Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 281940
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
340 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT...
THEN SLOWLY CROSS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING WINDS TO SET THE STAGE
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID
20S ACROSS DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND
AROUND 50 ACROSS DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES XTNDG FROM NW QB PROV INTO THE GULF OF ME FRI NGT AND SAT
WITHE MCLR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LGT WINDS. AFT ANOTHER COLD NGT
FRI NGT...FCST HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER CLOSER SEASONAL NORMS BY
SAT AFTN...BUTS STILL A FEW DEG BELOW AVG.

SAT NGT WILL BEGIN MCLR IN THE EVE...THEN HI CLDNSS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE W LATER AS S/WV ENERGY FROM BOTH A NRN AND SRN
UPPER JETS BEGIN TO APCH FROM CNTRL CAN AND THE U.S. MIDWEST.
CLDNSS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN DURG THE DAY ON SUN...WITH LGT RN
SHWRS INVADING THE WRN HLF OF THE FA DRG SUN AFTN...AS BOTH
S/WVS WEAKEN AS THEY APCH NEW ENG. WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF QPF XPCTD NEAR THE QB BORDER BY 8 PM MON...MAX POPS IN
THE LOW LIKELY RANGE WILL ONLY REACH INTO FAR WRN PTNS OF THE FA
BY ERLY SUN EVE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER POPS EWRD. AFT MILDER
OVRNGT LOWS SAT NGT...HI TEMPS SHOULD REACH SLIGHTLY ABV SEASONAL
NORMS SPCLY ACROSS ERN PTNS OF THE FA WELL INLAND FROM THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A RATHER MESSY AND
POTENTIALLY WET FIRST WEEK OF MAY. SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT,
LOW PRES WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH INVERTED TROF EXTENDING
NNE THRU CONNECTICUT AND ST. LAWRENCE VLYS. BOTH FEATURES WILL ACT
TO PROVIDE CHC AND THEN LKLY POPS TO THE ENTIRE CWA THRU MON
NIGHT. CHC POPS MAY HOLD ON UP NORTH TUE AM, BUT EXPECT GRADUAL
CLEARING FOR ENTIRE CWA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WED AND BEYOND. THE GFS
PUSHES A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS ERN CANADA, WITH A FEW FEATURES
ROTATING AROUND IT AND GIVING US MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES THRU LATE
IN THE WEEK WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW RIDES UP THE ERN SIDE OF THE TROF
WELL EAST OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR FEATURE THAT IS A MUCH
SHARPER SHORTWAVE, WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW RIDING UP THE ERN SIDE
OF THE TROF AND CLIPPING DOWNEAST WITH PRECIP, WHILE THE UPR TROF
PINCHES OFF INTO A LOW AND DIVES SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
GFS SEEMS A TAD MORE BELIEVABLE AT THIS POINT, BUT INCORPORATED
RAIN CHCS FROM BOTH MODELS INTO THE FCST FOR NOW. BUT THE WED-THU
FCST IS RATHER LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: UNLMTD VFR XPCTD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FRI NGT THRU
SAT NGT...WITH CLGS GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN TO LOW VFR BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MSLY MVFR CLGS... AND ATTMS...VSBYS CAN BE XPCTD SUN NGT
THRU TUE WITH INTERMITTENT SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO WIND/SEA MARINE HDLNS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE
SHORT TERM WITH WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. KEPT
CLOSE TO WW3 GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...WHICH WILL MSLY BE IN
IN THE 1 TO 2 FT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE MININMUM RH/`S TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN
MARINE...DUDA/VJN
FIRE WEATHER...DUDA



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