remove mention of
morning fog, now that fog has dissipated across the area. Also
updated the hazardous weather outlook to remove mention of dense
morning fog. Will issue at least one more update to remove any
remaining morning wording and make other adjustments as necessary.
Lastly, used recent obs to freshen up the hourly forecast grids, T
and Td in particular. So far this morning most forecast points
have been within a degree or two of forecast temperatures and
dewpoints.

UPDATE Issued at 735 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2024

Thankfully most of the low level moisture converted to a deck of
low stratus clouds with only limited reports of dense fog. There
are even a few pockets of sprinkles moving through far southeast
parts of the area under the low clouds. Have updated the forecast
for this and cut back on the dense fog with this update, as well
as including the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 505 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2024

08Z sfc analysis shows low pressure pulling out of the area to
the east as high pressure starts to work in from the west. This
has cleared out the higher clouds but left plenty of moisture
behind through eastern Kentucky. This has encouraged a low stratus
deck to form over most of the JKL CWA along with areas of fog -
locally dense. So far, the stratus has dominated these early
morning hours, though the dense fog could still expand into dawn.
Otherwise, amid light winds, temperatures and dewpoints are mainly
in the lower 60s with RH near 100 percent.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in good
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict weak and brief ridging moving over Kentucky today.
This rise in 5h heights will be short-lived, though, as southwest
mid level flow arrives tonight with energy streaming overhead from
an open wave over the Southern Plains. The largest concentration
of this energy moves into the area Friday afternoon. The model
spread is small enough that the NBM was used as the starting
point for the short term grids along with the incorporation of the
CAMs` details for PoPs and timing through Friday.

Sensible weather features a foggy and cloudy start to the day, but
these will clear out before noon with some sunshine and warmer
temperatures returning. A stray shower or storm will be possible
in the far eastern parts of the forecast area later this
afternoon - while most places stay dry. In addition, low pressure
and a wavy frontal boundary will start to impinge on northwest
parts of the eastern Kentucky with a renewed chance for showers,
or a storm, this evening and overnight. Even so, there will
likely be enough thinning of the clouds and clear patches
during the night for a small ridge to valley split to develop in
the east along with another night of fog development - thickest
in the valleys. More showers and storms arrive on Friday as a
southern area of low pressure extends its pcpn shield up into
Kentucky with high PoPs and some moderate QPF on tap for our area.
Accordingly, WPC has places the area in a marginal risk of
flooding Friday and Friday night while SPC has a marginal threat
of severe storms in the far southwest portion of the Cumberland
Valley.

The main adjustments to the NBM starting point again consisted of
tweaking the NBM PoPs to include CAMs details for the shower and
thunder chances through Friday. The temperatures and dewpoints
from the NBM were not adjusted much considering the still high
levels of RH through much of the period - though did allow for a
touch of terrain distinction, for a time, tonight in the east.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 515 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2024

Friday night and Saturday will see likely precip as a warm front
lifts northward into the region and then a low pressure system
passes over. A deep shortwave system will then settle across the
state on Saturday as well. While thunderstorms will be possible,
especially during the afternoon/evening hours, this doesn`t look to
be a potent system. SPC has a marginal risk area for severe storms
through 12Z Saturday, then it turns into general thunder. Meanwhile,
we could see some decent rainfall out of this system at times, so
SPC does include a marginal risk across us as well. The being said,
expect the better instability and heavies rainfall to be outside of
the JKL CWA.

While the surface system should exit to our east by Sunday, it does
appear that the upper level trough will remain across much of
eastern Kentucky through the day Sunday. This, in addition to
surface northerly flow, could keep precip across the region,
especially in the higher terrain throughout the day.

Monday may be our one dry day, at least mostly. The upper level
shortwave will have exited the state between 12 and 18Z (depending
on the model), and surface high pressure will combine with upper
level ridging. That being said, the GFS does try to show some
afternoon instability and very isolated showers/storms in the
southern CWA, which made it into the NBM. This ridging and high
pressure will remain in place through Tuesday morning.

Deep troughing across the central U.S. will continue to push
eastward, with heights lowering Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. A
surface frontal boundary encompassing much of the central U.S. will
also push eastward and towards the Commonwealth. Precip will develop
ahead of this approaching front, resulting in increasing clouds and
pops by Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Pops will reach their
height during the day Wednesday as the front passes over. As far as
models are concerned, they are in MUCH better agreement compared to
24 hours ago.

Temperatures should start the period on Saturday at seasonal normals
- in the mid 70s. From this point forward they should begin to
slowly trend upwards through the first part of next week, peaking in
the mid and upper 80s by Tuesday. This will be thanks to increase SW
flow ahead of the next incoming system. Temps will remain the low
and mid 80s on Wednesday despite increased precip, with the cold
front finally passing through late in the day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2024

Low stratus dominated the later part of the night with most
terminals shut down by very low clouds along with some patches of
denser fog. The fog and low stratus will gradually begin to lift
and dissipate by 14Z most places allowing for VFR conditions by
16Z persisting through the bulk of the rest of the forecast
period - but with a caveat for later tonight when MVFR fog and
CIGs will be possible ahead of the next system. Winds will be
light and variable through this aviation cycle.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF