Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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355
FXUS61 KBTV 241102
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
702 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather is expected across the North Country today with
periods of moderate to heavy rain across northern New York this
morning and afternoon and then late this afternoon and tonight
across Vermont. In addition...many locations across the area
will see wind gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range with isolated
gusts to 50 mph. Winds and rain will taper off later tonight.
Above normal temperatures are expected today as well as
Wednesday. Precipitation will linger over Vermont on Wednesday
with dry weather expected for northern New York.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 650 AM EDT Tuesday...Going forecast in good shape with
precipitation finally getting into parts of the Saint Lawrence
Valley. Other than a few tweaks to match current conditions no
other big changes needed at this time with going forecast on
track for above normal temperatures over the area today along
with increasing clouds...gusty winds...and increasing
precipitation chances this morning and afternoon.

Previous Discussion...
Wind and heavy rain will still be the main weather impacts
today and tonight. Bottom line from the northern Adirondacks
eastward across the remainder of the area we will see wind gusts
in the 35 to 45 mph range with isolated wind gusts to 50 mph.
Strongest winds will be over the northern and western sections
of the Adirondacks this morning and then the stronger winds will
spread into the remainder of the area this afternoon...especially
over the northern third of Vermont. Would expect the potential
for power outages will exist and thus will issue a special
weather statement highlighting the winds today. With respect to
the rain...main precipitation is across western New York and
central Pennsylvania early this morning but will be moving into
northern New York as the morning wears on. Still looking at
heavier rain with deep moisture moving up into the region and
orientation of the precipitation will be in a south to north
band to promote training and to limit the eastward progression.
Eventually the band shifts into Vermont later this afternoon and
tonight with just some scattered showers ahead of the band this
morning and afternoon. Will continue the idea of rain being
heavy at times. Many areas will see precipitation amounts in the
0.75 inch to 1.50 inch range with amounts up to 2 inches over
eastern Vermont and only around a half inch across the Saint
Lawrence Valley. Highs today will be in the upper 60s to lower
70s.

As mentioned above...band of moderate to heavy rain will mainly
be over Vermont tonight and bulk of the precipitation should
exit the state toward morning on Wednesday. Dry slot moves up
into northern New York with no precipitation expected and lows
dropping into the mid 40s to lower 50s. From the Champlain
Valley eastward lows will generally be in the 50s to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 455 AM EDT Tuesday...Main band of steadier precipitation
will be just east of the area on Wednesday with south to
southwest flow aloft continuing over the area. Overall most of
the area will remain dry with highs generally in the upper 50s
to mid 60s. Wednesday night the upper flow backs as upper trough
axis moves toward the region. This will likely help push some
precipitation back into Vermont Wednesday night. And then as the
upper trough moves over the area on Thursday...additional
showers are expected over much of the area. Cooler temperatures
are expected on Thursday with highs generally in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Tuesday...Lingering showers/light rain will
then slowly exit eastern VT Thursday night as frontal wave pulls
through Maine to north of Quebec City by sunrise Friday.
Additional QPF of a tenth to a quarter inch will be possible in
these areas with mainly dry conditions across northern New York
as low temperatures range from the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Dry weather returns area-wide by Friday into Sunday morning as
expansive high pressure builds back across the eastern quarter
of the nation and into the western Atlantic waters. Partly
cloudy skies should be the general rule with best probabilities
of full sunshine occurring Friday afternoon. Temperatures will
remain mild, though not to the extent of our recent near-record
warmth as highs generally range from 56 to 64 and overnight
lows hold mainly in the 40s.

This morning`s global models continue to suggest that our next
system in the pipeline will arrive by later Sunday into Monday
as a slow moving frontal zone interacts with another deep
subtropical moisture plume bringing widespread rainfall,
possibly heavy, to the area. The 00Z ECMWF deterministic run
and corresponding Euro MOS guidance was unavailable for this
package, though leaned toward it`s 10/23/12Z idea showing a
slightly slower arrival of the main precipitation shield given
the meridional nature of the mean synoptic flow. Temperatures
will cool slightly given clouds and rainfall - mainly mid 50s to
lower 60s for highs and overnight lows Sunday night in the 40s.
Similar to today`s system, gusty south winds look probable once
again at some point Sunday afternoon/night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will continue overall
across the region through 15Z Tuesday, with the exception being
KMPV/KRUT where marine MVFR stratus advecting northward will
build into eastern Vermont. After 15Z, lowering cigs shift into
portions of northern New York with band of heavier showers
shifting through KMSS from 14-17Z and KSLK from 15-19Z before
shifting east. This band will continue to slowly advance
eastward into the early evening hours reaching KPBG/KBTV mainly
after 19Z and KMPV/KRUT by 22Z or so. Rain will be quite heavy
at times within this band with MVFR cigs and MVFR/brief IFR
visibilities. Isolated thunder is also possible within the band
but confidence remains low and have left out of the forecast at
this point. Winds will continue to be very gusty south to
southeasterly from 12 to 22 kt and gusts from 25 to 40 kts ahead
of the band of heavier showers, especially east of KMSS in the
12-20Z time frame. This will create enhanced low level
turbulence on arrivals and departures, though runway-aligned
flow should preclude any crosswind threat. After 00Z winds abate
to light southerly as heavier rainfall shifts east, exiting
eastern terminals in the 03-06Z time frame as MVFR/occnl IFR
cigs slowly improve in this area.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A lake wind advisory remains in effect today. South winds are
expected to be in the 15 to 25 knot range through mid-morning
before increasing into the 25 to 35 knot range. This will allow
for waves to build into the 4 to 6 foot range creating rather
choppy conditions and difficult boating conditions for smaller
craft. The stronger winds and higher waves continue into the
evening hours before tapering off after midnight.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
MPV is not transmitting due to a communications outage. FAA is
aware of the problem. We do not have an estimated return to
service.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...Evenson
EQUIPMENT...BTV



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