Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 270257
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
957 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND OFF THE
EAST COAST SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS SUNDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS THE NE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH OR
NORTHWEST AND WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OF
AROUND 15C SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE MOISTURE
IS THE BEST. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS BASED ON MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND THE 9PM EST TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON SOME OF THE NEW MODEL RUNS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ON
THURSDAY WILL BE SNOW. MADE THAT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST/GRIDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE QUESTIONABLE PRECIP TYPE MAY CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY UNTIL THE
COMBINATION OF COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ARRIVES. FROM THEN ON...PRECIP SHOULD JUST BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
MORE WIDESPREAD MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE SNOWBELT. WITHIN THE SNOWBELT...MUCH OF THE
AREA HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO SEE 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES ON THU WITH
MAYBE UP TO 2 INCHES LOCALLY THU NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR IN ON FRI. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW SO
THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT TO TAPER OFF.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW A GOOD BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT. QPF
GENERALLY IS SHOWN STAYING OVER LAKE ERIE BUT A LITTLE COULD SNEAK
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SO WILL KEEP SMALL CHC POPS GOING.
INCREASED MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT HAS AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NE HALF OF THE CWA FRI NIGHT SO
WILL INCREASE POPS A LITTLE MORE FOR THEN.

THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA ON SAT WHILE INDUCING LIFT. STILL COULD HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIP
ON SAT BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SO BY NOON ALL THE PRECIP
SHOULD JUST BE RAIN. HIGHS ON SAT LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
FOR MOST PLACES. THE SAME PROCESS CONTINUES SAT NIGHT SO WILL KEEP
THE THREAT FOR RAIN GOING BUT AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO APPEAR TO BE LIGHT
DUE TO LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND NOT REALLY ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SHALLOW AND THIS TYPICALLY BRINGS
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE. THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN SYNC ON
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY SUNDAY
EVENING OR SUNDAY NIGHT SO IT WILL GET AS MILD AS IT CAN BE ON
SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 50S. I DOUBT THE COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE QUICKLY ENOUGH ON
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SNOW BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT AND WILL MENTION SNOW
MIXING IN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
TREND IN BRINGING THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR SOUTH BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
A FEW LEFTOVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. WILL MENTION IT JUST IN THE MONDAY
MORNING FORECAST. DRY AND A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH...THEN WARMING UP ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OVER LAKE ERIE TO SHIFT ONSHORE
AT KCLE AND PERHAPS KERI OVERNIGHT BUT PROBABLY NOT MORE THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO.  WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE
NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE. THE
INCREASED GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND
WAVES AND NECESSITATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE LAKE BY FRIDAY EVENING AND WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE
SOUTH. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WITH A RELATIVELY STABLE FLOW...THE
WIND AND WAVES MAY NOT GET TOO LARGE ESPECIALLY IN THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD DROP ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE FLOW VEERING TO
NORTH ON MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS/KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK






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