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000
FXUS61 KCAR 042319
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
619 PM EST WED DEC 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE WELL OF NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
BY FRIDAY MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
618 PM UPDATE...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND
THE LOW IN THE MARITIMES TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN PARTS OF
THE ST JOHN VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING. CALLS TO WEATHER SPOTTERS
IN FRENCHVILLE INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF SNOW IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE KCBW 88-D IS NOT
PICKING UP THE SNOW AS IT APPEARS TO BE OVERSHOOTING THE TOPS OF
THE STRATUS. EXPECT THIS SNOW TO COME TO AN END WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT WILL ADD SOME LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF
CARIBOU FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. OTHERWISE THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
LOAD THE PAST FEW HOURS OF OBSERVED DATA AND RE-INTERPOLATE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE SPEED AT WHICH
STRATOCUMULUS DISSOLVES NORTH OF MILLINOCKET AND HOULTON. WILL
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE RIDGE LINE CROSSES
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S NORTH
AND LOW TO MID 20S. SOME MORNING SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TOWARDS FREEZING IN THE MORNING BEFORE A WARM FRONT ARRIVES
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF A LINE FROM GREENVILLE TOWARDS HOULTON IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN IN THESE
AREAS. THE COLD AIR IS MORE LIKELY TO STAY ENTRENCHED IN NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHERE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN THIS REGION...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE A BIT MORE ROBUST AND EXCEED A TENTH OF INCH. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE WITH FOG DEVELOPING DOWN EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE
MOIST AND HUMID AIR MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD GROUND. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOW 30S IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK AND
AROUND 40F FURTHER SOUTH IN THE BANGOR/BREWER AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPS WILL CONT TO RISE THRU THE EVE HRS INTO THE OVRNGT HRS AS
OVRRNG PRECIP CONTS OVR THE FA. AT THE START OF THE PD 00Z FRI...
PERHAPS ONLY THE NRN MOST PTNS OF THE ST JOHN VLY MAY STILL BE
EXPERIENCING -FZRA...BUT WITHIN AN HR OR TWO LATER...ANY FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE GASPE PENINSULA AS LLVL WARM ADVCN
CONTS. FOR NOW...WE MAX OUT SFC TEMPS IN THE 06-07Z TM FRAME THEN
COOL THEM BY 12Z FRI CLOSER TO THE 12Z GFS OPNL MODEL TMG OF THE
COLD FRONT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF WAS ABOUT 2 TO
3 HRS SLOWER...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN EVEN MILDER OVRNGT LOWS WITH
A SLIGHTLY DELAYED OVRNGT WARM-UP. GIVEN THAT WE ARE LEANING WITH
THE GFS...AT THIS TM WE PLAN ON ENDING THE FZRA ADV AT 00Z FRI...
WITH THIS END TM REFINABLE IN LATER FCST UPDATES.

OTHERWISE...WE XPCT AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF RNFL ACROSS THE
REGION THU NGT. WITH SFC TEMPS XPCTD TO RISE SIG ABV FZG OVR LGT
SN PACK AND COLD GROUNDS...WE XPCT AREAS OF FOG TO MATERIALIZE THU
NGT AND THEN END SHORTLY AFT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. OVR THE
WATERS...WITH FCST DEWPOINTS ONLY MAX OUT TO NEAR CURRENT SSTS...
WE KEPT FOG CVRG THERE PATCHY.

LOOKING BEYOND THU NGT...MODELS INDICATE 2 WEAK AND RATHER FLAT
S/WV IMPULSES TRACKING WELL S OF THE FA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LVL
JET STREAKS FOR FRI AND AGAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT. BOTH SYSTEMS BRING
LGT FCST QPF AND ASSOCIATED POPS TO MSLY SRN PTNS OF THE FA. WITH
COLDER AIR TO WORK WITH...EACH HAVE TO CHC TO BRING LGT SNFL...WITH
LIQ/EQUIV RATIOS KEPT LESS THAN 10:1 DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF MIXED
PRECIP...TO DOWNEAST AND POSSIBLE E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. HIGHER
POPS AND QPF ARE CURRENTLY RELEGATED OFFSHORE OVR OUR COASTAL
WATERS. AFT A VERY MILD THU NGT...HI AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY A LITTLE COLDER FRI THRU SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N
HLF OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
EXTENDING EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL BE INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A COLD NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY DOWNEAST AND A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY OVER THE
NORTH. SUNDAY WILL THEN BE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT VERY COLD AS THE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. OUR ATTENTION EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN TURNS TO
A LARGE BUT POORLY ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF A GIANT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW WILL BE
IN THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING AND FROM THERE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE FORMING IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME SNOW ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, CURRENT LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT MOST OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY LOW WILL MISS US AS IT QUICKLY SLIDES
EAST ALONG THE COASTAL BOUNDARY PASSING SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL LEAVE A GENERALLY THIN BAND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER OUR REGION ALONG THE OCCLUSION EXTENDING FROM THE
SECONDARY LOW NORTHWEST TO THE PRIMARY LOW LIFTING INTO CANADA. WHAT
THIS MEANS FOR US IS THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING, POSSIBLY AMOUNTING TO A
COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTH AND SOME SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
DOWNEAST. DRIER AIR SURGING IN ALOFT WILL THEN END PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT. THE BITTER COLD AIR WHICH HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT WILL THEN MIGRATE EAST OVERSPREADING
OUR REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING IN SOME FRIGID
AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS NORTH OF HUL WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND
DISSOLVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR NORTH OF CARIBOU
THIS EVENING. BGR AND BHB WILL BE VFR. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE FOR PQI NORTHWARD FOR SEVERAL HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. ALL
AREAS WILL DEVELOP MVFR CIGS LATER THURSDAY MORNING AND CONDITIONS
WILL DECREASE TO IFR SOUTH OF HUL IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING RAIN
IS A THREAT FOR AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM GNR TO HUL BY
MIDDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM BY MID AFTERNOON AND
LEAVE CAR AND FVE IN THE FREEZING RAIN FOR MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO TERM: IFR TO VLIFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES IN RN/FG THU NGT
WITH NRN TAF SITES IMPROVING TO MVFR IN LGT MIXED PRECIP ERLY FRI
MORN BEHIND THE FRONT. MVFR OR LOW VFR CLGS THEN XPCTD NRN TAF
SITES FRI AND SAT WHILE DOWNEAST SITES IMPROVE TO HIGH IFR OR LOW
MVFR CLGS WITH INTERMITTENT LGT RN OR MIXED PRECIP. ALL TAF SITES
IMPROVE TO VFR SAT NGT AND CONT THRU SUN NGT. CLGS AND VSBYS THEN
LOWER TO IFR BY MON AFTN IN SN NRN TAF SITES AND SN/MIXED PRECIP
DOWNEAST SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4 FEET THIS EVENING AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING...SEAS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. ANOTHER
SCA WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ISSUANCE UNTIL TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE LIKELY THU NGT...SPCLY IN THE EVE WITH
A WEAK SRLY LLVL JET CROSSING THE WATERS...THEN WVS AND WINDS
SUBSIDE FRI TO BLO SCA CRITERIA. NEAR SCA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SAT
INTO SUN MORN WITH LLVL COLD ADVCN. AFT A BREAK SUN AFTN INTO ERLY
MON MORN...ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SCA WINDS AND SEAS SEEMS
LIKELY MON AFTN INTO MON NGT. WE USED BLENDED WW3/SWAN NAM/SWAN
GFS FOR WV HTS AND BLENDED MODEL/MOS GUIDANCE WINDS WITH A SLIGHT
EMPHASIS ON THE GFS ERLY IN THE SHORT RANGE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MEZ001-002.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/MCW/VJN
MARINE...CB/MCW/VJN