Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 010936
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
536 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSIFYING COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TODAY...
PASSING OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE OR TWO
COLD FRONTS MAY CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREAS OF RAIN HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING S OF NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS
ACROSS NJ INTO THE NYC METRO AREA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS SEEN ON
NE 88D REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. PRECIP IS TRENDING NORTHWARD...SO EXPECT
LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP TO PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS BY 6 AM THEN
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE RAIN FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS FURTHER INLAND
THROUGH MIDDAY.

MAIN CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN THE GENERAL N WIND IN PLACE
AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...AS IT APPEARS
SOME COLD AIR DAMMING HAS SET UP. HOWEVER...EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO
A MORE NE DIRECTION AS THE LOW MOVES NE TODAY. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED
INLAND...AS SKIES ACTUALLY CLEARED FOR A TIME ACROSS S NH/N CENTRAL
MA. NOTING TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS SW NH...AND EVEN TO THE
FREEZING MARK FROM KVSF-KCON SO WILL SEE SOME LOWER 30S ACROSS N
HILLSBOROUGH AND CHESHIRE COUNTIES. EXPECT THESE TEMPS TO RISE TO
THE LOWER 40S BY MID MORNING WITH CLOUDS ALREADY MOVING IN AS SEEN
ON LATEST IR SATELLITE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL FIRST OF TWO LOW PRES CENTERS TO MOVE NE TODAY...PASSING SE
OF NANTUCKET BY THIS EVENING. A SECOND LOW THEN DEVELOPS OFF THE NC
COAST BY THE SAME TIME AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE AND STRONG MID LEVEL
JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL REINFORCE
THE AREA OF RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL HIGH WINDS DUE TO TWO STRONG LOW LEVEL
JETS CROSS EASTERN AREAS...THE FIRST APPROACHING LATE TODAY.
INCREASING PRES GRADIENT ALONG WITH H95 JET AT 45-50 KT ALLOWS FOR
VERY GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING TO DEVELOP DURING THIS AFTERNOON AS
LAPSE RATES INCREASE. EXPECT GUSTS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND UP TO 45 KT BY LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
***STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT***

SECOND LOW PRES MOVES NE FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT...PASSING A BIT
FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST LOW.
THIS WILL REINFORCE THE VERY STRONG PRES GRADIENT ALONG WITH ANOTHER
LOW LEVEL JET PASSING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.

CONTINUED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR COASTAL AREAS FROM PLYMOUTH
COUNTY TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. JUST INLAND...ACROSS PORTIONS OF
E MA AND ALL OF RI COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 45-50 MPH SO HAVE ISSUED
WIND ADVISORIES THERE. GRADIENT LOOKS TO CUT BACK FURTHER
INLAND...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS ASPECT.

EXPECT THAT MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WILL
LIKELY HAVE WINDS GUSTING TO AT LEAST 50 MPH AND THAT WITH PARTIALLY
TO FULLY LEAVED TREES... DAMAGE MAY BE DONE TO TREES AND POWER
LINES.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
COULD START TO END LATE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AS THE
SECOND LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY. BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF ENOUGH
COLD AIR STARTS TO WORK IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL ENOUGH FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW. DID NOTE SOME MIX/CHANGE
TO SNOW AS PRECIP TAPER OFF TOWARD DAYBREAK MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE MONADNOCKS AND WORCESTER HILLS...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FLAKES EVEN ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN OF S
CENTRAL NH INTO N CENTRAL AND NE MA TOWARD DAYBREAK. AT THIS
POINT...DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF AN ACCUMULATION...
BUT ANOTHER ASPECT TO MONITOR.

COASTAL FLOODING...PLEASE SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES...AND A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN. THIS CLOSED LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE AND TROUGH TO OUR WEST ALSO MOVE EAST...BUT
THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH TIME WITH A DETACHED
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER. HEIGHTS START THIS
PERIOD BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOSED LOW...THEN CLIMB TO NORMAL
OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE ZONAL FLOW. DEPENDING ON
TIMING...COULD BE COOLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.

