Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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729 FXUS65 KPUB 120458 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1058 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Initial round of precip moving over far eastern plains at this time; two more rounds of precip afterwards, the first late this afternoon/early evening and the second occurring tomorrow with the cold frontal passage. - Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the region tomorrow night, and will continue to dissipate from west to east going into the morning hours on Monday. - Showers and thunderstorms will develop, mainly during the afternoon, from Monday through Thursday. Best chance for precip on plains will be Wednesday. - High elevation snow will be possible each day, especially above 10,000 ft. - Friday will be drier, with only a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms over mountains. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 244 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 Currently... A band of precip was moving east over the far eastern plains with much needed precip occurring over this region. Another round of precip was getting organized over the S mtns/San Luis Valley and was also moving east. The primary upper low driving all of this beneficial precip was opining over the 4 corners. Cloudy to mostly cloudy skies prevailed over the region at 2 pm with temps in the 50s over the I-25 corridor, around 60 over most of the rest of the plains and mid 60s over the far eastern plains. Valleys were in teh 40s with 20s and 30s mtns. Some thunder was noted over the region, mainly over the higher terrain. Tonight and tomorrow... Initial band of precip over th far eastern plains will continue to move east into KS by late afternoon. Another band which is over the mtns will continue to organize and push east out onto the plains late this afternoon and across the rest of the plains this evening. We will then likely see a break in the precip over the region this evening into tonight, but another band of precip will start to organize over the central mtns and will push southeast during the day tomorrow. This last band is associated with the cool front that will push across the region later tomorrow morning and into the afternoon. Winds will get a bit gusty from the NW after the front goes by tomorrow afternoon. We may also see some banding precip along the mtns/plains interface late tomorrow afternoon as an area of low level convergence sets up over this region. With all of this precip, beneficial precip will continue to occur, with more much needed precip falling across the plains during the next 24 hours. As for snowfall, the best chance of seeing accumulating snow will be over the central mtns and the Pikes Peak Massif. Most of the frozen precip will fall during the daylight hours tomorrow, and this will keep the accumulating snow at the highest elevations. /Hodanish && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 244 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 Sunday night... The upper level low is going to continue to progress eastward with scattered showers and thunderstorms being possible throughout the night, and generally dissipating from west to east as the U/L low continues to pull away from the region. There will be some clearing occurring over the higher terrain by later in the night, and this will help to allow for some radiational cooling to bring down lows into the upper teens to low 20s for the highest elevations and within wind-protected high mountain valleys. Otherwise, temperatures will be more modified with clouds and moisture around. Lows will generally be in the mid 40s for most of the plains, with mid 20s to 30s elsewhere for high country. Showers and a few thunderstorms will still be possible over the eastern plains for daybreak on Monday. Monday through Friday... During this period, a longwave trough will be positioned over the central to eastern portion of the CONUS, which will allow for disturbances to continue to move over and the northwesterly mid level flow will keep a feed of moisture moving in to allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop, mainly during the afternoon hours, from Monday through Thursday. This pattern will overall not only help to keep things unsettled, but also allow for temperatures to remain on the cooler side as well, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday as a embedded shortwave transitions over and allows for northerly winds at the surface to advect in some cooler air. There could also be some high elevation snow on Tuesday and Wednesday, especially over 10,000 ft. Best chance of precip moving out onto the plains will be Wednesday and the northwesterly flow becomes even stronger behind the wave. As the shortwave moves out by Thursday morning, the plains will continue to dry out by later in the day although there will still be some afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible over the higher terrain. By Friday, there will be an eastward shift in the longwave with some slight ridging over the region, which will yield to this day will being the warmest and driest for this period, with only a few showers and thunderstorms over the mountains during the afternoon due to some residual mid level moisture and orographic lifting. -Stewey && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1042 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 Upper low will continue to translate north and east across south central Colorado and into northeastern Colorado through the day on Sunday. This will bring deformation band precipitation to the central mtns tonight and into the Pikes Peak region Sunday morning and across the southeast Plains Sunday afternoon. For COS, PUB and ALS, recent rains and light winds overnight, should allow for MVFR to possible IFR cigs to develop through the overnight hours. Breezy northerly winds to develop through the morning, with low VFR to MVFR conditions to continue into the early afternoon with scattered to numerous showers. Showers diminish with VFR conditions expected through the rest of the taf period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...STEWARD AVIATION...MW