Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 270550
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1150 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 229 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

The remnants of a sfc cold front and associated mid-level shortwave
trough will exit the Northland later this afternoon and early
evening. Most of the overnight hours tonight look to be dry, but
continued cold, as a sfc high pressure ridge translates through the
region. The RAP/NAM model soundings are progging a fairly dry column
tonight before another slug of low- to mid-level moisture advection
arrives by early to mid Monday morning. A push of 850-700 mb layer
warm air advection is progged to generate a swath of light snow,
mainly from just north of the Brainerd Lakes area to Grand Rapids,
and points northeast along the Iron Range into the Minnesota
Arrowhead for Monday. There is still some uncertainty regarding the
exact track of the precipitation that could develop along the warm
air advection, as well as the exact precipitation amounts. The
models have generally shifted the axis of precipitation farther
south than the previous model runs during the day Monday as model
QPF stays pretty much confined to the Brainerd Lakes/Grand Rapids
along the Iron Range corridor. The 26.12z NAM is the most bullish
with the QPF, and in turn the snow amounts, along with the CMC
model, while the GFS/ECMWF models are going drier than the NAM/CMC.
The 26.18z HRRR model was more in line with the NAM and CMC
solutions, so bumped up the QPF compared to the blended guidance
towards the NAM solution. In any case, the QPF amounts appear to be
light in the first place, so it will be difficult to get any
significant snow accumulations Monday. Up to an inch of snow is
possible, with perhaps some isolated higher amounts along the Iron
Range. Otherwise, locations south of Duluth and into northwest
Wisconsin aren`t anticipated to see any precipitation as the better
forcing stays to the north. Still, Monday should be mostly cloudy
across the Northland. Temperatures look to increase Monday as the
sfc warm front associated with the warm air advection makes its way
north, so highs ranging from the lower 30s north to the lower 40s
south are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Model differences are quite large right out of the gate Monday
night. They do agree on the location of an inverted surface trof
over the forecast area. They disagree on the placement and strength
of embedded pieces of energy progged to affect the region ahead of a
short wave trof in the lee of the Rockies. Disagreement with QPF
amounts and placement as well as the ECMWF is mainly dry, which is
consistent with its 00Z/26 run. The GFS has flip-flopped with its
handling of this scenario. Used a blended approach as a result.
The discrepancies grow even larger on Tuesday. Even the SREF and
GEFS ensembles disagree on the surface low evolution/strength and
the amount of QPF. Maintained a blended approach which affects
snow amounts. Tuesday night finds the models coming into a bit
better agreement with the mass fields as the surface low departs.
Some mid and upper level trofiness crosses the region with some
light QPF in northwest Wisconsin. Lake effect processes begin
Tuesday night late as the flow turns northwesterly off of Lake
Superior. Lake effect snow showers persist on Wednesday with a
brief break in the action elsewhere. There is a slight chance of
snow in the afternoon over the western edge of the forecast area
in response to the approach of a long wave trof. As this trof
departs, the next trof right behind it is negatively tilted, but
minimally affect the region. There will be a small window for snow
showers in the evening, mainly over east central Minnesota, while
the lake effect continues. Kept the chance pops for lake effect
snow along the south shore. However, drier air is mixing in with
the northwest flow and will affect snow amounts. Dry elsewhere
Thursday night and Friday with high pressure nearby. Model
differences again Friday night and Saturday with the handling of
an upper trof and its impact on the region. Used the blended
approach for pops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

VFR conditions are expected for much of the Northland TAF sites
throughout the period, although some periodic MVFR CIG`s and
VSBY`s will be possible at a few sites. Warm air advection will
help to establish some light snow in a few areas tonight and into
Monday, although the snow will be fairly minimal for most areas.
The best chance of snow, and resultant reductions in VSBY`s and
CIG`s, should arrive very late in the TAF period, but mainly
afterward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   3  35  24  34 /  20  20  60  70
INL   2  28  12  28 /  10  20  40  30
BRD   7  41  24  35 /  30  10  50  70
HYR   9  42  30  41 /   0   0  50  70
ASX   6  43  28  38 /  10  10  40  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP



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