Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 061815
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
115 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS INTO MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATL TRENDS SHOW MID CLOUDS DISSIPATING AND PEELING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SCT-BKN CI SHIELD REMAINING OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
MILD SW FLOW PUSHING TEMPS NEAR 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS...OR +1-3F
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UNDERNEATH A NARROW SFC
RIDGE SETTING UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE -- IN BETWEEN
DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND CLIPPER LOW
STREAKING INTO NRN MN -- M/CLEAR SKIES/LGT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS SUGGESTS MINS COULD DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FCST
AND MAY ADJUST DOWN BY 1-2F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR AND MILD FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016 CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS
CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN BTWN WX SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS RISK
OF SNOW INTO THE FAR NW ZONES 06-12Z MON. QPF/SNOW AMTS WERE
DERIVED FROM WPC/WWD WHICH IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS /NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IN BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAR WRN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO
NUDGE SLOWER/FASTER AS SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A COOL DOWN AS AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US.

WHAT APPEARS CERTAIN IS WE WILL HAVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER...POSSIBLY SEVERAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT
WHAT STILL IS UNCERTAIN IS IF A SINGLE POTENT LOW CAN BRING A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COHERENT HEAVY SNOW EVENT.

THE GEFS AND ECENS HAVE NOT VARIED FROM THE SCENARIO SHOWN LAST
NIGHT WITH A LOW DEVELOPING OVER VIRGINIA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY...AND THEN MOVING PRETTY MUCH STRAIGHT EAST OFF THE COAST
BEFORE CURLING UP OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. A TRACK
LIKE THAT WOULD SPARE US A "BIG" SNOW STORM BUT WITH THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW...THE MODEL QPF`S ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE OF
TENTHS UP TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS HALF INCH OVER THE COURSE OF 2
DAYS LOOKS REASONABLE...ALONG WITH SNOW TOTALS OF SEVERAL INCHES
IN MANY AREAS.

THE MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN US...DRIVING COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CHUNK OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR DOWN
INTO THE GULF STATES. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT
AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT KEEP US ON THE CHILLY AND
UNSETTLED SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE WITH NO SIG WX. OCNL SFC WIND
GUSTS 15-20KTS...DIMINISHING INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

MON-TUE...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR PSBL IN -SN.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300...DIMINISHING LATE.

THU...A.M. -SHSN TAPERING OFF NW. MVFR TO VFR CIGS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...STEINBUGL


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