Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 161443
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
943 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will bring light to moderate snow, warmer
temperatures, and increased clouds to the North Country today through
Wednesday. Once the system departs, a noticeable warming trend
will kick off going into the weekend. There will be chances for
some light precipitation during this timeframe as some weak
upper disturbances move through.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 943 AM EST Tuesday...Overall forecast in good shape with
first wave of warm air advection precipitation weakening across
the area. There have been some light accumulations with the warm
air advection...but next best chance for more widespread snow
will come later today and especially tonight through Wednesday
morning. Going forecast has this covered well with just some
minor tweaks to temperatures as it looks like we may not warm up
as much as previously thought. Lowered high temperatures today
by a degree or two.

Previous Discussion...
Light warm air advection snow is
spreading northeastward into New England in advance of a
weakening low over southern Ontario/Lake Huron. Satellite
imagery shows mid to upper level clouds have spread over the
entire forecast area ahead of the system, preventing additional
radiational cooling overnight. Temperatures throughout the
forecast area are climbing in the overnight hours in response to
warm air advection and the insulating cloud cover. The light
snow will continue through the mid morning hours today before
tapering off through the early afternoon as the better forcing
aloft moves out of the area. By mid to late afternoon, a second
wave of snow will begin as heights fall aloft ahead of a
shearing upper level trough. This second wave of snow will have
better support in the low to mid levels provided by a developing
coastal low that will track inside of the 40N 70W benchmark
Wednesday. Southern and eastern Vermont will see some influx of
Atlantic moisture as southwesterly flow briefly takes on more of
a southerly/southeasterly component ahead of the approaching
low.

Overall, expect to receive generally 3 to 5 inches of snowfall
out of the system tonight through Wednesday in southern and
eastern Vermont.  Northern New York and northern Vermont will
pick up lighter amounts (generally up to 3 inches) as the best
moisture transport and lift associated with the surface cyclone
will stay further south and east.

As the surface low tracks further northeast up the New England
coast, flow will quickly switch back to westerly and the snow
will end by Wednesday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 408 AM EST Tuesday...The short-term period will be
relatively quiet across the North Country. As surface low
pressure exits across the Bay of Fundy/New Brunswick Wednesday
night, a narrow ridge of high pressure is expected to build ewd
across central NY into VT. Will see any lingering snow
showers/flurries ending across ern VT early Wednesday night.
Meanwhile, developing WSW sfc-850mb flow on the nrn periphery of
the sfc ridge may be sufficient to generate a few lake
effect/upslope snow showers into srn St. Lawrence County and
into the nrn Adirondacks later Wednesday night into Thursday,
consistent with most of the very high resolution NWP guidance.
Thereafter, another weak northern stream shortwave trough with
limited moisture will track from the northern Great Lakes
quickly ewd across NY/Northern New England during Thursday
night. This will bring continued chances for snow showers,
mainly across the nrn Adirondacks and nrn Green Mtns. Maximum
PoPs during the period are around 40 percent, and any snowfall
accumulation from above mentioned factors will be
minimal...generally a coating to an inch in spots. Will begin to
see a gradual moderation in temperatures, starting with lows
8-15F Wednesday night, followed by highs in the 23-27F range for
Thursday, and into the upr teens to lower 20s for lows Thursday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 408 AM EST Tuesday...The 00Z NWP guidance suite continues
with the overall theme of a moderating temperature trend
through the forecast period, with building mid-level heights
across the ern seaboard. A developing mid- level closed low
across the central Plains and associated surface frontal system
will begin to develop during the day Sunday. Based on current
indications, it appears temperatures will moderate into the mid
40s for Saturday/Sunday/Monday. Sfc warm frontal structure in
vicinity of the region may result in scattered rain showers or
a chance of mixed sleet/freezing rain across sheltered valleys
of ern VT during the day Sunday, followed by better surge of
south winds and emergence into the warm sector as sfc low is
expected to pass across the Great Lakes and through sern Ontario
late Sunday night into Monday. Should see a period of moderate
rainfall as trailing cold front sweeps across the region later
Monday into Monday night. Both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF are
consistent in overall scenario. Given presence of lingering ice
jams in spots, may see renewed hydro concerns heading into early
next week, though temperatures are not expected to get as warm
and rainfall amts are not expected to be as heavy as what
occurred on Friday 1/12. We`ll continue to monitor trends with
the expected warmup and potential moderate precipitation for
Sunday/Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions with
light snow will generally improve to MVFR/low VFR conditions as
snow tapers off between 13Z and 15Z. Next wave of heavier snow
will start at RUT around 19Z, then spread to MPV/BTV/PBG between
00Z and 02Z. With this wave of heavier snow, expect low IFR
visibilities through end of TAF period at RUT/MPV with IFR to
MVFR visibilities at PBG/BTV. Winds will generally be light
from the south throughout the period.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for
     VTZ010>012-019.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSD
NEAR TERM...Evenson/RSD
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...RSD


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