Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 041951
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
351 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND.
FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD OHIO AS THE LOW MOVES
TO THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN QUEBEC NEAR
HUDSON BAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODELS
SHOWING THE SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS NRN OHIO BUT MOSTLY NWRN PA.  AT THE SURFACE A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE AND REACH INTO THE AREA
BEFORE DISSIPATING WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING MAINLY DUE TO
HEATING. OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AM CONCERNED THAT A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE THAT MOVE INTO NERN OHIO OR
NWRN PA. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT
REACHING +9 TO +10C BY 12Z VC +13C TODAY. NOT A BIG CHANGE BUT
BUFKIT DOES SHOW CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO THE LAKE. WILL HAVE A
CHANCE POP THIS EVENING FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA DROPPING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY. CONCERNED ABOUT ANY ONGOING SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE
LAKESHORE EAST OF KCLE AT FIRST BUT THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE AIRMASS MIXES. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTH OVER
THE LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN IL. MODELS A LITTLE CLOSER
WITH THE SOLUTION VS YDAY WITH MORE OF A CONSENSUS OF MOST OF THE
PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO. WILL BRING A CHANCE POP
INTO THE FAR SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT THIS
COULD END UP TOO HIGH GIVEN TRENDS. FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE NORTH. AFTERNOON TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S WED-
THURS AND CLOSER TO 80 FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL START TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE THE TROUGH DEEPENS AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL TAKE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WESTERLY FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL SET UP BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S ON SUNDAY.

MOISTURE INCREASES FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY AS A SERIES OF ACTIVE WAVES
MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF
THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON AS MOISTURE INCREASES. KEPT
HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SCT CLOUDS
NEAR 5K FEET WILL BECOME BROKEN AT SEVERAL SITES THIS EVENING AS A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ERI THIS
EVENING BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF AT
THIS TIME. WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
18 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TONIGHT TO
NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY VEER TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS DEVELOPING. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC



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