Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KABR 292329 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
629 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN
CANADA MOVING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE
IT DOWN INTO SD ON TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. WITH
LIMITED CAPE OVER EASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN DECIDED TO LEAVE
OUT A MENTION OF THUNDER PRIOR TO 18Z. THERE IS NO FORCING
MECHANISM OTHER THAN SOME TRANSIENT WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS
THE EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. OUT WEST THERE IS A SFC LOW THAT
WILL HELP TO DRAW UP MOISTURE ON SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. CAPE IS ALSO MORE ABUNDANT WEST RIVER. THEREFORE KEPT
POPS HIGHER IN GENERAL WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY
FLOW AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CANADA DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. IT WILL REMAIN
AN ACTIVE PERIOD UNDER THIS FLOW PATTERN...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
ENERGY MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MOST NOTABLE OF THOSE
INCLUDE A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN ON
SATURDAY...AND A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. THE CURRENT
TIMING OF THE THURSDAY SYSTEM HAS IT MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE DAY...AND PRETTY LIMITED CAPE AND SHEAR...SO OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS RELATIVELY LOW. THE SATURDAY /4TH OF JULY/
SYSTEM SEEMS A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THE CURRENT SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SUGGESTS WE ARE ABLE TO TAP
INTO GULF MOISTURE AND DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
COMBINED WITH 25 TO 35 KTS OF SHEAR...THERE IS CERTAINLY A SEVERE
POTENTIAL. STILL A LOT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY ISSUES...BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSELY WATCHED GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THEN...AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...A DISTINCT COLD FRONT BRINGS ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...IT LOOKS LIKE A
RELATIVELY COOL DAY THURSDAY /HIGHS IN THE 70S/ BUT THEN RETURNS
TO SEASONAL VALUES IN THE 80S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY. MAY SEE SOME RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF
TIMING AND LOCATION...HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR
THE TIME BEING.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.