Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 272305 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
505 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Wdly sct tstms with small hail and wind gusts to around 45kt from
the Rio Grande Valley eastward and moving east will persist until
around 05Z. Lcl MVFR cigs possible 10-15Z thru the Pecos Valley to
KROW vcnty. Much drier westerly winds aloft next 24 hrs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...317 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry air to the west of New Mexico will shift east over the region
Wednesday and Thursday as zonal flow develops over the state. High
temperatures will warm a few degrees above normal with very dry late
afternoon breezes each day. A back door cold front will slide into
eastern NM Thursday night and introduce slightly cooler temperatures
for Friday east of the central mountain chain. Increasing low level
moisture behind the front will help generate a few dry and gusty
showers along the central mountain chain. A ridge of high pressure
will redevelop over New Mexico Saturday through much of next week.
Moisture seeping northward beneath the high will allow for a gradual
increase in shower and storm coverage each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The latest 20Z LAPS instability analysis shows a weakly unstable
atmosphere focusing over central and eastern NM ahead of a much
drier airmass approaching from the west. Radar trends show storm
coverage increasing east of the Continental Divide and over the far
northeast plains. Gusty outflow winds will be the primary concern
around the Rio Grande Valley thru 6pm as showers become increasingly
more high-based. The more robust convection will focus over east-
central and northeastern NM where deeper moisture is in place ahead
of the approaching westerly wind shift.

A deep layer dry intrusion centered over the Great Basin will move
slowly east Wednesday and Thursday as zonal flow increases within
the base of an upper trough traversing the northern Rockies. 700-
500mb layer winds near 20kt Wednesday will increase to near 35kt
Thursday as the base of the upper trough shifts north of NM. A
surface low over northeastern NM will deepen to 994mb Thursday and
combine with strong afternoon heating and deep mixing to produce
widespread breezy conditions. See the fire weather discussion for
details on elevated fire weather concerns the next several days.
Temperatures thru this period will trend back above normal with lots
of mid 90s and low 100s.

Modest changes arrive Friday as a shallow, moist back door cold
front shifts south/southwest across the eastern plains. Gap winds
are likely in the Rio Grande Valley Friday morning as surface high
pressure strengthens over the eastern plains. Temps will trend
several degrees cooler across eastern NM behind the front. The
chance for showers and storms will increase slightly as low level
upslope flow sets up beneath west/northwest flow aloft. Otherwise a
rather benign day is expected.

A 592dm H5 high will develop over northern MX Saturday and lift
north into NM for all of next week. Meanwhile, a weak upper level
low will slide slowly south along the CA coastline. 850-700mb layer
flow will slowly shift more southerly and help advect mid level
moisture into the region from northern MX and the Baja region. This
will be an important set up to watch for as any convective clusters
that develop around the region will help begin a more true monsoon
cycle.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor the
central mountain chain eastward this evening as very dry air pushes
into the area from the west. The drying trend will continue with
widespread single-digit humidities Wednesday and Thursday, as well
as poor humidity recoveries. Stronger winds aloft and a surface
trough in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, will cause
breezy surface winds to return Wednesday and especially Thursday.
Both days will feature locally critical fire weather conditions
along and just east of the central mountain chain, but locally
critical conditions will also spread over the northwest mountains
and plateau Thursday afternoon. Haines indices will reflect the
drier conditions with widespread 6`s Wednesday and Thursday.

The dry conditions will persist until a moist back door cold front
brings some humidity and Haines improvement, and cooler
temperatures, across central and eastern areas Friday. There will be
a chance for showers and thunderstorms in and east of the Sangre de
Cristos Friday, then along and east of the central mountain chain
Saturday. Saturday`s convection could reach the northwest mountains,
too.

Sunday and Monday, a mid level ridge of high pressure over NM and a
stationary upper trough over the West Coast could allow enough
elevated and low level moisture to seep northward over southern and
eastern areas for a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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