Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231437
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
937 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE 23.12Z 250-HPA MAP SHOWED A MID TO UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE PERTURBATION
LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ABOUT A 50-60-KT JET STREAK WAS
PASSING OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT THE BASE OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURE ROUGHLY
AT 180-HPA. FARTHER UPSTREAM, AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET. ELSEWHERE
AND OTHERWISE, COLDER 500-HPA TEMPERATURES HAVE ADVECTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTHERN DISTURBANCE /-11C NOW VERSUS
-8C VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO/. AT THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
THE KDDC RAOB WAS SATURATED FROM 700-HPA TO JUST BELOW 500-HPA. THE
PWAT AT 1.43" HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FROM YESTERDAY, WHICH IS
JUST BELOW +2SD. AT THE SFC, LEE TROUGHING CONTINUES WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

INITIALLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS TODAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.
HOWEVER, RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR THAT INDICATE THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
SLIDE EAST OF HIGHWAY 183/281 BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL PERMIT CLOUDS
TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY PREVAILING
BY NOON.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS THE
CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LEE TROUGH TO FURTHER INTENSITY AS IT
STALLS OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
SPREADING BACK NORTH KANSAS. STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION WITH
RESULTANT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN COMBINATION WITH
THE DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG WITH LITTLE INHIBITION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE TROUGH BY EARLY EVENING OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS VIA EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. NONETHELESS,
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER TO HALF
DOLLAR SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GROW
UPSCALE INTO AN MCS BY MID EVENING AND THEN SLIP EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION WILL PASS WELL TO NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AND
LINGER OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE, A
MUCH DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
BY SATURDAY. WITH A WEAK 500MB COLD POOL IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS, ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED CAPE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PROFILE WILL WEAKEN EVEN FURTHER WITH TIME SO THAT SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO DRY OUT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RESULTING IN
NEGLIGIBLE SURFACE BASED CAPE AND HENCE, NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WEST
COAST SYSTEM SLOWLY PROGRESSES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESIDING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AND MAY START TO TAP INTO RICHER GULF MOISTURE. HOWEVER, CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL OCCUR WELL EAST/SOUTHEAST OF WESTERN
KANSAS. SOME PRECIPITATION CAN`T BE RULED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
APPROACHES THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND
ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY; AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE RICHER
MOISTURE MAY GET SHUNTED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF COAST BY THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S, WITH SOME UPPER 70S POSSIBLE BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD, RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE TAF SITES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A MORE
ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 00 AND 06 UTC. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  61  86  60 /  20  60  20  20
GCK  87  61  87  60 /  30  60  20  20
EHA  86  60  87  60 /  20  40  30  30
LBL  87  61  87  61 /  20  40  30  30
HYS  82  59  82  59 /  30  60  20  10
P28  84  60  83  60 /  20  50  30  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH


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