Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
FXUS65 KBYZ 280227
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...Updated
National Weather Service BILLINGS MT
827 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016
No major changes made to the update this evening.
Severe weather dominated the CWA this evening, with several
discrete supercells forming over the central and eastern zones.
Several warnings were issued, with hail being the main impact.
Hail sizes on the order of golf ball and slightly larger were
reported with several of the storms.
For the rest of the evening and night there may be some more
thunderstorm activity, mainly across the eastern zones. The hail
threat should diminish overnight. High resolution models have
done well with the type of storms, but not as well with the
.SHORT TERM...valid for Thu and Fri...
Convection developing north and west of Billings with a
strong cell southeast of Roundup. MUCapes were around 1000j/kg
with shear of around 35kts. A disturbance was working over into
central Montana at the moment and this will keep development going
through the evening. Position of the wave and jet placement seems
to focus the attention more over the northern half of the forecast
area, at least early on, then the last couple of nights. A
secondary shortwave works into the west by mid evening and this
may help the farther west get going then. Forcing does not look
overly strong but enough cape and shear for at least strong storms
with possibly an isolated severe storm. Activity looks to go
through the night over the east again as the shortwave doesn`t
clear the area until Thursday morning.
Thursday will be a similar day with more shortwave influx. Cape
looks a little less with similar shear. Would expect scattered
storms again, with the possibility of a severe storm. Precipitable
water values near an inch would indicate the possibility of
locally heavy rain, although there were some indications of drier
mid level air working in from the northwest. Temperatures will be
below seasonal values with low level easterly flow. The shortwave
responsible for convection is progged to swing out of the area
during the evening time, so looks to be an earlier end time than
the last few nights. TWH
Friday, will be a transition day. Temperatures will begin to warm
up. With some lingering energy and moisture, have continued PoPs
over the mountains and across the eastern zones. Reimer
.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...
Did not make many changes to the extended forecast. A ridge will
build into the northern Rockies on Saturday. This will let
temperatures continue to climb, and keep much of the area dry.
Going into Sunday, a surface low will develop over eastern Montana
with an upper level low over British Columbia. Tempeatures will be
in the mid 90s on Sunday, with relative humidity values dropping
into the teens. Winds at the moment do not look strong enough to
need a fire weather highlight, but with the low humidity and high
heat fire weather concerns will still be high. Monday will have a
slight chance for some showers and thunderstorms, with some
lingering energy. Tuesday the next system comes through which will
bring a bit better chance as another low crosses the the area.
A disturbance moving into Montana has generated showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Some of the storms have
been strong to severe with large hail and strong winds. Local
MVFR to IFR conditions can be expected, along with occasional
mountain obscurations in the heavier storms. The showers and
thunderstorms will gradually spread east through the night as the
disturbance continues to track through Montana. The threat for
large hail and damaging winds will diminish this
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
BIL 061/083 059/089 062/096 066/095 062/090 060/091 060/086
43/T 31/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 21/B
LVM 053/085 052/090 054/094 058/093 052/090 051/091 051/085
43/T 31/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 21/B
HDN 060/085 057/090 059/097 064/097 061/091 059/093 058/088
43/T 31/U 11/U 12/T 21/B 11/B 11/B
MLS 062/083 060/088 062/096 068/097 065/092 062/094 062/088
34/T 41/U 10/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 21/B
4BQ 061/085 058/089 061/095 068/098 065/093 062/094 062/089
44/T 41/U 11/U 12/T 21/B 12/T 22/T
BHK 058/079 055/083 057/091 063/095 063/089 058/090 059/085
45/T 52/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
SHR 057/085 053/089 056/095 060/095 059/092 056/093 056/088
44/T 42/T 11/U 22/T 22/T 22/T 21/B