Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 171640
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1240 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front will cross the area from the west by
evening...followed by a weak cold front late tonight. A ridge of
high pressure from the Ohio valley will cross the region
Wednesday...then settle south of the region for the late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1225 PM Update: Cld cvr advancement across Nrn ptns of the FA
was lagged by about an hr based on latest sat imagery using the
time shift tool. Otherwise...fcst hrly temps/dwpts were again
adjusted to msly unchgd fcst hi temps this aftn based on latest
trends seen from midday sfc obs.

Orgnl Disc: The ridge of high pressure will move through the
area this morning with winds shifting from northerly to
southwesterly very quickly. This means warmer temperatures for
today with highs in the low to mid 50s under sunny skies. The SW
winds will increase this afternoon as the high slides to the
south and gusts over 20 mph are expected in northern zones.
Clouds will increase from the northwest as the warm front
approaches. The parent low for this frontal system will be with
a low moving from James Bay towards Labrador. The accompanying
upper level shortwave with this system will be weakening today
and tonight as a strong upper level ridge builds behind it. For
these reasons and the fact that the system will be moisture-
starved in a dry NW upper flow, will only go with slight chance
pops in northern Aroostook County this evening...and none
elsewhere. What this system will do is generate enough cloud
cover to keep Tuesday night`s lows in the upper 30s and set the
stage for much warmer temperatures on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build across the region Wednesday, then exit
to the east Wednesday night. Partly/mostly sunny skies are
expected across northern areas Wednesday, with mostly sunny
skies across the remainder of the region. Clear skies are
expected across the forecast area Wednesday night. A warm front
will cross the region early Thursday, with a cold front crossing
Thursday night. Generally expect mostly sunny skies across the
region Thursday, though cloud cover will begin to increase
across northern areas during the afternoon. Partly cloudy skies
are expected across the forecast area Thursday night, with a
chance of showers mostly across northern areas. Temperatures
will be at above normal levels Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will build across the region Friday through
Saturday, then begin to exit across the maritimes Sunday. Mostly
clear skies are expected Friday/Saturday, with mostly/partly
sunny skies Sunday. A slow moving cold front will approach from
the west Monday, with cloud cover increasing in advance of the
front. Could also have a slight chance of showers Monday, with
increasing shower chances Monday night. Temperatures will
remain at above normal levels Friday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions through the period with the
slight chance of MVFR cigs near 3000ft later tonight for sites
north of Presque Isle. There will be no cigs and excellent vis
after sunrise until late this afternoon and evening when cigs
above 5000 ft arrive north of HUL.

SHORT TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions across the region
Wednesday through Saturday. However, occasional MVFR conditions
are possible across mostly the north and mountains Thursday
night.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will pick up tonight and seas will move towards
5 ft. SW gusts to 30 kt will be possible. In spite of the SW
winds, it looks like decent mixing rather than a stable
situation and have opted for an SCA in the outer waters. Will
not issue for the intracoastal waters around MDI.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are possible early
Wednesday across much of the waters, with the exception of the
intracoastal waters. Conditions are then expected to be below
small craft advisory levels later Wednesday through early
Thursday. Small craft advisory conditions are then expected to
develop again later Thursday and persist Thursday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...VJN/Norcross
Marine...VJN/Norcross



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