Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 060910
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
310 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TODAY BEFORE
TURNING NE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ENDING UP GENERALLY OVER UTAH
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE LOW...WITH PLENTY OF MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. INSTABILITY
IS STILL FORECAST TO BE HIGHER TODAY THAN YDAY OVER ERN OREGON
AND SW IDAHO...WITH STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. CAPE VALUES ARE
FORECAST BETWEEN 100 AND 500 THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL INCLUDE SMALL
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME STORMS YDAY
DUMPED A QUICK HALF INCH OF RAIN YDAY. THE SRN HALF OF THE
AREA... GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BURNS TO BOISE TO THE BOISE
MOUNTAINS...STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TODAY. SPC HAS REDUCED THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF THE MARGINAL CATEGORY AND RESTRICTED IT TO
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA. CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK TODAY...MUCH LIKE YDAY...OVER MOST OF THE
AREA. TONIGHT STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE
EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST...IT TAKES SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY WITH IT AND STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG OR
AS NUMEROUS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH LIKE
TODAY...WITH READINGS FORECAST A FEW DEGREES HIGHER IN SE OREGON
AND A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST
ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN CANADA. DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD END THE SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
ON MONDAY...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CANADIAN TROUGH
CROSSES NORTHERN IDAHO. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING MOSTLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF A KREO-KBOI-KMYL LINE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END BY 06Z BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE AFTER 06Z SOUTH OF A KBNO-FAIRFIELD LINE. SURFACE
WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS THIS MORNING BECOMING NORTH 10-15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM GUSTS TO 35 KTS. WINDS ALOFT AT
10K FT MSL...SOUTHEAST 10-20 KTS THIS MORNING BECOMING NORTHEAST
10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT



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