Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 110908
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
408 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A clipper system will track across the lower lakes tonight dragging
an arctic front across the forecast area.   Lake effect snow will
develop Tuesday and continue through Wednesday afternoon.   A
second clipper will track across the area Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The trough has pushed inland but snow has diminished
significantly so have dropped the advisory for Erie County PA.
Could get up to an inch in higher elevations this morning but do
not expect much in the way of accumulations. Will see a little
snow NW OH this afternoon ahead of approaching clipper system
this afternoon. Expect temps to hover in the lower to mid 30s
most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Continued the winter snow watch for the inland snowbelt through
Wednesday afternoon. Models continue in good agreement tracking
low pressure system, currently located ND/MN border, across the
lower lakes tonight forcing an arctic front across the area.
Widespread light snow will spread across the entire forecast
area tonight, with up to 2 to 4 inches possible higher
elevations of the snowbelt. Could see a lull late Tuesday
morning, but expect snow to intensify Tuesday afternoon as a
strong upper level short wave sweeps across the lake.

The short term begins Tuesday night with models in good
agreement showing low pressure in northern NY and arctic air
plunging into the region in northwest flow behind the system.
There will be ongoing lake effect snow across northeast Ohio and
northwest PA and it should continue heavy at times through the
night. Many positives including extreme instability 850mb to the
lake (BUFKIT), deep moisture and favorable dendrite growth.
Negatives include a short fetch and a quick transit time with
boundary layer flow at 40 knots. Expect a multiband event with
orographic lift a significant contributing factor. Will have
accums Tuesday night roughly 5 to 7 inches. Models pull moisture
east of the area during the morning Wednesday but overrunning
moisture ahead of next low approaching Chicago at 00Z Thursday
will be increasing from the west during the afternoon. Expect
lake effect snow to decrease through the late morning and early
afternoon as moisture moves east however lake effect may pick up
again as winds turn more westerly and moisture increases again
late afternoon. Will have roughly 2-4 inches for the day.
Wednesday night and Thursday low pressure will move east across
the area. Will have likely pops across the snowbelt and chance
pops elsewhere Wednesday night. Thursday chance to slight
chance.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday through Sunday will be dominated by two system.  The first
low moves east across the central lakes Friday.  Enough moisture
gets into the region for chance pops north/northeast.  The second
system moves east across the northern lakes Saturday pulling warmer
and drier air into the region Saturday and Sunday. Expect highs
friday 28 to 32. Highs Saturday and Sunday upper 30s to lower
40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
A trough over lake Erie will push south of the forecast area
this morning. The heaviest snow will be across the snowbelt east
of CLE. Will get a break toward daybreak.

OUTLOOK...-sn likely tonight into Tuesday morning area wide as
as an Alberta Clipper swings across the forecast area. Lake
effect snow will develop across the snowbelt East of Cle Tuesday
and continue into Wednesday night. Another Alberta CLipper is
due Thursday into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Will allow the small craft advisory to expire at 4am but will issue
a gale watch for Tuesday 10AM through Tuesday evening 10PM. Low
pressure will deepen as it moves east across the long axis of the
lake Monday night. Tuesday strong cold advection will spread in
behind the low as 925mb flow increases to 40 to 45 knots. With the
cold advection would expect an efficient momentum transfer so will
take winds to gales Tuesday morning and continue through Tuesday
evening. Expect small craft headlines will then be required through
Wednesday evening or so for slowly diminishing northwest flow.
Thursday through Thursday night expect winds 15 knots or below.
Friday southwest flow will increase to around 20 knots by the end of
the day.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Wednesday
     afternoon for OHZ013-014.
PA...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Wednesday
     afternoon for PAZ002-003.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     LEZ145>149-165>169.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/Mullen/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...DJB/TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...TK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.