Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 290519
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1219 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND CREST
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1219 AM UPDATE: THE ONLY CHANGE THIS UPDATE WAS TO THE HOURLY AND
LOW TEMPS. BANGOR DROPPED FROM +11F TO ZERO BETWEEN 11 PM AND
MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE COLDER NW VALLEYS ARE AROUND -15F. OTHER
THAN SOME TEMP ADJUSTMENTS THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

ORGNL DISC: ANY REMNANT BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM OUR
DEPARTING STORM WILL DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL THEN
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER. WITH
DEEP FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM LATE
TONIGHT, WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER
VALLEYS WHERE SOME SPOTS MAY REACH 10 BELOW. THURSDAY WILL THEN
BRING A TRANQUIL AND DRY DAY BETWEEN STORMS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE AREA AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY COLD RANGING FROM THE MID 20S DOWNEAST TO THE LOW 20S
OVER THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE STEADY OR RISING AFTER AN INITIAL DROP OFF IN THE EVENING.
TEMPS MIGHT BE A BIT LOWER THAN FORECAST FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST
IF THE CIRRUS IS NOT TOO THICK DURING THE EVENING. SNOW WILL BREAK
OUT LATE IN THE NIGHT FOR WESTERN ZONES AS A NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE INITIALLY BUT
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE EAST COAST...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN AND SHARPEN WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING EAST OF CAPE COD.
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MAINE AND SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL START
FEEDING NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH DURING
FRIDAY. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW RATIOS COULD BE QUITE HIGH
ALONG THIS INVERTED TROUGH.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A
NEGATIVE TILT AND BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW DURING FRIDAY EVENING. A
STRONG JET IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
WILL HELP ENSURE A CUT-OFF DEVELOPS. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CUT-
OFF UPPER LOW WILL SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS AND ENSURE MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE CUT-OFF WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM THE CAPE COD AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS FRIDAY NIGHT ON ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA...THE INVERTED
TROUGH OVER MAINE WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A TROWAL STRUCTURE
WITH HEAVIER SNOW BANDS LIKELY IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. BOTH
FRIDAY`S SNOW RATIOS AND BANDING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING COULD CAUSE EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE INCREASED OVER THE
NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY. SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS SYSTEM DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE EAST COAST LATE TUESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR OVERNIGHT AND THU.

SHORT TERM: VFR THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL IN LATE NIGHT.
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING. IFR WILL BE
THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT AS NORTH WINDS
CONTINUE GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO GALE
ON SATURDAY. A LIKELY SEQUENCE OF HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE A
GALE WATCH FOLLOWED BY A GALE WARNING RATHER THAN ISSUING AN SCA
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW



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