Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 221032
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
632 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cross the region today. A warm front then
lifts across the region Friday, with a cold front Friday night
into Saturday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630am update...Raised highs today in northern zones by a degree
or so based on the latest H850 temps and the very dry air.

Previous discussion...
Transient high pressure at the surface and aloft crosses the
area today into tonight. The air mass is very dry with dew
points dropping into the lower 40s in northern zones today. Did
adjust model guidance downward as drier air will be mixed to the
surface. The mixing layer will be quite deep today and generate
some gusty west-northwest winds. Gusts will reach 20 to 25 mph
at times. There will be some scattered to occasionally broken
cumulus fields at the top of the mixed layer...mostly towards
the Crown of Maine and near the coast. The coast will be the
warmest area with the offshore flow. Highs will range from the
low to mid 70s north to upper 70s to near 80F for Bangor and the
Down East region. Winds will die down Thursday night, but
increasing high clouds and warm advection will limit radiational
cooling. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower to mid
50s.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A warm front will lift across the region Friday with overrunning
rains developing. Afternoon thunderstorms are also possible. The
steadiest rains will occur across northern areas, where the
rain could be heavy at times during the afternoon. Lesser rain
totals will occur southward across the remainder of the
forecast area. A cold front will then begin to cross the region
later Friday night. Rain, with a chance of thunderstorms, will
occur across the region early Friday night with rain chances
then decreasing overnight. The steadiest rains early Friday
night will remain across northern areas, where the rain could be
heavy at times during the evening. The cold front crosses the
region Saturday with mostly/partly cloudy skies along with a
chance of showers. Showers could linger Saturday evening.
Otherwise, partly cloudy skies are expected Saturday night.
Temperatures will be at near normal levels Friday. Near normal,
to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected
Saturday.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Unsettled conditions are expected across the region Sunday
through Wednesday. A series of cold fronts/trofs and upper
level disturbances will cross the region in advance of an
approaching upper level trof which should reach the region
Wednesday. The exact timing of these fronts/trofs and
disturbances is still uncertain. However, expect the chance
of occasional showers will persist across the forecast area
Sunday through Wednesday along with partly/mostly cloudy skies.
Temperatures will be at near normal levels Sunday through
Wednesday.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR with excellent visibility through tonight.
Temporary broken cigs near 6K feet are possible by later this
morning into the afternoon. Gusty WNW winds are forecast. Gusts
may reach 20 to 25 mph today.

SHORT TERM: VFR/MVFR conditions early Friday will lower to
IFR/LIFR levels Friday afternoon. Similar conditions will
persist early Friday night, with MVFR/IFR conditions later
Friday night. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the
region Saturday into early Saturday night. Generally expect VFR
conditions later Saturday night into early Sunday, with
occasional MVFR conditions again possible later Sunday into
Monday.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No significant weather is forecast. Adjusted wind and
wave guidance downward in line with buoy obs.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas are expected to be below small craft
advisory levels Friday. Small craft advisory conditions are
then possible Friday night into Saturday. Conditions should
fall back below small craft advisory levels Saturday night.
Visibilities will be reduced in fog along with a chance of rain
and showers Friday into Saturday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$

Near Term...MCW
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...MCW/Norcross
Marine...MCW/Norcross



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