Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 032038
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
238 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON IS SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO. CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING AS
CONVECTIVE TOPS APPROACH 35K FT NEAR THE NV BORDER AS OF 2 PM.
RADAR WAS SHOWING EXPANDING ECHOES FROM SE OWYHEE THROUGH TWIN
FALLS COUNTIES....WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES APPROACHING JARBIDGE AS
OF 2 PM. S-CENTRAL IDAHO IS WHERE GFS SHOWS 40-50KTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR AND -4C LI WITH THE RAP INDICATING SOME CAPE TO 400J/KG...FOR
A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT IS
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LIFT EXITS THE
AREA TO THE NE LEAVING THE INTERSTATE-84 CORRIDOR FROM BAKER TO
TWIN FALLS MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. AREAS ALONG THE NV BORDER NEARER
THE LOW WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATE
SHOWER THERE. THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTH...A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CROSS SW IDAHO AND SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS SE OREGON EXCEPT NEAR THE NV BORDER. SO
KEPT SOME LOW POPS THURSDAY WITHIN ABOUT 75 MILES OF THE NV BORDER
AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MAINLY EAST
OF A MCCALL- IDAHO CITY LINE...MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
BE PRECIP-FREE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE A SURGE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND MOISTURE. TIMING HAS VARIED AND HOW MUCH PRECIP AND
WHERE THE MAX WILL BE IS UNCERTAIN STILL. MOISTURE AND ENERGY WORK
AROUND THE LOW FROM OFFSHORE ON THE SOUTH OF THE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON UP OVER NV THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS. THIS COULD FOCUS THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH...OR IF
UPPER SUPPORT IS STRONG ENOUGH...THE MAX COULD END UP OVER
S-CENTRAL OR CENTRAL IDAHO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. FOR NOW
HAVE GONE WITH MODEL BLENDS/ENSEMBLE TO TONE DOWN SOME INCH IN
ABOUT 12 HR VALUES SEEN IN SOME RUNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH
ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL IN THE SHORT TERM. THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAIN FROM STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES FRIDAY DUE
TO HIGHER PWAT VALUES /AROUND 0.7 INCHES/ AND SLOWER STORM
MOVEMENTS /10-15 MPH/.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO STAY ROUGHLY STATIONARY OVER NEVADA AND SLOWLY GET
ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND.  HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
POSITIONED  WELL TO TAP INTO AND BRING NORTH SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH /NOW HURRICANE/ BLANCA. AT THE SAME TIME... AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF WA/OR AND BE SLIGHTLY
FOLDED OVER THE ABOVE-MENTIONED LOW...AND IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
ABSORB IT. THE BORDER OF INFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES /LAYING
NW TO SE/ WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF OUR CWA SEES SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND...THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES...BUT LEFTOVER
MOISTURE MAY KEEP CONDITIONS MUGGY...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME PASSING SHORTWAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SUNSET AND BKN-OVC MID-HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS 15 KTS OR
LESS...BUT GUSTY UP TO 35 KTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR
10K FT MSL...WEST 10 KTS...THEN AFTER 04/10Z...SOUTHEAST 10-15
KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP/DD
AVIATION.....EP



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