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000
FXUS61 KCAR 160505
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
105 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
COLD HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1257 AM UPDATE: BIGGEST CONCERNS ATTM ARE FLOODING AND ICE JAMS.
LATEST RADAR HAD A SLUG OF RAIN STREAMING NORTHWARD RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING BACK ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS FOR RAIN TO BE CHANGING TO SNOW. ATTM, STAYED
W/1-3 INCHES IN THESE AREAS AND LESS THAN AN INCH FURTHER EAST.

ON THE FLOODING ISSUES, ICE IS MOVING AND JAMMING NOW AT THE
WASHBURN GAGE(WSHM1) ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER W/THE RIVER SPIKING TO
15.5 FT AND FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. ICE JAM REMAIN ON THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER AT FORT FAIRFIELD W/REPORTS THAT THIS JAM IS HUNG UP RIGHT NEAR
THE BRIDGE. ROADS AROUND AROOSTOOK COUNTY HAVE BEEN THE MOST
IMPACTED W/SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: MILD/MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING ERN NYS AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND... HVY RAIN ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT HAS REACHED
OUR WRN AREAS AND WILL CONT TO SPREAD EWRD INTO XTRM ERN AREAS BY
THIS EVE. THE VRY WARM AND MOIST AIR HAS ALREADY PRODUCED
SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF AND HVY RAINFALL ARRIVING LATER
TODAY WILL ONLY ACT TO ACCENTUATE FLOODING CONCERNS. HYDRO ISSUES
ARE ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL BLO.

OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT LATER TNGT THRU WED... TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 20S TO MID 30S LATE TNGT/ERLY WED BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
WILL NOT SHOW MUCH RECOVERY ON WED. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO A PD OF
SNOW LATE TNGT SPCLY ACROSS THE N BUT ACCUMS SHOULD BE ON THE LGT
SIDE AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR/DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO
MID 20S DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
RISING TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY SURFACE HIGH EAST OF CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH WEAKENING
RIDGE EXTENDING WEST ACROSS FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF EAST COAST TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF REGION BUT SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS BY LATE SUNDAY FOR CLEARING SKIES . WEAK
UPPER TROFFING RETURNS BY TUESDAY MORNING FOR INCREASED CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
AT OR NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE FA W/ A MILD AND MOIST SRLY
FLOW IN PLACE... THESE CONDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL PASSAGE OF A SHARP
COLD FRONT LATER TNGT WHICH WILL INTRODUCE MUCH COLDER BUT DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER TNGT W/ THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT W/ VFR CONDS THEN CONTG THRU WED.

SHORT TERM:VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE GLW TIL 12Z WED W/ BRISK SRLY WNDS CONTG
IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT...

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATE: ICE IS MOVING ON THE RIVERS INCLUDING THE AROOSTOOK, ST.
JOHN AND PISCATAQUIS. ICE JAMMING AT THE WASHBURN GAGE(WSHM1)
W/ANOTHER JAM AT THE FORT FAIRFIELD BRIDGE ON ROUTE 1A. TALKED
W/THE EMA AND THEY ARE MONITORING THINGS ATTM.

FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE... VERY MILD/MOIST AIR IN ADVANCE OF A
SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT CONTRIBUTING TO RAPID SNOW MELT/RIVER RISES
AND HYDRO CONCERNS ATTM. IN ADDITION...A PD OF HVY RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W-E LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AND THIS
WILL ONLY ACT TO ACCENTUATE CONCERNS W/ .75-1.25 INCHES OF RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF ERLY TUE AFTN...NUMEROUS RPTS HAVE
BEEN RCVD OF WATER OVERFLOWING ROADS FROM FARM FIELDS AS WELL AS
ICE MVMNT W/ THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE JAMS INCREASING.
APPEARS WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE MOST VULNERABLE TIME FRAME
FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING W/ THESE CONCERNS LIKELY TO CONT INTO
WED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017-
     029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT