Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 220906
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
406 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Much above normal temperatures continue into the weekend with
scattered showers and areas of fog possible...especially tonight
into Thursday. A strong cold front will produce gusty winds and a
line of showers on Saturday afternoon and evening...with much cooler
temperatures by Sunday. The combination of snow melt and
precipitation will result in localized ice jam threat with the
potential for isolated low lying flooding as we head into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 401 AM EST Wednesday...Fast westerly flow aloft continues
today...while low level winds are from the south/southwest
resulting in moisture and warm air advection. Have noted plenty
of low clouds and fog upstream associated with higher moisture
content and warm air moving over cold snow pack...especially MI.
Soundings indicating the threat for fog/br increases by
tonight...especially deeper/protected mountain valleys and this
trend may continue into Thursday. Progged 850mb temps warm
between 2-4c today...but with all the clouds mixing maybe
limited...so will keep temps mid 40s to lower 50s most
locations. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out over the
terrain...but any precip will be light.

Tonight...the potential for fog/br increases as temps cool back into
the 30s and lower 40s...but surface dewpoints continue to increase
on southerly winds. Will continue to mention patchy to areas of
fog/br...given sounding profiles...with mostly likely locations the
SLV/northern Dacks and parts of central/northern VT valleys.

Thursday...temps become very tricky as we continue to be under
moderate low level warm air advection on gusty south/southwest
winds. However...these winds continue to advect higher moisture into
our region with surface dwpts in the upper 30s to mid
40s...supporting areas of low clouds and fog...which may limit
surface heating. Area soundings show lots of moisture between
surface and 850mb on Thursday...associated with strong moisture
advection on 925mb to 850mb winds of 35 to 45 knots. Soundings
support localized wind gusts btwn 30 and 35 knots in the
SLV...dacks and parts of the CPV on Thursday afternoon. Areas of
drizzle will be possible in the mountains on Thursday. For temps
will fall high resolution 2m temps...which support mid 40s mountain
valleys to l/m 50s warmer valley locations. A weak surface boundary
along with increasing mid level moisture will increase the threat
for showers on Thursday afternoon...as pws surge between 0.75 and
0.95. Have mention chance to low likely pops...but best forcing
associated with 5h vort and better moisture looks to pass just to
our north. QPF will be <0.10.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EST Tuesday...Warming trend begins on Wednesday
and continues into Thursday. Highs on Wednesday will be in the
40s and in the upper 40s to mid 50s on Thursday. Not really
looking for any precipitation on Wednesday...but shortwave
trough moving across eastern Canada on Thursday will bring a
chance of showers to the area...but precipitation amounts will
generally be less than a quarter inch. Of note will be the fact
that overnight lows will stay above freezing over much of the
area Wednesday night and Thursday night. This will contribute to
a favorable situation for ice breakup in the rivers that still
have ice and by Thursday we should see an increase in the
potential for ice jams...especially over the northern third of
Vermont and far northeast New York.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EST Tuesday...Above normal temperatures will
continue on Friday with highs in the 40s to around 50 and well
into the 50s on Saturday as low and mid level clouds becomes
more south and southwest. This is in response to a more
noticeable upper trough moving into the region on Saturday.
Still looking at widespread rain developing on Saturday and
Saturday night. At this time looking at anywhere from a half
inch to one inch of rain. This combined with the above normal
temperatures should continue to increase the potential for ice
jams and flooding. Situation will be closely monitored as
precipitable water values are anomalously high for this time of
year which could contribute to even more precipitation. Upper
trough moves east of the region on Sunday and quieter weather
returns to the region with highs generally in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 06z Thursday...VFR conditions continue as the weak
shortwave trough pushes across the area. Light drizzle may
continue over the next couple of hours by dry low levels will
prevent any significant precip from reaching the ground. The
models have been consistent with the potential for some MVFR
clouds through the morning hours however the source region for
our airmass doesn`t support this so I`ve opted to hover right on
the border with clouds in the 3000-4000ft elevation. Winds will
continue to be generally south to southwesterly with gusty
winds possible at BTV only due to funneling of the Champlain
Valley. Tomorrow evening with warm dew points and moisture
available from the melting snowpack the potential will exist for
some light ground fog to develop. Winds and cloud cover will be
the limiting factor in how much fog develops and thus visibility
restrictions.

Outlook 06z Wednesday through Sunday...
Thursday...VFR/MVFR with pockets of MVFR/IFR in our mountains
sites.

Friday - Saturday...A warm front lifting from southwest to
northeast on Friday will produce additional showers along with
some enhanced southerly winds. The turning wind profiles and
rapid increase in speed with height will cause some areas of
turbulence and shear on Friday Night into Saturday. Widespread
gusty southerly winds likely on Saturday with areas of rain
showers...producing localized mvfr/ifr cigs/vis in the heavier
elements.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR conditions possible, especially in mountains
snow showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 400 aM EST Wednesday...Above normal temperatures will
continue to melt a significant amount of snow this week into the
upcoming weekend. This runoff will cause rises on local
waterways with an increasing threat for localized ice jam
flooding...especially across northern NY and central and
northern VT rivers. A widespread rainfall on Saturday will
produce additional hydro concerns over the weekend for the
potential of minor main stem river flooding.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Deal/KGM
HYDROLOGY...Taber


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