Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 191003
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
303 AM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Tue...

Light snow was ongoing across much of the area this morning as
energy and moisture streamed in from the southwest as an upper
level trough dug over the Northern Rockies. Periods of light snow
will continue over the area today as vort maxes move through the
region. Outside of eastern areas, most places should see an inch
or less of additional snow accumulation today, as snow ratios
will remain low. Have gone ahead and cancelled the Winter Storm
Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories for our central and western
zones, and kept the Winter Weather Advisory for Powder River and
Carter counties going through the evening. 1 to 3 inches of
additional snow accumulations are expected in these areas. Have
gone ahead and hoisted Wind Chill Advisories for the Judith Gap
and Livingston areas through morning, with winds causing wind
chills to range from 20 to 30 below zero. Temperatures will
struggle to make it above zero for many areas today.

Precipitation will slide east tonight as the upper trough moves
overhead and a cold surface high moves over the area. With
decreasing cloud cover and ample snow cover, temperatures will
bottom out in the teens below zero tonight, with some areas closer
to twenty below zero. Low temperature records are possible at
Livingston, Billings, and Sheridan. Drier conditions are expected
for Tuesday with highs in the single digits above zero. A shortwave
moves into northern Montana late Tuesday night with a few snow
showers possible over the western mountains. Low temperatures
Tuesday night will range from the single digits below zero west,
to the teens below zero across central and eastern areas. STP

.LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...

A series of reinforcing western U.S. trofs will keep temperatures
from rising very quickly through the week. Guidance keeps
widespread sub zero low temperatures through at least Friday morning
and maybe into Saturday morning if the ECMWF is correct. Highs
will make it back to the 20s by Friday with lower 30s by Saturday
as downslope winds kick in ahead of a stronger upper disturbance
for Sunday/Monday.

Moisture advection into the western mountains looks good through
the period with good chances for additional snow into the Cooke
City area. But models are advertising mainly dry conditions over
the lower elevations until Sunday/Monday time frame. Can`t rule
out a few light snow showers mixed in at times through the week
but nothing impactful. Chambers

&&

.AVIATION...

Widespread IFR conditions expected through at least early
afternoon with light snow continuing. Local LIFR or lower
conditions possible in upslope favored areas where a period of
morning fog may develop, including KBIL. Conditions will improve
from northwest to southeast starting this afternoon as the storm
system shifts southeast of the area. May be mid day Tuesday before
widespread VFR conditions are in place. Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 001 917/006 910/014 907/016 905/024 005/031 014/030
    6/S 21/B    10/B    01/U    11/U    12/J    22/J
LVM 002 917/010 906/018 901/021 001/028 011/032 015/031
    5/S 21/U    12/J    11/B    11/B    13/J    43/J
HDN 003 919/008 915/013 910/014 910/023 001/030 010/029
    6/S 21/B    10/B    00/U    11/B    01/B    22/J
MLS 001 913/005 916/008 912/008 910/015 000/023 005/022
    6/S 31/B    00/B    00/U    10/B    01/B    12/J
4BQ 003 914/005 917/012 909/012 907/020 001/026 009/027
    9/S 41/B    00/B    01/U    11/B    01/B    11/B
BHK 003 912/004 914/010 911/012 907/015 003/024 007/024
    8/S 41/B    00/U    00/U    10/B    01/B    11/N
SHR 001 918/006 917/015 909/017 906/025 002/030 009/030
    8/S 31/B    10/B    01/B    11/B    01/B    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 11 PM MST this
      evening FOR ZONES 36-37.
     Wind Chill Advisory in effect until 11 AM MST this morning
      FOR ZONES 63-65.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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