Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 162323
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
619 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build tonight into Sunday. Weak low pressure
will approach the region on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
610 PM Update...
Temps were dropping off quickly back across the far
w and nw areas w/some sites coming in w/-3F such as Estcourt
Station. The way the pattern is setting up overnight, it looks as
though low lying sites will continue to drop quickly w/clear skies
and light winds. The exception will be the far nw zones including
the St. John Valley as winds could stay up around 10 mph leading to
wind chills going to -20F or lower. Further e and s, winds look like
they drop back below 10 mph but still very cold. Sfc analysis showed
trof hanging back across the w and nw areas w/some clouds showing up
per the latest IR satl imagery. Sounding data from the RAP show most
of this area staying clear overnight.
Wind Chill Advisory remains up for the nw areas including the
St. John Valley.

Previous Discussion...
Clds expected to depart the area as the wv mvs offshore around
00z this evng. Skies wl be moclr ovrngt with winds rmng out of
the nw as pressure gradient holds tight. Fcst mins tonight
expected to drop blo zero acrs the north as cold air continues
to infiltrate the state. With winds rmng up wl be issuing a wind
chill advisory for northwest Aroostook. Widespread wind chills
of -20F acrs this region expected. May see a brief pd of -20F
wind chill in the Caribou/Presque Isle area but only for an hr
or two by mrng.

Sunny skies expected tomorrow with hipres building in fm the
west. Nw winds will lighten up in the aftn with high temps
several degrees shy of Sat as caa continues.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
On Sunday night, an Arctic air mass will be in place and winds
will diminish as surface high pressure builds. Radiation cooling
and decoupling will start with temperatures plummeting in the
evening, but increasing high clouds will arrive in the latter
half of the night. As a result, will only go slightly below
consensus guidance...which is still quite cold with subzero
readings in the northern half of the forecast area. On Monday, a
weak shortwave will arrive from the Great Lakes. At this point,
it appears that a weak low will form near the coast with some
snow shower activity towards the coast, but not much further
inland. An inch is possible towards coastal Hancock County. On
Monday night, high pressure returns at the surface with a
shortwave ridge. Once again, increasing higher clouds will
negate radiational cooling after the early evening as warm
frontal clouds approach. The warm front will set off snow
Tuesday morning...mostly in northern zones. An inch or two will
be possible with this northern stream system that will have
little moisture. Temperatures will warm significantly...to the
upper 20s in northern Aroostook County and nearly 40F towards
the coast by Tuesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Tuesday night, a cold front will cross in conjunction with a
cold upper trough. This combination will create some instability
with snow showers...or even snow squalls. The air mass behind
the front is colder, but highs on Wednesday will still be the
20s...and even lower 30s for Bangor and the coast. The most
notable feature on Wednesday will be gusty NW winds with a deep
mixed layer. Gusts could reach 35 mph. A few flurries cannot be
ruled out, but will not go with pops in the grids for Wednesday
at this point. Winds slowly decrease Wednesday night as high
pressure builds, but not to the point where there`s a need to go
with temps below guidance. The high is expected to bring some
sunshine and lighter winds on Thursday, but colder H925-H850
temperatures will result in a much cooler day than Wednesday.
High clouds arrive again Thursday night in advance of a warm
front that will bring snow on Friday. Low pressure will track
towards the area on Friday, but the exact track is not
certain...and as a result...p-type remains in question. Am going
with a colder solution and more snow at this time, but the issue
remains very much in doubt with projected storm tracks ranging
from Quebec to the Gulf of Maine. The overall synoptic pattern
suggests potential ice storm trouble towards Friday night as
warmer air aloft in the southern stream overruns a cold Arctic
dome.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR at all terminals next 24 hours with high clouds
occasionally skirting through tonight and Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Expect VFR Sunday night. On Monday, VFR conditions
will remain north of BGR, but for BGR and southward to BHB, IFR
conditions in snow showers are possible. For Monday night, all
terminals are expected to be VFR. On Tuesday, all sites will
experience lowering cigs such that IFR conditions are likely
north of HUL by midday and MVFR south of HUL. Snow will also
reduce vis north of HUL to IFR tempo LIFR. A strong cold front
on Tuesday night will produce tempo LIFR conditions in snow
showers north of HUL. The prevailing condition on Wednesday will
be VFR, but northwesterly winds will gust as high as 35 mph.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will gust to aoa 25kts for about a 6-hr period
this evng and tonight before dropping blo SCA levels thru
Sunday.

SHORT TERM: An SCA is expected Tuesday into Wednesday night. A
brief gale is possible Wednesday evening. The next SCA will be
later Friday into Saturday. Again, a period of gale conditions
cannot be ruled out.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Chill Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday for MEZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hewitt/Farrar
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW A
viation...Farrar/MCW
Marine...Farrar/MCW



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