Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 142322
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
622 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE ONGOING FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. NO MAJOR CHANGES BEING MADE
AT THIS TIME. THE STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO INITIATE MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT EITHER.

FOR MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN AN
ATMOSPHERE IN WHICH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BUT SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE AS A COUPLE OF OTHER SHORTWAVES PASS THE
AREA.

THEREAFTER ITS PRETTY MUCH A DRY FORECAST. THERE WILL BE A
BACKDOOR FRONT PUSH THROUGH ON FRIDAY THAT WILL HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE OF GENERATING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IN THE EAST.
OTHERWISE WILL BE A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MID AND UPPER 80S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER BUT NOT UNUSUAL TEMPS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. MORNING LOWS WILL EVENTUALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CURRENT MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHES JUST WEST OF MGM TO JUST SOUTH OF
ANB. THIS AXIS WILL SLIDE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND STALL
OUT JUST EAST OF TCL. THIS WILL PUT ALL BUT TCL INTO A PRIME AREA
FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE. THE RICHEST AIRMASS IS
IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST...SO WENT WITH IFR CIGS HEREBY
10Z...WITH THE LOWEST AT TOI AND MGM. MVFR CIG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 15 TO 18Z AS WELL BEFORE LIFTING.AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN
EXTRA MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP
INCREASE SHOWERS/STORMS FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE FURTHER WEST A SITE THE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









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