Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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745
FXUS64 KBMX 251201
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
601 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight.

Look for increasing clouds during the afternoon as a cold front will
slide through the area. Not expecting any rain from the front as it
does remain fairly dry out there. Latest models are hinting at maybe
some sprinkles at best in the north after 1 pm, so went ahead and
included occasional sprinkles generally north of a Birmingham to
Anniston line. Clearing skies tonight and cool temperatures will be
in place once again as a dry airmass works into the region.

16

.LONG TERM...
Sunday through Friday.

The large scale weather pattern through the long term portion of
the forecast will be a tendency toward upper level troughiness in
the eastern half of the county. This will largely keep the Gulf
moisture source shut off, and rain chances to a minimum.

Having said that, there is a slight deviation from this big
picture idea in the middle of the week. The pattern briefly goes
more zonal, allowing a mid-level shortwave trough to zip across
the southern portion of the country...affecting Alabama on
Wednesday. Passage of this trough will likely be accompanied by
another period of cloudiness and some showers. Another, more
latitudinally developed, trough then follows quickly behind the
first trough. This second shortwave will help drive the next cold
front through our area by the end of the week. Since the front and
associated shortwave trough follow so closely behind the lead
shortwave, it appears there is no time for destabilization ahead
of it/them. Will maintain chance of showers (no thunderstorms, as
of yet) until the next push of dry air comes in on Friday.

All in all, nothing too extreme in the extended forecast. That
could change further down the road, as the models suggest an upper
level ridge developing along the Gulf coast early next week, which
could lead to warmer than normal temps. But that is beyond the
scope of this forecast period for now.

61


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Starting with high clouds north and patchy fg south. This will
give way to mid level clouds today and possibly a sprinkle at
ANB/ASN this afternoon as a cold front passes through. Clearing
skies this evening as a dry airmass works in. Fog should not be an
impact overnight as the airmass will be much drier.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The forecast features overall dry conditions and near normal
temperatures through the weekend and into early next week. A few
sprinkles can not be ruled out this afternoon across the far north
but accumulations are not expected. There are no fire weather
concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     66  35  60  32  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
Anniston    67  36  59  35  62 /  10   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  65  38  61  36  62 /  10   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  67  39  63  35  64 /  10   0   0   0   0
Calera      65  39  63  35  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
Auburn      68  41  59  39  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  68  40  63  36  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Troy        70  40  63  37  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



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