693
FXUS65 KPUB 171717
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1117 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and generally quiet conditions today.

- Periodic showers and thunderstorms over and near the
  mountains through next week with a brief uptick possible
  across the plains on Tuesday.

- Increasing winds and fire danger still anticipated Sunday and
  Monday, though only Baca County is critical at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 317 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024

Today`s conditions will be warm and relatively quiet as brief
upper- level ridge builds in across our forecast area. High
temperatures today will generally be in the mid-80s across the
plains and in the 70s across most of the high valleys and the
Palmer Divide. Looking at precipitation chances, the area should
remain dry today, though an isolated shower or two may be
possible over the peaks of the eastern San Juan Mountains.
Tonight will be mild and dry with clearing skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 317 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024

The period starts off relatively quiet, despite a weak boundary
dropping south across the plains. The boundary is weak with
moisture almost nonexistent, and so don`t anticipate any precip
nor impacts with FROPA Saturday morning. Some initial cooling to
the air mass is expected, though deeper westerlies quickly
assist with a warming air mass. While temps will be slightly
cooler in spots on Saturday, still anticipate above normal temps
to be in place across southern Colorado. By early afternoon,
mid level energy will propagate overhead, and will see lee
troughing occurring right along the mountain and plains
interface. This upper level support will initially help with
shower and thunderstorm development across the higher terrain.
Then, the deeper convergence noted with the lee trough will help
with expansion of this precip development across portions of
the I-25 corridor, especially the Pikes Peak/Palmer Divide
region. While showers and thunderstorms are expected, guidance
is in fair agreement with limited moisture and instability
likely still in place. I think coverage will be low, especially
with thunderstorm development, and the risk of any strong to
severe storms very low at this point.

Upper trough will be situated across the western CONUS at the
start of next week, with southwesterly flow in place across the
region. This will support additional warming for both Sunday and
Monday, along with windier conditions. Don`t anticipate any
overly strong winds or gusts during this time, however, these
winds combined with the warmth and anticipated drier conditions
will support widespread critical fire weather conditions on both
days. It is worth noting that with recent moisture and greenup
across the area, the only county/zone where fuels are critical
is Baca. If and/or when fire weather headlines are issued, at
this time, it would only be for Baca County. It does look as if
a front will try and dive south across the plains Monday night,
and potentially coming close to the area. If so, would see some
slight increased chances for precip across plains, mainly north
of Highway 50. While this is a definitely possibility, think the
strong and deep southwest flow will likely win and keep this
and most if any precip chances at bay for the time being.

By Tuesday, will see the previously mentioned trough dig across
the region and move into the Colorado area by later in the day.
At this point, the risk for critical fire weather conditions
looks low, but could easily see another day of windier and drier
conditions across portions of southern Colorado. What is
appearing more likely is returning forcing and focus for showers
and thunderstorms across the central mountains east into the
plains, along and north of Highway 50. Low confidence on the
details, but at this point, snow and impacts across the
mountains look to be low. Additionally, instability looks to be
limited at this time, which should keep the risk of severe
weather low. With the departure of this system, a return to
westerly flow with warm and dry weather looks to be in store to
end the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024

VFR conditions anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites. Winds will be light at the beginning of the taf fcst but
take on a more southwesterly wind component later this afternoon
becoming light and diurnally driven by evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...HODANISH