Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 281350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
950 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY BRINGING FALL-LIKE STRATOCUMULUS TO THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HIGHS 65 TO 75 FOR MOST TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 745 AM THURSDAY...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC SWD
ACROSS EASTERN VT AND NH AT 11Z WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD THIS
MORNING. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND UPSTREAM
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
NWLY WINDS ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING. NW
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS 14-22Z. SHOULD
GENERALLY SEE DEW POINTS FALLING THRU THE 50S AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN FROM THE NW AS WELL. THE NAM AND LOCAL BTV 4KM AND 12KM WRF
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR N-CENTRAL INTO
NERN VT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER VORT AND UPPER LEVEL
JET...WHICH PASSES THRU THIS AFTERNOON. CARRIED A LIMITED 20 POP
ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. A
TREND TOWARD PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASED MIXING. OUTSIDE OF NRN GREENS INTO NERN VT...MOST
SECTIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO +6 TO +7C
THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS
NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE NOCTURNAL FOG
04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW READINGS 38-39F
IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS (INCLUDING KSLK).

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH)
WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR
DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z BEFORE SKIES BECOME CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...12Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR.
LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH





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