Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
FXUS61 KBTV 061520
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1020 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016
Cloudy skies this morning with some breaks in the clouds
possible this afternoon. Next weather system arrives early
Wednesday Morning and brings another round of light accumulating
snow during the morning commute. Additional chances for snow
showers are in the forecast for Thursday into Friday as colder
air begins to moves in to the region.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1011 AM EST Tuesday...main item for the mid-morning update
was to try to tackle the stubborn low level clouds. we`ve got
shallow moisture, primarily below 3500 feet (so some beautiful
scenes from the summits looking out over the "undercast") that
is stuck below a fairly strong inversion. Given the limited
amount of atmospheric mixing, the eroding of the clouds via the
dry air higher aloft is going to be painfully slow. Looks like
clouds will linger longest in the Champlain Valley and in parts
of the St Lawrence Valley. One of those cases where the higher
elevations are seeing the sunshine first. Thus have pushed back
the partial clearing into mid-afternoon for those areas not
already seeing some sun. Also reduced the high temperatures a
few degrees, primarily in the Champlain Valley due to those
pesky low clouds.
rest of the discussion from earlier follows below...
Tonight we will have our next system approaching from the
Southwest. This is another warm front with some decent shortwave
energy. It should stay cold enough across our area to mainly
just see snow with this feature. Overnight minimum temperatures
will be around the mid 20s to around 30. Light snow will move
into our forecast area from the Southwest during the second half
of the overnight hours. Have mainly high chance to low likely
pops and have also gone with mention of light snow. This feature
will weaken over time as it tracks Northeastward. Best
shortwave energy will exit off the Mid Atlantic coast. Expect
just minor snow accumulations with this event, generally just
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 420 AM EST Tuesday...A weak frontal system moves through
the region Wednesday morning with some light snow. QPF amounts
are lighter than on Monday`s snow event, but still timing will
again be during the Wednesday morning commute, so some slippery
conditions will be possible on any untreated road surfaces.
Expecting precipitation will wind down and come mostly to an end
by midday on Wednesday. Thus, have lowered pops for Wednesday
afternoon. Expecting a mainly cloudy but dry night on Wednesday
night. On Thursday, a cold front will move south from Canada and
bring a chance for more rain and snow showers.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 420 AM EST Tuesday...Much colder air will be moving into
the region from Thursday night through this weekend, with high
temperatures only in the 20s Saturday and Sunday.Expecting a
chance of snow showers from Thursday night through Friday night.
A ridge of high pressure will build into the region for Saturday
and Saturday night, with fair and dry weather expected. A warm
front will approach the region by Sunday afternoon, so have gone
with a chance of light snow Sunday afternoon. Expecting light
snow to continue into Sunday night across the north country.
ECMWF and GFS models showing some differences on Monday, with
the GFS having a low over Canada on Monday, while the ECMWF
model has some waves of low pressure moving northeast across
southern New England. However, both models are indicating
precipitation across the region on Monday, so have a chance a
chance for rain or snow on Monday.
.AVIATION /15Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Currently MVFR ceilings at all TAF sites
with the exception of Rutland which is VFR. Conditions will
improve through the daytime hours today, perhaps some sunshine
at RUT and MPV especially. Clouds will then move back into the
region after 00z ahead of next approaching weak system which
will bring some snow showers after 06z. Winds will generally be
under 10 kts through the period.
Outlook 12z Wednesday through Saturday... Another warm front
produces another round of widespread light snow across our
region on Wed. Similar to Monday`s event thinking a period of
ifr/lifr likely between 12z-18z Weds across our taf sites with
vis below 2sm and cigs between 500 feet and 2000 feet. An arctic
boundary will produce more scattered snow showers and potential
snow squalls on Thursday into Friday with brief periods of ifr
conditions possible. Improving conditions with mvfr valleys and
ifr/mvfr in scattered snow showers persist on Saturday.