Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 281015
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
615 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0605 EDT: HAVE ADDED HIGHER POPS AND ADDED THUNDER OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT. NO OTHER CHANGES.

A SURFACE TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE FROM CENTRAL SOUTHWARD TO INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH COASTAL AREAS
REMAINING TOO STABLE. WILL INCLUDE WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WIND IN HIGHEST PROBABILITY AREAS. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND
GFS FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FROM THE SUPER BLEND BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TERM WILL BE ON THURSDAY W/THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL RIGHT ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST REGION W/THE UPPER LOW DROPPING S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK. THIS WILL MEAN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON
DOWN ACROSS HANCOCK COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON(20-30%). THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY W/SB CAPES AROUND 300 JOULES
AND LIS DOWN TO -2. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 6.0 C/KM. NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO TO
THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF POSSIBLE TSTMS RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS THERE WILL BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLE HEATING. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE TSTMS. FURTHER N AND W, MUCH DRIER AND SUNNY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOA NORMAL READINGS FOR
LATE JULY. CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/SOME FOG
DEVELOPING. OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST TO AROUND 60 CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

FOR THURSDAY, ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/NAM AND
ECMWF ALL SHOW DECENT LLVL WARMING W/SOME UPPER DIFLUENCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. SURFACE HEATING LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
AS THE FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCLUDING THE GFS ARE THERE FOR POSSIBLE
STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING MAINLY FOR WESTERN MAINE. THESE PARAMETERS INCLUDE:
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HITTING 6.5 C/KM, SB/MU CAPES 1500+
JOULES W/LIS DOWN TO AROUND -5. INCREASING HUMIDITY SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE INTO THE RANGE OF 65 TO 70.
FREEZING LEVELS/WBZS AROUND 11.5K FT TO SUPPORT HAIL AND SHEAR IS
THERE AS WELL TO SUPPORT WIND POTENTIAL. ATTM, IT LOOKS LIKE A SSE
WIND WILL KEEP LLVLS STABLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS TO
ALLEVIATE A SEVERE THREAT. THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC
HAS THE WESTERN SECTIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO GO
SEVERE. ATTM, WILL KEEP GENERAL WORDING FOR TSTMS IN THE FORECAST
AND LET THE DAYCREW ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, THAT FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE E OVERNIGHT AND INTO WESTERN
NEW BRUNSWICK BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL MOVE TO THE E
W/THE FRONT AND WEAKEN AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS E AND
INSTABILITY WEAKENS. USED A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS(60%) ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY IN THE NIGHT
AND THEN DROP CHANCES DOWN TO 30-40% AS ACTIVITY WEAKENS.

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY W/THE BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MAINE. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW LLVLS WARMING ON
FRIDAY W/SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT THE MENTION OF TSTMS(ISOLATED)
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM, KEPT CHANCES AT
30% AS BEST MOISTURE RESIDES AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL. SHOWERS WILL
END FRIDAY NIGHT W/THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND BEST FORCING
LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY W/AN UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE REGION AT THE TIME OF
PEAK HEATING. ONCE AGAIN, ATMOSPHERE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
DESTABILIZE TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE TSTMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. DECIDED ON 40% POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO THE EVENING
AND THEN THINGS EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
W/A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PRIMARILY EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
IMPROVING IN ALL AREAS TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR TO COVER IT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE KBHB AS A SSE FLOW COULD LEAD TO MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS
AND FOG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LEADING TO
CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
CURRENTLY WITH WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS FROM
INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL 2 FEET/11 SECONDS. WITH WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT THIS CURRENT LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM TO DOMINATE . WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE
MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM: NO EXPECTING ANY SCA HEADLINES THIS TERM. FOG AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION ESPECIALLY EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT W/FRONTAL PASSAGES. WINDS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS EXCEPT HIGHER IN
ANY TSTMS. SEAS TO AVERAGE AROUND 3 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT


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