785
FXUS63 KSGF 121705
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1205 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and t-storms (non-severe) this evening with
  increasing coverage and thunder overnight into Monday morning.

- Rain all day Monday; precipitation ending west to east
  beginning Tuesday morning.

- Additional precipitation possible late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

A surface low pressure center located over New Mexico this morning
will move northeast across the southern Plains today and is progged
to move directly through the Ozarks by early Monday morning. A plume
of moist air from the Gulf will be advecting into the region
throughout the day, allowing for PWATs of up to 1.5". Some
instability will also be filtering in, though values will stay
modest today, with just a few hundred J/kg by early evening. This
initial system will have some drier midlevel air to overcome, which
should keep coverage pretty limited through Sunday night. Those that
see showers may start to see them mid evening as the upper level
lift moves closer. A few isolated rumbles of thunder will be
possible.

Prior to tonight`s rain chances, we`ll have increasing cloud cover
throughout the day with highs nearing 80. The overnight hours will
be increasingly rainy as better synoptic forcing arrives, with lows
around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

The upper level low will begin sweeping stronger forcing through the
area during the early morning hours Monday. This will increase the
coverage of the rain showers as better instability and moisture make
their way into the region. NBM probabilities for thunder start to
ramp up around 7 a.m. Monday, with 60-70% throughout the day. This
activity is not expected to be severe; the better ingredients for
severe threats remain south of the area, with the Storm Prediction
Center bringing the Marginal Risk (1/5) up to just south of the MO
border. Since this will be an all-day+ event on already saturated
ground, there will be a localized flooding threat, however this will
not be widespread. The WPC is not expecting excessive rainfall in
the Ozarks, though widespread 1" totals and localized 2" totals are
expected. Rain will gradually end Tuesday from west to east.

Ridging will follow this activity for Wednesday, allowing for some
dry time. However, longer range models are hinting at another upper
level low that could begin to move into the region late Wednesday,
but may hold off until Thursday. It`s looking like this will bring
another 24+ hour round of rain, but there is limited confidence in
the timing and potential for severity at this time. For now, we can
take some solace from the fact that there are no areas outlined with
a severe risk in SPC`s extended outlooks.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Isolated showers and perhaps some thunder will be possible this
afternoon and evening, then will increase in coverage tonight
into Monday. Monday will see greatest coverage and
chances, but will not be an all day washout at any one TAF
site. Shower and storm chances continue Monday night into
Tuesday, but with decreasing coverage and chances with time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Titus