Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 010323
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1123 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF A NEARLY EAST- WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL
FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER THAN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. INTERESTING RADAR RETURNS FROM BOTH KBGM AND
KCCX...MOST LIKELY TERRESTRIAL TARGETS (BUGS). SKIES ARE CLEAR IN
THESE AREAS AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SO OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY AND COOLING...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG AS WE`RE NOW IN PRIME RADIATIONAL FOG SEASON.
MINS SHOULD RUN IN THE MUGGY 60S AND L70S AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A SIMILAR DAY IN STORE ON TUESDAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS LIKELY AS
WEAK TO NIL FORCING AND ONLY WEAK BOUNDARIES PRESENT. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT WARM MID-
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL QUITE LOW.

THE HIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP
POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
AS MID LEVELS COOL JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS.
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSE HERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD
MID/LATE WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF VALLEY
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUES AM. LATEST MDL OUTPUT...COMBINED
WITH CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY...IMPLY AT LEAST A 50 PCT CHC OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD/KIPT/KAOO LATE TONIGHT...ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC AT KUNV/KLNS AND NEARLY NO CHC OF SIG REDUCTIONS AT KJST/KMDT.

ANY AM FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY BTWN 12Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A PM
SHRA/TSRA IN VICINITY OF KJST.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KIPT/KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD


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