Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 311958
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
358 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high
pressure will build into the region Wednesday, and will move east
of the area Thursday. Low pressure will pass to the north of the
area Friday sending a cold front into the Saint Lawrence River
Valley Friday afternoon.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The strongest storm of the day is currently passing across the
border. After that, it seems like we will mostly have lingering
showers and perhaps few rumbles of thunder through the rest of the
afternoon as CAPE is likely dropping in the cold pool behind these
storms. Broad high pressure moving will move across the CWA from
Canada overnight into Wednesday, leading to crashing dewpoints and
clearing skies over the next 18 hours. Behind the front, Wednesday
looks like a rather pleasant and seasonably warm day across the
state.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On Wednesday night...high pressure moves into the Canadian
Maritimes. A southerly flow on the backside of the high will
advect some stratocumulus into the area on Thursday and the
onshore flow will keep highs along the coast in the lower 50s.
Further inland...most areas outside of the Down East region will
measure highs in the upper 60s to near 70F. The cool maritime air
spreads over the entire area on Thursday night with low clouds and
fog under a frontal inversion. Rain will arrive later Thursday
night with a warm front and associated weak shortwave aloft. There
will be some instability aloft and a thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out towards Aroostook County but have not added this to the grids
right now. The warm front will not make it cleanly through the
area for Friday. The result will be coastal fog and low clouds
under the frontal inversion most of the day...especially towards
the coast. This will generate another chilly day for the Down East
region with highs in the low to mid 50s. The frontal inversion
will break in the western mountains on Friday afternoon with
highs in the low to mid 70s and the threat of afternoon
thunderstorms. Have introduced the chance of afternoon
thunderstorms for the NW zones where some afternoon heating will
occur ahead of the cold front in the warm sector.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally pleasant weather is expected this coming weekend before
a large and deep storm system digging into the great lakes at the
beginning of next week brings a few days of overcast and rainy
weather. A corridor of dry weather between a weak upper low to our
north and the approaching trough to our southwest will bring a
partly sunny and seasonably warm day on Saturday. Sunday should
remain dry and warm with partial sunshine. Meanwhile, the big storm
system will be digging into the lakes late in the weekend and some
clouds may begin to increase late in the day from this system.
Forecast models are in some disagreement with how fast clouds
approach with the GFS keeping skies mostly sunny on Sunday but the
ECMWF and Canadian bringing clouds in more quickly from the
southwest. The storm moves in Monday with clouds, increasing
southeasterly winds and rain moving in from south to north. The low
will very slowly move across the area through early week bringing a
continuation of clouds and periods of rain and drizzle Tuesday and
Wednesday. Rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible across the
area from this system through early to mid week next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Patchy MVFR for KCAR thru KHUL for patchy shower
activity this afternoon. All terminals are VFR later tonight
through Wednesday as high pressure builds in.

SHORT TERM: Mostly VFR Wednesday night into Thursday with the
exception of a few brief periods of MVFR cigs. IFR cigs set in
Thursday night for all terminals and continue through Friday. The
exception will be towards GNR and FVE and points westward. This
area will become VFR Friday afternoon with the chance of
thunderstorms. Embedded thunderstorms are also possible later
Thursday night...mostly for PQI...CAR and FVE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Drier air moving in behind the front tonight with the
high pressure should limit the fog chances, while also bringing
calmer winds and lowering seas. No concerns for advisory level
winds or seas are anticipated.

SHORT TERM: Fog is the big concern...starting Thursday night and
continuing Friday. Have added areas of fog to the grids for this
period.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$

Near Term...Kredensor
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Kredensor/MCW
Marine...Kredensor/MCW



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