Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 301501
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1101 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front across southern Ohio will move north across the
area this morning and settle near Lake Erie this afternoon.
Deepening low pressure over the Plains will move north to
Wisconsin Monday and Ontario on Tuesday. The associated cold
front will move across the local area on Monday. Cooler and
blustery weather will spread across the area behind the cold
front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Continue to anticipate a struggle along the Lake Erie lakeshore
to get the warm air established. Until the front is north, the
lake breeze will essentially dominate. Not sure about Conneaut
and Erie PA getting there and it will struggle from around
Sandusky toward Maumee Bay. Not enough confidence to make any
significant adjustments to the temperature forecast at this
point.

The front is shallow but there is low level convergence in the
vicinity. It will be interesting to see how much convection
might pop up this afternoon as a weak short wave tracks from
the midwest to the central Great Lakes. The ridge aloft is off
the southeast coast and will likely not provide enough capping
to definitively say that nothing will happen. DCape is kind of
high and the freezing level is kind of low so isolated wind and
hail are in play should we get storms with bigger cores. Best
timing might be 4-7 PM in the east, perhaps after 5 PM northwest
Ohio into the night. No other changes for the late morning
update.

Original "Today" discussion...
Showers and thunderstorms ongoing early this morning across the
western half of the forecast area. These will continue to lift
northward across the area through daybreak into mid morning.
Some small hail is possible with these storms, however severe
weather is not expected this morning.

Frontal boundary over southern Ohio will rapidly lift northward
through the day. Temperatures will rise quite a bit with 80s
expected for much of the area. The best chances will be from
Mansfield to Youngstown, where cloud cover will be minimal
through the day. The front should hang up near the lake by the
afternoon, with more cloud cover expected along this boundary
and across northwest Ohio from upstream convective activity.
This may leave lakeshore areas across far NE OH and NW PA with
an easterly/onshore component and resultant high temps 10-15
degrees cooler than inland.

Expecting mainly dry conditions through the morning hours after
ongoing convection lifts north out of the area, Much of the
area may remain dry through the afternoon as well, especially
east of the I-71 corridor. Will maintain slight chance pops
north and west this morning, and chance pops northwest this
afternoon, as unstable conditions in the warm sector could allow
for isolated convection to develop late this afternoon. Also,
upstream convective complex could maintain into northwest Ohio
by late afternoon/early evening as a shortwave lifts northeast
into the Great Lakes, so chance pops warranted.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface low over NW MO will lift northeast into the western
Great Lakes tonight into Monday morning, forcing a cold front
eastward across the area. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to push eastward ahead of the front. Best chances for showers
and storms will be from west to east after 06Z through about 21Z
Monday. Current thinking is severe threat will be minimal with
expected timing after 06Z as the atmosphere stabilizes. If a
line of storms can get going a bit earlier, perhaps a threat of
large hail or an isolated damaging wind gust is possible this
evening. However, timing looks unfavorable at this time for
widespread severe weather.

Front will push east through the area through the afternoon on
Monday. Cooler conditions Will filter into the area behind the
front, with shower chances Monday evening through Tuesday as the
low slowly spins eastward through the Great Lakes. A secondary
cold front will push south into the area Tuesday night, which
may keep showers lingering across NE OH and NW PA through
Tuesday night. Highs on Tuesday will only reach the mid/upper
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Only minor changes this morning as the models continue
to come into better agreement.  An area of low pressure will be
entering the lower OH Valley at the start of the period.  Both the
GFS and ECMWF track this low up the Oh Valley spreading rain across
the local area.  Most of Wednesday should be dry but precip chances
will begin to increase during the afternoon.  Wednesday night
through Thursday look wet and will continue with likely chances most
areas.  The low will move to the East Coast by daybreak Friday and
the precip over the local area should begin to diminish as dry
northeast flow develops.  High pressure will eventually win out by
Saturday finally drying out the entire area.  Temps will be below
normal the entire period but not as cold as yesterdays models
suggested.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
The area is finally just about dry. Stratus and fog persist in
the south but conditions should improve quickly this morning as
winds become southerly behind an advancing warm front.
Conditions in the east and northeast have already improved to
VFR. Not expecting much in the way of precip today except in the
far west toward evening. Central areas will see increasing
precip chances overnight with the far southeast end of the area
likely staying dry through 12z Monday. East winds will become
southeast and then south today. Gusts in the 25 to 30 knot range
are likely in the south today. It may take till 00z for the warm
front to reach ERI. Till then downsloping east flow will
continue.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR and scattered showers possible Monday through
Tuesday night and again Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
East to northeast winds continue on the lake.  Marginal small craft
conditions continue and will let the headline go till later this
morning.  Winds will eventually flip to a more southerly direction
but that probably won`t occur till sometime this evening.  A cold
front is still on track to cross the lake on Monday.  Southwesterly
wind behind the front will become westerly on Tuesday.  There will
be a good push of cold air behind the front and speeds will come up.
Will likely need another prolonged period of small craft headlines
beginning sometime Monday night and likely continuing into
Wednesday.  Winds will flip to an easterly direction on Thursday in
response to the low entering the lower OH Valley.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt/Kosarik
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Kosarik
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Kubina
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Kubina



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