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000
FXUS61 KCAR 280450
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1250 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A MORE
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1250 AM UPDATE...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED THE AREA AND
SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN NUMBER ATTM. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH DAYBREAK. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE, JUST
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
2 SERIES OF RAINFALL EVENTS EXPECTED THIS TERM. THE FIRST WAVE OF
RAINFALL W/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC W/A SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE
MAIN THREAT W/THE TSTMS. THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE DONG WELL W/THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS
W/A LINE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE. STEADIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS BY THIS EVENING W/WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS SEEING
THINGS LETTING UP BY LATE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS LATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSE FOG AS A LIGHT SSE WIND AND
WET GROUND WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTH,
CLOUDS AND LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENSIVENESS OF THE
FOG. THEREFORE, PER COLLABORATION W/GYX, ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BANGOR-BAR HARBOR
REGIONS AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND DANFORTH. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL RUN INTO THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY, A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL W/SOME FOG AROUND IN THE
MORNING BUT MORE RAIN ON THE WAY AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE MORE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A DECENT SSE INFLOW W/SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNT KATAHDIN
W/THAT SSE FLOW. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A GOOD
SWATH OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM 18-00Z AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR BUT SPLITS THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO 2 AREAS W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND ANOTHER
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ATTM, WILL USE A CONSENSUS FOR
RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND QPF WHICH SHOWS 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY POTENT MID AND LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MAINE
MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING THE SYSTEM`S EXIT, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW, MEETING IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SPEEDING THINGS UP AND THE ECMWF SLOWING THINGS DOWN.

FOR TUESDAY, LOOK FOR COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT SOUTHWEST
BREEZE. IT COULD STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND LOOK FOR
SOMEWHAT CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES. QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES PERSIST,
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER JAMES BAY, BUT JUST NOT MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.  DESPITE A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ANY SHOWERS WHICH FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE IFR AS OF 9 PM...EXCEPT STILL
SOME AREAS OF MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE TREND WILL BE FOR
THE CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VLIFR
CONDITIONS IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VLIFR TO IFR
MONDAY AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS, TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE LATE AT NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RUNNING IT INTO TUESDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE STILL
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S
ASSESSMENT OF BRINGING SEAS TO 6 FT LATER MONDAY W/WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS. CAN SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 25
KTS FOR A TIME LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET OF 35 KTS
SWINGS OVER THE REGION.


SHORT TERM: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS,
AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FOISY