Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 220509
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1209 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region overnight. High pressure will
build north of the area Sunday into Monday. Low pressure will then
intensify along the mid Atlantic coast Monday and move north
toward the region late Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1210 AM update...The cold front lies poised just to our northeast.
It will slowly drop southward into the Pine Tree State through
daybreak. A snow shower or two will be possible as it does so.
Otherwise, lots of clouds and temperatures holding nearly steady,
perhaps dropping a few degrees. The forecast has this pretty much
covered, so no significant changes were made with this update.

Previous Discussion...
A new area of high pressure building across Quebec in response to
strong ridging aloft in east central Canada will push down from
the north on Sunday. This will bring a light northeasterly flow
and possibly some breaks in the overcast. Otherwise, Sunday will
be dry and mild for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Backdoor cold front will push into the region with an area of
high pressure centered over Quebec Province noses in. This will
allow easterly winds to become established over the region on
Monday with a slightly cooler day then the last few, but still
well above average temperatures for this time of year. Monday
night the developing Mid-Atlantic low pressure system will begin
to approach the area from the south. Easterly winds will begin to
increase over the coast out ahead of the storm system. Models are
showing a strong low-level jet with 925mb winds reaching 60kts out
of the east early Tuesday morning. Wind advisories will be needed
most likely for the coast. Precipitation will begin to break out
early Tuesday morning across Downeast/Bangor/Central Highlands.
Thermal profiles are still difficult to pinpoint this far out, but
critical thickness values for all model camps are showing mixed
precipitation possible all the way to Northern Maine. Spread
continues between the model camps, but the ECMWF was a good
compromise between the warmer GFS and cold GEM. Ensemble spread
within the models also continues. Overall went with a compromise
of latest guidance and persistence from last forecast. Tuesday
morning could be ice across Bangor and Interior Downeast, with an
icy commute home for Northern Maine and the Central Highlands.
Held off any any headlines due to model spread this far out still.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Icy mess continues Tuesday night as coastal low pulls north
through the Gulf of Maine and colder air begins to work back
aloft. Precip should end late Tuesday night across the North with
a small break expected during the day on Wednesday. Another system
could impact the region on Thursday with mostly rain and snow
showers expected. Mostly cloudy and colder weather expected Friday
and Saturday as cyclonic flow continues across the region. Central
highlands and Northern Maine could experience a few stray snow
showers, with dry conditions expected across Bangor and Downeast.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR conditions, mostly ceilings, are expected
across the region into the early morning hours with MVFR
conditions late tonight into Sunday morning. MVFR conditions are
expected to persist across the north and mountains Sunday
afternoon, with VFR/MVFR conditions Bangor and Downeast.

SHORT TERM: IFR conditions expected on Monday. Aviation impacts
expected by early Tuesday morning, with strong low level wind
shear, especially near BGR/BHB. Mixed precipitation also possible
Downeast before changing over to rain by the afternoon. Snow,
sleet and freezing rain in IFR conditions by Tuesday afternoon
across Northern Maine.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels overnight through much of Sunday. However, a few
gusts may approach 25 kt in northeasterly winds late Sunday across
the offshore waters.

SHORT TERM: Gale Watch in effect for the coastal waters late
Monday through the day on Tuesday, as a Nor`Easter moves up the
coast. Strong NE winds expected by Monday night, with waves
building to close 18ft over the waters by Tuesday. Surface low
pulls north of the waters by Wednesday morning, with northwest
winds and subsiding seas to SCA conditions.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer/Hastings
Short Term...Dumont
Long Term...Dumont
Aviation...Bloomer/Hastings/Dumont
Marine...Bloomer/Hastings/Dumont



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