Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 240322
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1122 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region until Thursday. Low
pressure will approach from the southwest later Thursday and
track across the Gulf of Maine on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1125 pm update...Skies are mostly clear over all but the far
north and Downeast so lowered cloud cover to go mostly clear
across much of the area. Otherwise, no major changes this hour.

Prev discussion blo...
Ridging dominates tonight and radiational cooling will produce
shallow inversions and lows dropping to the upper 30s in the
Allagash. Elsewhere, expect lows in the 40s. Some patchy shallow
fog is possible later tonight towards the coast. The inversion
will quickly break early Wednesday morning and temperatures will
warm faster than today. Early in the day, there will be some
thicker areas of cirrus streaming northeastward from an area of
low pressure along the New Jersey coast. The low will track
south of the Gulf of Maine later Wednesday. Fair weather cumulus
will develop for the afternoon...especially in the northern
half of the forecast area. It`s possible a few of these cumulus
could generate a very brief, light rainshower...but will not
include any pops. The chances would be highest along a trough
extending from the eastern Great Lakes towards the Moosehead
Lake region. With more sunshine and a slightly warmer air mass,
expect most areas to reach the lower 70s except the coast where
the weak flow will promote onshore breezes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The models are in good agreement through the period. At the
start of the period, the local area will be under a weak high
pressure ridge separating two areas of low pressure. The first
is in the north Atlantic, south of Nova Scotia. The second is over
the southern Midwest. By Thursday morning the low over the
midwest will deepen and move north to Michigan, its associated
occluded front extending east into the Atlantic east of Long
Island. Secondary development along the triple point can be
expected, though the GFS doesn`t indicate it at this time.
Thursday evening the occluded front moves north to the Gulf of
Maine. Both the GFS and ECMWF show this solution. The GEM shows
the front over south central Maine running about 6 hrs ahead of
the other two models. Both the GFS and ECMWF show weakness and
winds supporting a low near Cape Cod. By Friday morning all 3
models move the front to central Maine. The low deepens over
Cape Cod, with the upper level energy transferring to the low
over Cape Cod. The low will track east along the Maine coast
through the day Friday, with good agreement that the low will
end up in or near the Bay of Fundy by the end of the period.

Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor
differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the
coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used
GFS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A low with a co-located upper low height center, located over
the Bay of Fundy will be the primary weather maker at the start
of the period. By Saturday morning, the low will track east
into the Canadian Maritimes and higher pressure will build
across the area. The extended models disagree on the next
system...a cold front over central Quebec.  The GFS moves it
south into northern Maine. The EC keeps it stationary over
central Quebec. A low over central IL will deepen and move
northeast over Lake Huron, its associated warm front extending
east across NJ into the North Atlantic, and by Sunday evening
the warm front will be pushing into SW Maine. Both extended
models indicate a secondary low but differ on its position. The
GFS develops the low near Cape Cod. The EC is east of Cape Cod
and south of Nova Scotia. Both models keep the occluded front
across Maine through Wednesday afternoon when the cold front
finally pushes through. The upper low will track across the area
from Tuesday evening through the end of the period.

Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models,
however the solution leans more towards the GFS solution. Used
NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor
tool.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours. BHB may see patchy fog in onshore
flow btwn 06-10z thus have included tempo group. Cu expected to
develop in the afternoon.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions at all sites Wednesday evening
through late Thursday morning. Ceiling will begin to decrease as
an occluded front moves north into the Gulf of Maine Thursday
morning. Ceiling will decrease to MVFR by noon Thursday for BHB
and BGR, falling to LMFR to IFR Thursday evening. HUL, PQI, CAR
will fall to MVFR Late Thursday afternoon, then to LMVFR to IFR
around midnight. IFR conditions in rain will persist through the
day Friday as the low pressure move east along the downeast
coast. Conditions will break early Saturday morning as the low
moves east into eastern Canada. All sites will improve to VFR.
VFR conditions will hold until another front moves south out of
Canada into northern Maine at the end of the period bring FVE,
CAR and PQI back to LMVFR, with periods of IFR in showers.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: South to southeast swell around 3 feet will continue
through the period with light winds. Fog will diminish this
afternoon and evening, but patchy fog will briefly return late
tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below SCA through early Friday
morning. Winds will build to low end SCA conditions by around
3am Friday and will remain above SCA through midday Friday. Seas
will remain 5 ft or greater from Friday morning through midday
Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Farrar/MCW
Short Term...Norton
Long Term...Norton
Aviation...Farrar/MCW/Norton
Marine...Farrar/MCW/Norton



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