Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 281900

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

A quiet beautiful spring afternoon across SW KS. Only a few
cumulus this afternoon. In a stable airmass, all zones will be dry
through tonight. Temperatures this afternoon within a few degrees
of late May normals (80). Clear tonight and light winds, with
lows Monday morning ranging from upper 40s west to mid 50s.

Memorial Day...A pleasant spring day for the holiday (for the most
part). Gentle NW flow at 500 mb, between a deep closed low over
the Great Lakes and a broad high pressure ridge over the Desert
SW. Most zones dry for most of the day. There will be a gradual
increase in mid layer clouds through the afternoon, along with a
modest increase in instability. 12z NAM drops lifted indices to -4
in the afternoon, along with CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Models show
isolated convection initiating across the western 1/4 of the CWA
late Monday, and a slight chance of thunderstorms is included in
the grids for these zones. With no changes in 850 mb temperatures
forecasted, temperatures on Monday will mirror those observed on
Sunday, within a few degrees of 80. A few thunderstorms will
likely spread eastward deeper into SW Kansas Monday evening, in
response to a weak shortwave arriving in the NW flow. Coverage
will be limited, and severe weather is not expected.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

An extended period of summer-like weather expected this week
through next weekend, with little day-to-day changes in
temperatures, and a chance of a few mainly late day/subsevere
thunderstorms each day.

Gentle NW flow aloft continues Tuesday, with a stubborn strong
closed low over Hudson Bay, and a persistent broad ridge over the
Desert SW. Moisture and instability will be modest, but sufficient
with daytime heating, to incite a crop of isolated late afternoon
and evening thunderstorms. Coverage will be higher in SE Colorado
courtesy of terrain enhancement, and the NW flow aloft will direct
some of this activity into our western counties Tuesday evening.
Rain coverage in the pop grids average 20-30%. In other words,
most of us will stay dry, but they will be out there. While a
strong storm with marginally severe wind/hail can`t be ruled out,
organized severe weather is not expected. No change in airmass
yields no change in temperatures, once again within a few degrees
of 80 Tuesday afternoon.

Same song, next verse Wednesday through Friday. Synoptic pattern
changes little. With the primary jet stream retreating well to our
north, upper air support for thunderstorms will be limited,
restricting their coverage and intensity. Day-to-day thunderstorm
coverage and evolution will come down to topography and the
affects of the previous day`s convection/outflows. Pops near 30%
suffice for now, with little ability to narrow down any focusing
mechanisms well into the future. Gradually with time, the 12z
ECMWF phases the high pressure ridge axis eastward, ending up over
the plains by next Sunday. As such, an upward trend in both high
and low temperatures is expected. Even with the ridge building
aloft, moisture will remain trapped within its circulation, and
the ridge does not appear strong enough to prevent continued
scattered late day thunderstorm potential.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Excellent flying weather through this TAF period, with VFR/SKC
prevailing. A few cumulus possible this afternoon, and increasing
mid layer clouds Monday morning. Light NW winds this afternoon
becoming light and variable tonight. Light N/NW winds expected
Monday near 10 kts or less.


DDC  80  52  80  54 /   0   0  10  20
GCK  79  50  81  51 /   0   0  20  30
EHA  75  47  80  54 /   0   0  20  30
LBL  79  51  82  55 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  79  51  78  53 /   0   0  10  20
P28  81  55  84  57 /   0   0  10  20




LONG TERM...Turner
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