Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
FXUS64 KBMX 240353
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1053 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016
For 06Z Aviation.
Temperatures have warmed up nicely this afternoon, with current
temperatures 35-40 degrees warmer than morning lows in most
locations. This is due to full sunshine, the drought, and the
ceasing of the cold air advection from previous days. Winds are
lighter today, but RHs have fallen to critical values in most
areas with several reports of wildfires. Tonight through tomorrow
increased upper-level moisture due to a decaying shortwave will
produce some passing cirrus at times. Low temperatures tonight
will not be as cool as this morning given the warmer temperatures
this afternoon, but still expect fairly good radiational cooling
conditions with surface high pressure in place. Will continue to
use the coldest guidance numbers given the ongoing drought, with
most locations in the lower 40s and a couple upper 30s possible.
The warming trend will continue tomorrow with most areas reaching
the low 80s.
A weak cold front currently moving through the Midwest will move
into the area late Monday but will be dry and in the process of
dissipating. Low-level easterly flow will develop Tuesday and
Wednesday as a large surface high moves eastward from the Great
Lakes to the East Coast, with wedging keeping areas near the
Georgia state line in the 70s for highs while elsewhere highs in
the 80s will continue. With low-level flow becoming southeasterly
some stratus may push into the southeast counties Wednesday
Models are in fairly good agreement with the overall timing and
strength of the shortwave and associated surface low moving
through the Midwest Wednesday and Thursday, with only subtle
differences in the moisture fields this far south. Moisture return
continues to look limited with easterly winds prevailing over the
northern Gulf. Will continue to forecast only a slight chance of
showers north after midnight Wednesday night in association with
the shortwave trough, and due to cold air aloft resulting in weak
instability on Thursday. Any rainfall amounts will be light and
not help the drought situation. Models show a variety of solutions
Friday and through next weekend regarding the details of various
shortwaves in the active northern stream and associated cold
fronts. These differences only result in minor differences in day
to day temperatures and dew points, with dry and overall warmer
than normal temperatures expected to continue.
06Z TAF Discussion.
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Some high
cirrus are expected to move eastward into Central Alabama
overnight, but will be the only clouds expected. Very light or
calm winds overnight will become northwesterly between 5 and 7
knots for most terminals by Monday afternoon.
KASN has returned to service, and AMD NOT SKED has been removed
from the TAF.
RH values will fall to critical values (25%) for a few hours on
Monday afternoon, but winds will be light. RH values will be
slightly higher on Tuesday afternoon but still in the 25-30%
range, with readings near 35% on Wednesday afternoon. Only small
rain chances are forecast north late Wednesday night into
Thursday. Extremely dry ground and vegetation will continue to
promote a much higher than normal risk of wildfires.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 41 81 45 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
Anniston 44 82 47 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
Birmingham 48 82 50 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
Tuscaloosa 44 82 49 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
Calera 46 82 50 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
Auburn 45 81 51 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
Montgomery 45 83 51 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
Troy 41 82 47 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 0