Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 011820 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
120 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 116 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 1043 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

A swath of mid level clouds across the central CWA is influencing
temperatures this morning. Most model output cloud cover is much
too far east. The resultant model guidance for temperatures seems
too cool across the eastern quarter of the CWA, and perhaps just a
few degrees too warm across the central CWA. Tried to adjust this
trend within the MaxT and hourly grids. Besides those adjustments
to clouds/temps no other changes were made with the morning
update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

The majority of the short term period will be dry as the region will
be situated between high pressure to the east and low pressure to
the west. This will keep southerly winds in place, with breezy
conditions at times, which will aid in bringing warm air up into the
region. The low to the west will intensify and reach the western
high plains on Monday, bringing a chance of precipitation to the
western CWA. May be a few thunderstorms Monday afternoon as models
are indicating 500-800 J/KG MUCAPE values.

With the warm southerly flow in place, temperatures will be above
normal through the period. Generally looking at daytime highs in the
mid 70s to lower 80s, with overnight lows in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

A deep trough will begin to push into the plains at the start of the
work week. This system is atmospherically stacked with a 980MB sfc
low also moving into the Dakotas Monday night. Models are showing
a good chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday night into early
Tuesday. However, while Superblend lingers precip over the entire
region into Wednesday, the GFS has now picked up on the ECMWF`s
trend of dryslotting areas west of the I-29 corridor by mid
morning Tuesday. So, if trends continue, will likely need to
reduce pops on Tue/Wed in the forecast. Once this sfc low exits,
the region is expected to dry out for the rest of the week.

Temperatures will see a downward trend as the trough digs into the
Plains. Highs near 70 on Tuesday will fall to around 60 on Thu and
Fri. Saturday will see a slight rebound as another upper ridge
begins to build in to the central U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 116 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

Vfr conditions are expected at all locations through the period. The
possible exception involves an area of cloud cover that could become
MVFR across parts of eastern South Dakota later tonight. Confidence
not too high at this time however. Otherwise no reduction in
visibility anticipated, winds to die down tonight as well.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lueck
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lueck



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