Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 212124
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
324 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Through Tonight.

An upper low currently centered over Arkansas and Louisiana is
slowly spinning eastward toward Alabama this afternoon with a deep
fetch of onshore moisture in the lower and upper levels helping
to spread widespread light to moderate rain shower activity
across Central Alabama today. This rain shower activity should
continue through the evening hours across Central Alabama ahead of
the main low. As the night progresses, we should see the upper
low move to the east/southeast toward the Northern Gulf Coast by
morning. Remaining activity after midnight should be lighter in
nature across Central Alabama as the best QPF is expected to
transition to near the coast. With extensive cloud cover,
continuing showers, and no significant change in airmass expected
temperatures will not vary much overnight from during the day
with little diurnal effect.

08

.LONG TERM...
Wednesday through Monday.

Light showers are possible on Wednesday with good deep-layer
moisture lingering across the forecast area as a closed upper low
moves across the northern Gulf toward the Florida Keys. Shower
activity may be enhanced by daytime heating with highs expected to
be in the 70s. The highest rain chances should be across the East
in closer proximity to the upper low. As the low moves away and
the boundary layer cools, rain chances should end by sunset on
Wednesday evening with dry conditions through Friday afternoon.
Very warm temperatures are expected on Thursday and Friday as
higher heights aloft move into the region. The 80 degree mark
should be breached in several locations.

The upper low is expected to move more slowly for Thursday and
Friday and linger near the Bahamas. This pattern is not conducive
for strong moisture return in advance of the next system coming
our way on Friday. Just enough moisture could meet with an
approaching cold front for showers to develop Friday night into
early Saturday, but potential rainfall amounts appear rather light
at this time. A cold morning is expected on Sunday behind the
front as high pressure moves into the region.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Surface low near Memphis TN will move east across the state this
afternoon and evening while an upper low over central AR will move
southeast toward the central Gulf Coast tonight. A southeast low
level flow will become northerly on Wednesday. BKN/OVC skies will
persist through this forecast cycle with lowering CIG`s overnight.
Rain showers are expected at all sites through the period.
Potential for TS is too low to mention at any site but is possible
this afternoon through early evening due to steepening lapse rates
with the approach of the upper low. VIS will decrease at most
sites toward daybreak on Wednesday as showers persist. CIGs and
VIS will improve near the end and beyond this forecast cycle.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Widespread off and on light to moderate rain will continue into
tonight with a decrease in activity for Wednesday. Dry and warm
conditions return for Thursday and Friday. There are no fire
weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     57  71  52  75  52 /  90  50  10  10   0
Anniston    57  71  54  76  54 /  90  50  10  10   0
Birmingham  57  71  55  77  57 /  80  40  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  57  73  54  78  55 /  70  30  10   0   0
Calera      57  72  54  77  56 /  90  40  10   0   0
Auburn      58  70  56  77  55 / 100  50  10   0   0
Montgomery  58  72  56  79  56 / 100  50  10   0   0
Troy        56  71  54  79  55 / 100  50  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$

08/87/05



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