THIS SUGGESTS A COLD START TO THE WEEK BUT QUICKLY TRENDING BACK TO
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MID WEEK...THEN COOLING TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TOWARD MID
WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES WITHIN THE
FLOW...AND THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEMS...IS SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED. WILL LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK AT THIS TIME.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MORE WIND ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY GOING
TO BE NEEDED...AS WELL AS CONTINUING ADVISORIES IN OTHER AREAS.
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA MOVE FARTHER
OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL
START SUNDAY NIGHT OVERHEAD...THEN MOVE OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES
BY MONDAY. DRIER AIR MOVES IN AT ALL LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
TUESDAY WITH MILDER AIR MOVING IN...ESPECIALLY ALOFT. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS...SO
EXPECT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TOGETHER WITH THE SUN.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE A LITTLE EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A PAIR OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE FIRST WAVE LIFTS THROUGH QUEBEC WITH LIMITED CURVATURE IN NEW
ENGLAND. THE SECOND WAVE DIGS DEEPER OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THEN
SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND 24-36 HOURS LATER THAN THE FIRST. AS THE
UPPER FLOW IS ROUGHLY ZONAL...EXACT TIMING OF THE TWO PASSAGES IS
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE FIRST WAVE DIRECTED THROUGH CANADA AND THE UPPER FLOW
REMAINING SOUTHWEST...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE A SURFACE FRONT STALLS
OVER OR NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND DEEPER WAVE TURNS THE
UPPER FLOW NORTHWEST AND SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
COLDER AIR THEN FLOWING IN. WE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FIRST WAVE AND FRONT.
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY WITH THE SECOND WAVE
AND FRONT. TIMING ON THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE SOMEWHAT WITH
SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET.

TODAY...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR-IFR FROM S-N DURING THE
DAY...REACHING SW NH/N CENTRAL AND NW MA BY MID MORNING. VSBYS WILL
TAKE LONGER TO LOWER...BUT WILL DO SO DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. N-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35-45 KT ALONG THE E COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
SOMEWHAT LOWER ON THE S COAST.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED WITH CIGS LOWERING TO IFR-LIFR
ACROSS E AND CENTRAL MA/RI BY MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR-IFR FURTHER W.
EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 40-50 KT ALONG THE COAST WITH 30-
35 KT GUSTS JUST INLAND....AND OCCASIONALLY UP TO 25-35 KT ACROSS CT
VALLEY INTO CENTRAL AREAS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 KT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING OF ONSET OF RAIN AND HIGHER WINDS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING OF ONSET OF RAIN AND HIGHER WINDS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS START TO
RISE FROM WEST TO EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...PEAKING
IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE EASTERN
TERMINALS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS
BUT STILL GUSTING UP TO 35 TO 45 KTS PEAKING MORE ON SUNDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING MOST LOCATIONS AND
CONTINUING ON THE EAST COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS
MONDAY WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
IN SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM FOR MARINERS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND***

TODAY AND TONIGHT...N-NE WIND INCREASE DURING THE DAY...WITH GUSTS
REACHING 40-45 KT BY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS
WILL BUILD ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS.

THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SECOND LOW PRES PASSES
JUST SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. EXPECT A MORE NORTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT...GUSTING UP TO 50 KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS FROM CAPE ANN TO
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. WITH THE HIGH GUSTS AND
STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILDS TONIGHT WITH
THESE HIGH WINDS...UPWARDS TO 20-25 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...
POSSIBLY REACHING THE WATERS E OF THE NATIONAL SEASHORE.

STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS FROM CAPE COD
BAY NORTHWARD AND EXTENDED THE STORMS TO INCLUDE NANTUCKET SOUND AND
S OF THE ISLANDS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REMAINING
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...VERY HIGH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS. NORTHWEST GALES LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS ALL MA AND RI
COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS THEN DIMINISH BUT REMAIN 25 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH
MONDAY. SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LINGER 5 TO 10 FEET THROUGH
MONDAY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE CONTINUED THE COASTAL FLOODING WATCH FOR THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES OF THIS EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR EAST COASTAL
MA. WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO N...THE N FACING PORTIONS OF NANTUCKET
AND CAPE COD. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED POCKETS REACHING MODERATE LEVELS.
BEACH EROSION IS ALSO A CONCERN.

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS MAY RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 20-25 OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A 2 TO 2.5 FOOT STORM SURGE ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
WAVE ACTION. BASED ON THE LATEST DATA...WE ARE MOST CONCERNED
ABOUT THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE WINDS APPEAR STRONGEST
AT THAT TIME WITH A LITTLE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WIND.

THE HIGHEST RISK AREAS APPEAR TO BE HULL AND SCITUATE. THERE IS
ALSO A CONCERN FOR THE TYPICAL HOT SPOTS...SUCH AS SALISBURY AND
PLUM ISLAND WHICH ARE VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEACH EROSION.
FINALLY...WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON NANTUCKET HARBOR AS
WELL AS THE NORTH FACING BEACHES OF CAPE COD BAY AS WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY AND REMAIN STRONG TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME ISSUES IN
THOSE AREAS AS WELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MAZ006-007-013>018-020.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR MAZ019-021>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ232-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ233>237-256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ230.
     STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ231-250-251-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...EVT



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