Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 271711
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
111 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure aloft will be over the North Country
today and early tonight, with high temperatures today in the 70s
to around 80 from western Vermont to northern New York. High
temperatures will be mainly in the 60s to lower 70s over eastern
and northeast Vermont today. A frontal system will move into
the region after midnight tonight bringing a a chance of rain
showers to the region and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
There will be a chance of showers Friday morning, but skies will
become mostly sunny by Friday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 103 PM EDT Thursday...Minor tweak to cloud cover grids
across eastern/central cwa and associated temps. Vis satl pic
shows mostly cloudy skies continue eastern cwa with temps mainly
in the 60s...while cpv is on the edge with clear skies west and
clouds east...with temps warming into the l/m 70s as of 1 PM.
Western cwa is experiencing mostly sunny skies with some high
clouds moving in later this aftn with temps warming mainly into
the 70s. Still anticipating highs ranging from the m/u 60s east
to upper 70s/lower 80s west. Overall weather elements look good
in current forecast.

Previous discussion from 424 AM EDT Thursday...An upper ridge
will be over the region today, with skies becoming partly to
mostly sunny. However, a low level temperature inversion over
eastern and northeast Vermont will keep low clouds in there
through this morning before skies become partly sunny this
afternoon. Areas of fog over the Adirondacks and the Saint
Lawrence valley early this morning will burn off later this
morning, with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny with highs
in the 70s to lower 80s expected from the Champlain valley
westward to the Saint Lawrence valley. Clouds east of the
western slopes of the Green mountains will keep temperatures
cooler there today with highs mainly in the 60s to lower 70s.

Tonight, a weakening frontal system will approach the region
from the eastern Great Lakes and will bring rain showers to the
North country after midnight tonight. Have also continued to
mentioned a slight chance of thunderstorms late tonight, as
Showalter indexes slightly negative, suggesting some elevated
convection possible. Lows will be mainly in the 50s tonight.

Showers to linger into early Friday morning, with skies becoming
mostly sunny by Friday afternoon. High on Friday will be in the
upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 520 AM EDT Thursday...Clouds increase Friday night with
increasing chance of showers as bits of energy approach during
the short term. North Country remains in WSW to ESE flow at
500mb with Bermuda high in place and northerly trough trekking
across Hudsons Bay and extending southward towards the Great
Lakes. Not a whole lot of dynamics or moisture associated with
energy moving over the northeast. Strong upper level jet
(120-140kts at 250mb) looks to remain to our north but could
help provide lift for some showers late Friday night into
Saturday.

Canadian high pressure at the surface along with building ridge
axis aloft expected to provide dry Saturday afternoon and night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 520 AM EDT Thursday...Active pattern continues to be the
trend in the long term.

High pressure over the North Country will be interrupted by
Sunday afternoon as warm front brings clouds to the region and
increasing chance for showers...mainly late in the day for
portions of Northern NY. Associated closed surface low will
continue to strengthen as it heads towards the central Great
Lakes. Warm front could continue to bring showers Sunday night
into the first half of Monday, but models differ on exact
location of where the warm front sets up...remaining north of
the international border or over northern portions of the
forecast area. Either way, continued WAA in southerly flow will
result in moist and warm conditions. Both GFS and ECMWF show a
dry slot may move into the region Monday afternoon allowing some
sunshine from breaks in clouds to warm temperatures into the
70s. Southerly jet of 40-50kts at 850mb develops resulting in
breezy conditions across the Champlain Valley at least.

Front still looks to moves from west to east across the North
Country Monday night into early Tuesday. Slight chance of
thunderstorms still possible with weak instability, but
overnight timing not as favorable. Widespread rain of 0.5-1"
should not cause any significant hydro problems on rivers.

Main 500mb trough passes over the region Tuesday, keeping low
level moisture and potential for showers. Developing shortwave
around the Great Lakes region will keep chance for showers
through the end of the period as we remain under westerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Vis satl continues to show low clouds and
mvfr cigs at mpv/rut this afternoon...thinking these cigs will
lift to vfr by 20z...with the rest of the taf sites experiencing
vfr conditions. Tonight...soundings show low level southeast
flow will advect moisture back into MPV with cigs trending from
vfr to mvfr to ifr after 06z. Meanwhile...mid/upper level clouds
increase from sw to ne ahead of boundary this evening...with a
period of light rain showers between 06z-12z. A brief period of
mvfr cigs/vis possible with fropa overnight...along with a
rumble of thunder at slk/mss. Otherwise...breezy south winds at
10 to 20 knots with local terrain impacts will shift to the
southwest/west by Friday morning...with vfr conditions
prevailing.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Breezy. Slight Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/Taber
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...Taber



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