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000
FXUS61 KCAR 011347
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
947 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain just north of the region into early
next week. Weak low pressure will track south of the Gulf of
Maine Sunday. A cold front will cross the area Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM Update: An area of light rain moving through the
Soutwestern Maine into the Mid-coast region of the state will push
into Downeast and interior Downeast Maine later this morning or
early afternoon. Adjusted pops, weather grids to reflex this area
of precipitation move in. Otherwise just minor adjustments to the
hourly temperatures, sky conditions, removed early wording from
northern zones.


Otherwise, about the only other chg was to refine the prev ngt`s
fcst low temps with latest obs in the 4-6am tm frame, then update
fcst hrly temp into late morn.

Orgnl Disc: Latest radar vol scans are actually showing ref
echoes entering into NW Somerset county very erly this morn, but
thinking this is more in the way of thicker patchy mid cldnss.
Otherwise, any patchy fog and frost across the N should dissipate
within an hour aft sunrise, leaving ptly sunny skies across the N,
ptly to msly cldy skies Cntrl and msly cldy skies ovr Downeast
areas tdy as hi/mid cldnss becomes more opaque Swrd.

The consensus of models brings isold to sct shwrs to Wrn and
Downeast areas of the FA by late aftn, with steadier rn to
Downeast areas, spcly the coast ovrngt and sct shwrs to Cntrl
areas as a wv of sfc low pres tracks E off the SE New Eng coast
into the open N Atlc. Rnfl amounts could apch a quarter inch alg
the coast, with amts dropping off quickly inland, with a fairly
large model to model fcst rnfl disparity given an event in the
near term. Almost all models agree that Nrn ptns of the FA should
remain dry thru tngt.

With more in the way of fcst cld cvr, spcly ovr the S hlf of the
FA, fcst hi temps by aftn may be a little inverted, with Nrn lctns
a little warmer than Downeast sites. Cont`d cld cvr N and spcly
some rn potential ovr the S hlf of the FA should keep ovrngt lows
tngt svrl deg warmer than this current ngt.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
On Sunday, a weak disturbance will exit the Down East region very
early and ridging will be re-established, both at the surface and
aloft. The remnants of an upper low that has been spinning in the
Ohio Valley for days will weaken and drift towards the western
Great Lakes region. The ridging indicates a dry day for the area,
but the upper low will push some clouds eastward with mostly
cloudy skies in the southern half of the forecast area and partial
sunshine north. This sunshine will propel highs to mid 60s north
while lower 60s are expected for Bangor and the coast. On Sunday
night, a cold front will approach from Quebec. Its associated
shortwave trough will capture the remnants of the old upper low.
The resulting moisture prompted slight chance pops for showers for
most of the area Sunday night except northern Aroostook County.
Lows will be mostly in the upper 40s to near 50F. The slight
chance pops and clouds remain into Monday morning, but the
expectation is that clearing will push southward from the north as
another cool Canadian high drifts south from northern Quebec.
Winds will become northerly across the entire area on Monday as
the high builds. The cool and dry air that will in place Monday
night will bring the threat of a widespread frost in the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The high will strengthen and dominate Maine`s weather into late
week. Temperatures will gradually moderate. Highs will generally
be in the low to mid 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s. Frost will
be a threat Tuesday and Wednesday nights. A warmer, moister
maritime return flow will develop later Thursday into Friday with
more clouds. Precipitation becomes a threat later Friday...either
due to a cold front arriving from the west or moisture from
Matthew. The GFS continues to advertise significant impacts to New
England next weekend as a result of Matthew. However, the 01/00Z ECMWF
remains much slower with the storm as it does not maintain a cut-
off low in Manitoba and allows a shortwave trough to propagate
eastward across the Great Lakes without capturing Matthew.
There`s little certainty in the situation other than the existence
of a potential threat that warrants review of preparedness
actions.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR for our TAF sites, xcpt brief MVFR or IFR
vsbys in patchy fog possible for Nrn TAF sites thru erly morn and
MVFR clgs and possible vsbys with rn ovr Downeast sites ovrngt.

SHORT TERM: Predominately VFR conditions are forecast with a
slight risk of some MVFR cigs Sunday night as a cold front crosses
the state.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No hdlns slated for the near term this update, although
winds and seas will likely apch SCA criteria ovr the outer MZ waters
late tngt. The day fcst crew will need to monitor wind, WW3 wv
model, and obsvd buoy ob trends leading into tngt. Otherwise,
primary wv pds will be arnd 8 sec and we kept close to WW3 wv
guidance model data for fcst wv hts.

SHORT TERM: No significant weather is expected with the exception
of a possible brief SCA later Monday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Norton
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...Norton/MCW
Marine...Norton/MCW