Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KARX 072327
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
527 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

ALL EYES ARE ON INCOMING COLDER AIR AND WIND HEADING THROUGH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND JUST HOW MUCH IMPACT WILL BE NOTED FROM THAT
COMBINATION...AS WELL AS PERIODS OF WHAT SHOULD BE SOME QUITE FLUFFY
SNOW SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS THE REGION. EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS
PLACES A COLD FRONT QUICKLY WORKING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...TIED TO LOW PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD. THAT FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...
WITH QUITE THE CORE OF 45-55 KNOTS OF WIND IN THE 925-850MB LAYER
WORKING MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF MINNESOTA DOWN INTO
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA...BUT SOME OF THIS CLIPPING AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. DEEPENING MIXING WITHIN RATHER STRONG
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE TRANSPORTING A BUNCH OF
THAT FLOW DOWN TO THE GROUND...AS EVIDENCED BY GUSTS ALREADY PUSHING
40-50MPH TO OUR NORTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT.

AS DISCUSSED AT LENGTH THE PAST FEW DAYS...LOWER VISIBILITY IN
BLOWING SNOW IS PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN JUST OFF TO OUR WEST...BUT THE
MAIN QUESTION IS JUST HOW FAR EAST THE HIGHER IMPACTS WILL STRETCH.
PER FORECAST RAOBS...STILL ANTICIPATING GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WEST OF
HIGHWAY 63...BUT WITH THE WARMTH ONGOING TODAY AND A QUICK FREEZE
INTO THE EVENING...THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A
CRUST WILL EXIST ON THE THE EXISTING SNOW PACK TO POTENTIALLY
PREVENT MUCH BLOWING. TO BE HONEST...THAT IS A LEGITIMATE CONCERN
WITH MELTING ONGOING TODAY...BUT HAVE A FEELING THAT AS THE TOP
LAYER FREEZES AND THEN FRACTURES WITH THAT WIND...WE WILL SEE AT
LEAST ENOUGH SNOW TO BLOW AROUND. IN ADDITION...THERE SHOULD BE
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
RIGHT ON INTO MONDAY...ENHANCED BOTH BY VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND THE FACT THE PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE SATURATED COLUMN LIES
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SUPPORTING A VERY FLUFFY NATURE
TO FALLING SNOW. STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HUGE AMOUNTS...BUT A
FRESH FLUFFY INCH OR TWO (MAYBE 3 IN A FEW SPOTS WHERE ANY
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS SET UP) STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. COMBINE THAT
WITH WINDS AND CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS THAN PLEASANT WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI (AND PERHAPS EVEN ALONG THE RIDGES INTO WISCONSIN)...
WITH CURRENT HEADLINES WELL JUSTIFIED FOR NOW.

SNOW SHOWERS LOOKING TO WIND DOWN INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PULLS EAST...THOUGH WITH PLENTY OF COLDER AIR OVERHEAD AND
PERSISTENT STEEPER LAPSE RATES...HAVE A FEELING CLOUDS AND FLURRIES
WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST A PART OF TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...APPROACHING
LOW LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD GRADUALLY SETTLE DOWN WINDS INTO TUESDAY...
THOUGH HONESTLY IT STILL LOOKS RATHER BREEZY RIGHT ON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

LOOKING LIKE A RELATIVELY BENIGN AND SEASONABLY CHILLY PERIOD OF
WEATHER THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS OVERALL UPPER
TROUGHING DOMINATES MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND POINTS EAST.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...SEVERAL BOUTS OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ARE
PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA...HELPING ENSURE AN OVERALL DRY
FLAVOR TO THE FORECAST. THE ONE PERIOD OF INTEREST STILL REMAINS
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ELONGATED WEAK UPPER WAVE AND A TIGHTENING FGEN RESPONSE SOMEWHERE
NEARBY AT THE PATTERN BRIEFLY RELAXES JUST TO OUR WEST (WHILE WE
REMAIN TUCKED UNDER SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR). THAT MAY TRIGGER A
BAND OF SNOW PERHAPS ATTEMPTING TO CLIP PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF ANY SUCH BAND REMAINS QUITE
LOW...WITH AN OVERALL TREND TOWARD A DIMINISHING SIGNAL IN THE
GUIDANCE FOR SUCH A FEATURE TO REALLY IMPACT THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW MUCH WE WILL RELOAD THE
UPPER TROUGH TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE ECMWF MOST PERSISTENT IN
ITS SIGNAL WHILE THE GFS/GEM START TO REALLY RETREAT THE COLDER AIR
TO THE EAST. REGARDLESS...WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING PRETTY MUCH IN FIRM
CONTROL...LIMITED MIXING IN SHALLOW COLDER AIR SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MULTIPLE UPDATES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE TAF AIRFIELDS...BRINGING STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO BETWEEN 24 AND 32 KTS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
AND PERIODIC REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF PRECIPITATION...VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT VISIBILITY/CEILING
RESTRICTIONS BEYOND 08.06Z...SO WILL FOCUS THE MOST DETAIL IN THE
FIRST SIX HOURS OF THE TAF...MAINTAINING GENERAL WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. VISIBILITY COULD BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 1 SM
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

COLD FRONT AS OF 07.2330Z LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM JUST EAST OF
KMSP TO KSUX. AT ITS CURRENT SPEED...EXPECT IT TO REACH KRST
SHORTLY AFTER 08.00Z AND SHORTLY AFTER 08.01Z AT KLSE. AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MID 20 TO MID
30 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF PERIOD...COMBINED
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND AT LEAST PERIODIC MVFR VISIBILITY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ086-094.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ079-087-088-
     095-096.

IA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ008-009-018-019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ010-011-029-
     030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ROGERS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.