Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 230114
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
814 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES AND
RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER AIR WILL RETURN
MIDWEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

TRIMMED SOME OF THE COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY AND EXTENDED SOME
OTHERS TO COVER THIS STUBBORN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EVENT. MESO-OBS
SHOW TEMPERATURES NORTHEAST OF STATE COLLEGE HOVERING AROUND OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING WHILE RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SAME LIGHT
SPOTTY RAIN SPEEDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE THE AREA MAINLY NORTH OF
I-80.

HIGH RES MOS IS PERSISTENT IN MAKING OVERNIGHT TEMPS EDGE UP
SLOWLY ABOVE FREEZING SO WE WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST PLAIN
RAIN IN ALL AREAS...BUT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS POCKETS OF ICY
CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER OUR NORTHERN TIER.

GUIDANCE IS ALSO PERSISTENT IN FAVORING MY NORTHERN TIER FOR
CONTINUED LIGHT QPF WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP GOOD SRLY FLOW GOING. EARLY MORNING TEMPS
IN THE 30S SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RUN AT 50F ALMOST EVERYWHERE. THE
SNOWPACK IN THE FAR NW COULD THEN KEEP THEM IN THE 40S. THE
HEIGHTS RISE FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE BRINGS
HIGHER CLOUDS BACK INTO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A WIDESPREAD. CLOUDS
WILL PROBABLY HANG TOUGH IN THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN DEVELOPING NEXT
WEEK. THE 500MB CONFIGURATION WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FULL-LATITUDE
TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S.

PHASING OF SPLIT-STREAM ENERGY WILL YIELD A DEEP 980MB LOW /-3 TO
-4 STD MSLP/ LIFTING NWD THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO SERN CANADA ON
MONDAY...TRACKING TO OUR WEST. STRONG SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF HIGH PWAT AIR INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
MAINLY SUN NGT. THIS HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. SURGE OF WARMER AIR /850MB TEMPS AOA 10C/
WILL BRING HIGHS ON MONDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 55-65F
RANGE...PUSHING TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS AND FINISHING ABOUT 10-20F
ABOVE NORMAL. WARMUP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS FROPA MONDAY
NIGHT USHERS BACK IN COOLER AIR AND RETURN OF WESTERLY FLOW WHICH
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN COLDER TO BELOW AVG TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING AND ESP THE WEEKEND AS THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING PERSISTENCE OF THE ERN CONUS
MEAN TROUGH.

FINALLY...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPING IN THE WRN ATLC DURING
THE WED-THU TIME PERIOD. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WATCHED AS THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MSTR SHIELD MAY CONTAIN SNOW.
SOLUTIONS FROM THE 12Z SAT SUITE COMING IN WITH SIMILAR TRENDS TO
THE 00Z SUITE...BOTH UNFORTUNATELY WITH MIXED SOLUTIONS. GEFS
LARGELY FOCUSED ON A MOSTLY OFFSHORE STORM TO AFFECT THE
FISHES...WHILE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
INLAND SNOWFALL IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT... ONE OF
THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NRN TERMINALS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE-
SPOTTY...WITH ONLY KBFD HANGING ONTO THE SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL END THE CIGS
WILL LIKELY LOWER FOR A SHORT TIME AS THE RAIN HAS MOISTENED UP
THE LOWER ATMOS. BUT FLOW KEEPS MILD AIR MOVING IN AND THIS COULD
KEEP THEM LOW FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. LLWS SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE WHOLE TAF PERIOD. SUNDAY WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO PRECIP -
ONLY KBFD HAS A POSS - BUT IT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN.

TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR
ELSEWHERE.

WED...MVFR/IFR POSS EAST. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ006-011-
012-037-041-042-045-046.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER


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