Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 302046
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR
VERMONT EARLY TONIGHT FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WIND CHILL
WARNING AND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY.

MAINLY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AT
THIS TIME...WHILE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO REGION.
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS JUST ABOUT WASHED OUT OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING JUST OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...ARCTIC FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. TEMPS FALLING THROUGH TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST VERMONT...AND THIS TREND
OF FALLING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING.
ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND DEPARTURE OF SNOW DELAYED A BIT OVER
EASTERN ZONES AS UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT OVER NEW
ENGLAND...DELAYING EXIT OF THE COASTAL LOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW AT
THIS TIME EXISTS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ON THE VERMONT
SIDE...AS FLOW IS VERY BLOCKED AS EVIDENCED BY LOW FROUDE
NUMBERS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN
DIMINISH AS MOISTURE DECREASES OVERNIGHT. ALSO EXPECT PERIODS OF
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS REST OF VERMONT...ESPECIALLY
UPSLOPE FAVORED NORTHERN AREAS...THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES. TOTAL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 4 TO 6 INCHES...BUT THERE WILL BE
HIGHER OUTLIERS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN VERMONT. ACCUMULATING SNOWS
PRETTY MUCH OVER WITH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT THREAT OF
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.
TEAMS DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT LOWS
WILL BE CLOSER TO ZERO FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. WIND CHILLS
OVERNIGHT DROPPING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 35 BELOW...WITH LOWEST VALUES
IN ADIRONDACKS WHERE WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING WITH RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND
LOWER TEENS SOUTH WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT...OTHERWISE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
WAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL LIE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND
BRINGS PERIODIC MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO BTV...MPV AND RUT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT AFTER ABOUT 12Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES


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