Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 300918
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
318 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT BROUGHT THE RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH THIS MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
OVER THE STATE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE MAY. ENOUGH REMAINING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO
PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM NEAR A TAOS TO ABQ TO ROSWELL LINE EARLY
THIS MORNING. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER SOUTHERN CHAVES
COUNTY AS OF THIS WRITING. MODELS CONTINUE IDEA THAT A RATHER
LIMITED CROP OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH
THE RELATIVELY COOL LOW LEVELS AND WARMING TEMP ALOFT. ONE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS WHERE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT COMBINES WITH
WARMER SFC TEMPS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION. LIGHT NLY
STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
MORE STABLE VALLEYS/BASINS. DESPITE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TRANSLATING EWD OVER NM SUNDAY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH
THAT BOTH GFS AND NAM GENERATE A HEALTHY CROP OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MOVING
IT SLOWLY S AND SEWD DURING THE EVENING. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A
CARBON COPY OF SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A MORE WLY COMPONENT TO STORM
MOTION AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OF NM TUESDAY. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER MOST
AREAS. GFS KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SE PLAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. DRYLINE
IS PROGGED TO SURGE WWD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN RETREATS EWD INTO
TX WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TX LINE AS IT
RETREATS. A RATHER STRONG LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO
WINDY CONTINUES EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EACH AFTERNOON
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT AS THE FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN. ECMWF
IS MUCH DEEPER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. GFS IS
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO DRY THINGS OUT
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD AND DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK AND A RETURN TO DRIER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS.

A BACK DOOR FRONT RACED THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GAP WINDS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS USHERING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE INCREASES
AND TEMPERATURE DECREASES SHOULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY MID MORNING. PRECIPITATION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FAVORED THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING IN SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE AXIS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
BY SUNDAY. DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE RECYCLING WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SLOW MOVEMENT ONCE DEVELOPED. WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST...VENTILATION
WILL BE POOR TO FAIR EASTERN ZONES TODAY WITH MAINLY FAIR VALUES IN
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND GOOD TO VERY GOOD LEVELS ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND ALL ZONES ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING MIXING
HEIGHTS AND IMPROVED VENTILATION.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
GENERALLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH
INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY.
MIN RH VALUES DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL ZONES ON MONDAY...AND OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY. SOME SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGH HAINES OF 6 MOST
ZONES. VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION EXPECTED ALL ZONES.

BROAD TROUGH TO DOMINATE THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. MIN RH LOOKS TO BE BELOW 15 PERCENT...WITH SINGLE DIGIT
VALUES COMMON ALL BUT THE EXTREME EASTERN PLAIN. HIGH HAINES OF SIX
WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
PERIOD FOR POSSIBLE CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED MODELS NOT REALLY IN AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THUS SOME UNCERTAINTY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AFTER 1ST ROUND OF SEVERE WX OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THE 2ND BATCH
OF -TSRA IS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AREA OF RA W/ EMBEDDED -TSRA.
GREATEST IMPACTS FROM LOW CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST SLOPE
SOUTH AND EAST TO NEAR KROW. GAP WINDS ENTERING THE RGV CURRENTLY
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KTS. AWW CRITERIA TO 35KTS AT KABQ MAY OCCUR
BRIEFLY BUT CONFIDENCE LOW ON ISSUANCE. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL VERY
SLOWLY EXIT THE EAST AFT SUNRISE SATURDAY. -SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/WESTERN NM AFT 21Z WHERE THE
FOCUS OF THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  81  51  87  55 /   5   5   5  10
DULCE...........................  75  39  81  41 /  30   5  20  10
CUBA............................  74  43  81  48 /  20  10  30  30
GALLUP..........................  80  44  84  46 /  10  10  10  10
EL MORRO........................  76  44  81  47 /  30  30  30  20
GRANTS..........................  77  39  82  45 /  30  30  20  20
QUEMADO.........................  78  48  80  48 /  20  30  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  87  51  86  51 /  20  10  40  20
CHAMA...........................  69  35  74  39 /  30  20  40  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  70  51  77  56 /  40  20  60  50
PECOS...........................  67  47  77  52 /  30  20  30  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  69  45  77  49 /  20  20  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  61  37  67  39 /  30  30  60  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  64  36  70  37 /  30  30  60  50
TAOS............................  70  41  77  43 /  10  10  20  20
MORA............................  65  43  74  48 /  20  30  40  40
ESPANOLA........................  77  52  83  53 /  10  10  10  10
SANTA FE........................  71  49  78  54 /  20  10  10  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  74  47  81  51 /  10  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  78  54  83  58 /  20  20  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  79  55  85  57 /  10  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  81  52  87  53 /  10  10   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  80  54  86  56 /  10  10   5  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  81  51  87  53 /  20  10  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  79  54  85  57 /  10  10  10  10
SOCORRO.........................  83  55  87  56 /  20  30  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  71  50  79  54 /  20  30  30  30
TIJERAS.........................  73  47  81  55 /  10  20  20  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  71  41  81  45 /  10  10  10  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  69  49  79  51 /  20  10  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  73  51  80  52 /  20  20  10  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  77  53  81  55 /  20  50  10  20
RUIDOSO.........................  67  44  75  46 /  30  60  50  40
CAPULIN.........................  65  48  77  51 /  10  30  20  30
RATON...........................  70  46  80  48 /  10  40  20  20
SPRINGER........................  70  47  80  49 /  10  30  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  66  44  77  47 /  20  30  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  68  52  81  55 /  10  10  10  10
ROY.............................  67  51  79  51 /  10  10  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  73  55  85  57 /  10  10  10  10
SANTA ROSA......................  73  54  85  53 /  10  10  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  74  55  84  60 /  10   5   5  10
CLOVIS..........................  71  54  80  56 /  20   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  74  56  81  60 /  20   5   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  74  57  82  56 /  20   5   5  10
ROSWELL.........................  77  59  84  59 /  20  20   5  10
PICACHO.........................  72  56  81  55 /  20  30  20  10
ELK.............................  69  54  77  55 /  20  30  30  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33


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