Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 050309 AAA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
909 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE/ AT 9 PM MDT KCBX RADAR SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ORIENTED EAST/WEST ACROSS OWYHEE COUNTY AND MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE SNAKE
RIVER.  WE ESTIMATE IT WILL REACH THE SNAKE RIVER AROUND 930 PM AND
CONTINUE NORTH...POSSIBLE REACHING THE BOISE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 10 PM MDT./

...SO FAR THIS EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...BUT ONE MADE IT ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF THE
BORDER IN OWYHEE COUNTY AROUND 7 PM MDT.  ANOTHER PRODUCED OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH AND BLOWING DUST AT ANDREWS/OR JUST EAST OF STEENS
MOUNTAIN.  TWIN FALLS REPORTED SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH THIS EVENING
WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH.  NO SIGN
OF OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE TREASURE VALLEY.  CURRENT FORECAST STILL
LOOKS GOOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...BUT 30-60 MILES FARTHER NORTH THAN TODAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  TEMPS WILL BE
A FEW DEGS COOLER SUNDAY.  BOISE REACHED 100F TODAY FOR THE 9TH
STRAIGHT DAY OF 100F OR WARMER...TYING A RECORD FOR MOST CONSECUTIVE
DAYS...BUT SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A KBNO-KTWF LINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
SPREADING NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST
AND SOUTH OF KBOI AND THE BOISE AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT LOCAL WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
IN BLOWING DUST IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE 5-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-20 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH AND RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL DO BATTLE THROUGH TOMORROW.
THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE FURTHER AWAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND
BRINGING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN BEST IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS EVENING...BEFORE ALSO MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY OF THE SHORT TERM. BY
TUE AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY LOCATED WELL OFF THE
COAST OF CA...NEAR 32N/132W...WILL MOVE NE TO A POSITION NEAR 28N/
128W. THIS WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN SE OREGON...BUT
JUST BARELY. THE REAL IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE FELT IN THE LONG
TERM. APART FROM CONVECTION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUE. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER
TOMORROW THROUGH TUE...COMPARED TO TODAY. EVEN WITH THAT...
READINGS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY EXCEPT FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST IS SHOWN TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. THE
ECMWF TIMING IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE WARM-FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY FRIDAY. ABOVE CLIMO POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO AROUND NORMAL
BY FRIDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JDS/JDS



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