Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 280747
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
347 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016
An area of high pressure will move across the Ohio Valley today
and shift to the middle Atlantic Coast on Saturday. Low pressure
will move east across Ontario on Saturday forcing a cold front
south across the area Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure
will return to the region for Sunday night and Monday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Still seeing some returns on radar although there has been a
decrease in coverage the past couple of hours. Will continue with
a 20 pop in the CLE area for a couple hours but all areas should
be dry by 10z or so. After that the big question is how fast the
clouds will go away. Forecast soundings continue to show a sharp
inversion below 3000 feet. This feature will persist through
midday and will be tough to get widespread clearing till the
inversion breaks. Clearing is occurring over Lake Erie so the sun
may make an appearance over the east end of the area later this
morning. As it stands will take sky conditions to partly cloudy
all areas in the afternoon. Warm air advection will get going
later today so guidance temps seem reasonable. We may even see a
few lower 60s in the west and far south.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
By this evening high pressure will be overhead and skies should be
mainly clear. Warm air advection will be ongoing so lows tonight
will be quite a bit warmer than this morning. Will start to see an
increase in moisture from the north early Saturday. Clouds will
begin to increase and by late in the day skies again will be
mostly cloudy. Have not had to make any changes to the precip
forecast as the models are finally in decent agreement with the
low passing well to the north. A few showers could clip NW PA and
far NE OH on Saturday afternoon but better chances for rain will
occur Saturday night into Sunday. The surface cold front should
reach the south shore of Lake Erie around 06z Sunday and will be
south of the area by Sunday evening. In between these times will
be the best chances for rain and will go with likely pops most
areas. Although surface dewpoints will surge back into the middle
50s just don`t see enough instability to justify a thunder mention
at this time. By 00Z Monday the entire area should again be dry
after a quarter to half inch of rain most areas. High pressure
will dominate for the start of the workweek.
Saturday will be a warm day as 850 mb temps reach the lower
teens. Some highs in the middle 70s are possible in the south
where the clouds will be slowest to arrive. Have used a blend of
guidance for the remainder of the period.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Very warm conditions are expected on Tuesday with breezy
southwesterly flow developing as low pressure tracks across the
Upper Great Lakes. Raised highs on Tuesday into the 70s for nearly
all areas with southern locations forecast to reach the mid 70s.
Clouds in the east are expected to clear out fairly quickly with
lots of sun expected to push temperatures to around 15 degrees above
normal. The associated cold front stalls as it sinks south into
northeast Ohio/northwest Pennsylvania Tuesday night. Models in good
agreement showing the front lifting back north on Wednesday ahead of
a trough and associated surface low approaching from the west.
Timing and track of this feature will have an effect on how warm
temperatures will be through the extended but above normal conditions
look likely through Thursday. This system will eventually bring a
chance of showers and possibly even thunderstorms to the
area sometime during the Wednesday night/Thursday time frame.
.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Lake effect clouds remain across the area with a patch of
drizzle/light rain that continues to effect CAK/YNG. The
precipitation has shown a weakening trend and expect it do diminish
through 10Z. The challenge today will be trying to time when clouds
will scatter out of the various terminals. High pressure will expand
eastward over the area with winds eventually backing from
northwest off Lake Erie to southwest. Low clouds may scatter out
of TOL as early as 08-09Z but will take until closer to 18Z to
scatter out at CLE and possibly as late as 21Z at other NE Ohio
sites. If clouds do scatter out of TOL, can not rule some MVFR or
lower visibilities prior to sunrise.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Saturday night and more likely on
Sunday possibly lasting into Sunday night. Non-VFR possible again
High pressure will expand across the eastern Great Lakes today.
Northwest winds of 10-20 knots on the east end of the lake early
this morning will drop below 10 knots by late morning. Wave
conditions will remain choppy for a few more hours but have
generally dropped below 4 feet so the Small Craft Advisory has
expired. Winds will shift around to the south later today and
increase to 15-25 knots tonight as low pressure tracks through the
Upper Great Lakes. The higher waves will initially be out over the
open waters but as winds take on more of a westerly component we
will see waves start to build in the nearshore waters on the east
end of the lake by Saturday morning. A Small Craft Advisory may be
needed east of Cleveland on Saturday.
Winds will decrease Saturday night as a cold front moves south
across the lake. High pressure will build over the lakes late Sunday
before moving to New England on Monday. Southerly flow will increase
again on Tuesday as another low pressure system passes north of the