Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 271145
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
745 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017
An occluded front will finish crossing the area early this
morning. The next low center will move across central and
Southeast OH tonight. High pressure building south out of
Canada will be in control Tuesday night through Wednesday. A
system crosses the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
Thursday night through early Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Only a few isolated showers remain early this morning. Front is
pulling east out of the area and the shortwave aloft is lifting
out. Linger a slight chance of a shower through midday for most
of the area and into early afternoon for nw PA...waiting on
weak ridging to put a temporary end to the rain threat. While
there will be few breaks in the cloud cover possible at
times...this will tend to fill back in later this morning/early
afternoon. Then toward evening thicker cloud cover will
overspread the area as the low from eastern OK moves to western
TN/KY. This may bring a shower back to Findlay/Marion/Mt Vernon
Went just a bit warmer than the domestic guidance for today and
sided closer to the ECMWF taking into account the cool bias the
MET/MAV has had lately.
Only tweaks made with the early morning update were minor
changes to sky cover, temperatures first thing this morning, and
highs by a degree or two.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
There is still some difference in timing of the rainfall for
tonight into Tuesday, but most of the guidance brings rainfall
across most of OH tonight and brings it across the rest of the
area Tuesday morning. Thunder a possibility especially across
the southern half of the counties. With the surface low passing
across central/southeastern OH early Tuesday morning winds will
shift to the north. Upper trough axis exits Tuesday morning and
most of the area is expected to dry out. By Tuesday night High
pressure builds across the central Great Lakes and extends
across the Ohio Valley bringing in cooler and drier air for
Wednesday and reinforcing the northerly flow off of the cool
lake. For Wednesday expecting highs in the mid 40s near the lake
to the lower 50s well inland...the coolest day of the week. We
turn the weather over to the next low moving out of the southern
Plains to the southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley for the
remainder of the week. For Thursday with an approaching warm
front, shower chances will begin to increase. Winds will likely
remain east to east-northeast across the lakeshore which will
keep the Toledo area cooler for yet another day.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The models continue to bring a series of upper lows from the
southwestern states that weaken as they track to the Great Lakes.
The next surface low is progged to cross the Great Lakes on Friday.
There is no agreement on the exact track of the low so while there
is good confidence for the threat of showers there is less
confidence on the temperature forecast. Will split the difference on
the high temperature forecast and there is probably more upside than
downside if we are in the warm sector much of the day. Will mention
thunder in the counties from around Mansfield and Akron south.
Showers could linger Friday night and into Saturday, especially
northeast OH and northwest PA. Forecast temperatures a little lower
than guidance on Saturday, especially near Lake Erie and in the
snowbelt with a north to northwest flow.
The models appear to be struggling in differentiating a northern
branch short wave on Sunday and the next upper low ejecting from the
southwestern states. There will likely be high pressure and dry air
at the surface and would just as well keep Sunday rainfree for now.
High temperatures will likely be near normal.
.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Weak front has essentially washed out but a relatively moist
south to southwest flow remains and MVFR ceilings and a few
patches of IFR ceilings will continue this morning. Conditions
should improve to VFR this afternoon as mixing increases and
ceilings rise. More rain showers will spread across the area
tonight with IFR conditions developing as low pressure tracks
toward northern Ohio.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Tuesday. Non-VFR developing again on Thursday
and continuing into Friday.
A weakening front will slide across Lake Erie this morning. South
winds will diminish on eastern Lake Erie while southwest winds could
increase for a few hours on western Lake Erie. Winds and waves
should stay comfortably below small craft advisory criteria.
Low pressure will track south of Lake Erie on Tuesday and winds will
come around from the east backing northeast and north. The forecast
for winds and waves will be just below small craft advisory for
Tuesday. A small craft advisory may eventually be needed Wednesday
or more likely Thursday as the pressure gradient increases between
high pressure over eastern Canada and low pressure tracking across
the plains states.