Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBMX 032007
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS PUSHED TO NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA...CALERA...ASHLAND LINE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN CONFINED TO MAINLY MARION AND
WINSTON COUNTIES...WITH 2 T 4 INCHES OF RAIN. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE STILL IN THE 2-2.5 INCH PER HOUR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND BELIEVE THE GROUND WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE FORECAST
RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...AND WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT EASTWARD THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE TROF AXIS FINALLY SHIFTING EAST OF ALABAMA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER AND LESS CONVECTIVE NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS ALABAMA THAN THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30-35 PERCENT
RANGE FOR NOW...BUT COULD REDUCE POPS IN LATER FORECASTS IF THE
GFS TRENDS DRIER.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SURE CREATED A DIFFICULT
FORECAST FROM AN AVIATION PERSPECTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MUCH
OF THE COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS NEXT TO USELESS...AS IT SHOWS
RAIN CHANCES AS WAY TOO LOW FOR PLACES LIKE BHM AND ANB THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE INDEED
STARTED TO REFORM RIGHT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...VERY NEAR BHM
OVER TO ANB/ASN. THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR THAT BOUNDARY TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRING UP
ALONG IT...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING TCL AND EET ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS. HARD TO GET A GRASP UP HOW FAR SOUTH THE
RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY GET...HOWEVER. I INCLUDED A VCSH AT MGM TO AT
LEAST SHOW THE POSSIBILITY THERE. LEFT IT OUT AT TOI DUE TO EVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY. EVEN OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS...CEILINGS ARE A BIT
UNCERTAIN AS WELL.

/61/


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  82  69  83  68 /  80  80  50  60  30
ANNISTON    70  84  69  83  68 /  70  70  60  60  30
BIRMINGHAM  71  83  70  84  70 /  80  80  60  60  30
TUSCALOOSA  71  85  71  87  70 /  70  80  60  60  30
CALERA      70  85  70  85  70 /  60  70  60  60  30
AUBURN      71  86  70  85  70 /  20  50  60  50  30
MONTGOMERY  73  90  72  87  71 /  20  60  60  60  30
TROY        72  90  71  88  70 /  20  50  60  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.