Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBMX 010204
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
904 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL NO BIG CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. DID GO AHEAD AND
ADD IN PATCHY FOG MAINLY ALONG THE RIVERS...OTHER BODIES OF
WATER...AND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AS DEWPOINTS ARE NOT DROPPING OFF
AT ALL AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TIME OF NEAR SATURATION
POINT...THAT MAY RESULT IN THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TO SEE IF ANYTHING NEEDS TO BE ADDED FOR MORE PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A TOUCH DRIER THIS EVENING IN THE LOW LEVELS SO LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. HOWEVER DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED HIGH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
LOWS...SO PATCHY FOG IS BECOMING A LITTLE BIT MORE APPARENT.
ADDED IN MVFR BR FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR BHM. CONFIDENCE HIGHEST
AT MGM AND TOI AND MAY NEED TO ADD IN A TEMPO GROUP WITH THE NEXT
ROUND OF TAFS IF CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE.

16


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD VALUES. NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 251 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST
AND BROAD TROUGHING TO OUR WEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE. ONLY MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VARY FROM THE EAST TO
NORTH...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LOW. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED
COVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ROTATES NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS...HIGHS
IN THE LOW 90S ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE FROM MID WEEK FORWARD REGARDING
THE PROGRESSION OF THE BROAD TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THE GFS RETROGRADES
THE TROUGH FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE
TROUGH EASTWARD OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH
WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAIN WEAK AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW POPS. ALSO...RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES
IN THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  89  69  92  69 /  10  10   0  10  10
ANNISTON    69  89  70  91  71 /  10  10   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  90  72  92  71 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  70  93  73  93  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
CALERA      70  90  73  92  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      70  89  73  90  73 /  10  10  10  20  10
MONTGOMERY  70  94  73  95  74 /  10  10  10  20  10
TROY        69  93  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.