Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 071424

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
924 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

Low pressure north of the great lakes region will move northeast
through tonight. A cold front will approach from the west
Thursday and cross the region Thursday night and Friday. A much
colder air mass will follow for the weekend.


925 update. Only minor adjustments to the previous forecast.
Patchy freezing fog continues across Aroostook County, however
currently showing signs of improvement. Made adjustments to hrly
temps to keep them current.

previous discussion
Latest surface analysis shows an area of low pressure north
of the great lakes region and another low east of the mid atlantic
coast. The mid atlantic low will continue to move east and out to
sea while the low north of the great lakes region moves slowly
northeast across James Bay. Some weak energy rotating around this
low will cross the forecast area today. This will result in cloudy
skies today along with the chance of a little light snow at times.
It maybe warm enough for a mix of rain or snow along the downeast
coast this afternoon. Any snow accumulation with this system will
be generally be less than an inch, except there may be some
locally higher amounts across the higher terrain. High
temperatures this afternoon will range from the mid 20s to near 30
degrees north and central areas, with low to mid 30s downeast.

A few snow showers may linger into early this evening,
otherwise expect a mainly cloudy night tonight in advance of an
upper trof approaching from the west. It will be a milder night
as the expected cloud cover precludes temperatures from falling
all that much overnight. Expect lows tonight to generally range
from the mid 20s across northern and central areas, with mid 20s
to near 30 downeast.


Thu will be the mildest day in this pd, with sn shwrs xpctd ahead
of a cold front to cross the region Thu ngt. A secondary, arctic
cold front will cross the region on Fri, withe additional sn shwrs
and the possibility of sn sqls. Fri`s hi temps will be colder
with brisk winds with colder ovrngt lows Fri ngt and hi temps Sat
as St Lawrence seaway streamer sn bands cont ovr spcly the nrn hlf
of the FA.


Sn shwrs across the N should end Sat eve with clrg skies xpctd late
Sat ngt. Although winds will diminish late Sat ngt, only NW vlys
may see lmtd radiational cooling/sfc based arctic invsn potential
with NW gradient winds holding on.

Fair skies Sun morn will give way to increasing hi/mid cldnss by
mid to late aftn as low pres from the great lks begins to apch.
Snfl from this system will ovrsprd the region from the w later
Sun ngt and cont thru most of Mon. The 00z dtmnstc GFS in
particular brings the track of a secondary sfc low close enough to
the coast to potentially bring a chg ovr to rn for Downeast areas
by Mon aftn. Overall from this far out, this looks to be at least
a sn adv event ovr the region, even ovr Downeast areas prior to
any potential chgovr with a belt of marginal wntr stm wrng snfl
ovr Cntrl ptns of the FA. Across the Nrn and Cntrl ptns of the FA,
colder sfc temps with this event should mean a more powdery sn
event, which would be good news for area trees still laden with sn
from recent prior events due to a relative lack of wind. the hope
is that some of this snow will be blown off the trees from brisk
winds Fri and Sat before any SN Sun ngt thru Mon. Seasonably cold
with unsettled sn shwr conditions follow behind the low for Mon
ngt and Tue.


NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR conditions can be expected across the northern
terminals through early this morning in low clouds, with MVFR
conditions elsewhere. Expect generally MVFR conditions in periods
of light snow today and then in ceilings tonight.

SHORT TERM: Mainly MVFR clgs Nrn TAF sites and VFR Downeast sites
with vsbys briefly IFR Nrn TAF sites and MVFR Downeast sites in
any sn shwrs thru Sat. Otherwise, all sites become VFR Sat ngt and
cont so thru Sun.


NEAR TERM: Wind/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels
through tonight.

SHORT TERM: Aft an initial pd of no hdln conditions, a lengthy pd
of at least SCA winds and seas looks very likely with strong llvl
cold advcn, with brief gale force wind gusts possible Thu ngt thru
Sat. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts thru this ptn
of the fcst.





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