Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 250207
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1007 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1006 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE TO
OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE IN SHORT ORDER
AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. SHOWERS INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH CLOUDS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 348 PM SUNDAY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH
OF A STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS MORNING...WITH REST OF REGION REMAINING DRY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS WHERE A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE
READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RISK OF SHOWERS DECREASES WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN
A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH GENERALLY SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING - WHICH ARE LOCALLY
GUSTING TO 26 KTS AT KMSS - WILL TEND TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS AFTER
SUNSET AS LOW-LEVELS BECOME MORE STABLE. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING BKN-OVC050-090 CONDITIONS TO THE
TAF SITES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK MID TO LATE MORNING...AND POSSIBLE PBG AND VT
TAF LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD SEE PREVAILING VFR CIGS/VSBY FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH 5-10 KTS IN THE
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/KGM


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