Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 210253

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
853 PM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...No changes to current forecast. Gusty winds from the
afternoon have weakened this evening for much of the area.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Friday as the dry
southwest flow continues. Generally dry conditions expected
through Sunday morning. Models indicate the potential for some
weak moisture to begin on Sunday, which may result in the
beginning of unsettled conditions across much of the area.


.AVIATION...VFR. Surface winds variable 5-15 kts. Winds aloft to 10k
feet MSL, westerly 10-20 kts.

Weekend Outlook... Mostly clear throughout the weekend with a slight
chance of afternoon thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, mostly for the
higher elevations of SE Oregon.


SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday...Mostly clear skies
through Saturday as dry westerly flow remain over the region. An
upper level low moving east across southwestern Canada today will
will shift the flow aloft from southwest to west. A dry weak
cold front will move across the forecast area this afternoon.
Winds will be locally breezy but for most areas the winds will be
less than 15 mph through this evening. Temperatures will remain
around normal through Saturday.

LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday...Warm dry
conditions will continue through Sunday. A trough off the
California coast will begin to shift the westerly flow into
southerly flow on Sunday afternoon, warming temperatures slightly.
Monsoon moisture will move northward over the Great Basin Sunday
afternoon, increasing the chances of thunderstorms thereafter.
Precipitable water values will increase to around 1.00in, or in
the 90th percentile for this time of year. The trough slowly moves
inland on Monday and across SW Idaho sometime on Tuesday
afternoon, keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be around 5 degrees above normal. After that,
forecast confidence is low for Wednesday and Thursday, although
temperatures should remain slightly above normal.





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