Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 142354
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
654 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AT 345 PM...IT WAS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. AN AREA OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...GENERALLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AS A TROUGH
WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY
IN THE 50S...ALTHOUGH THERE WERE A FEW LOWER 60S IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WERE BECOMING MORE OPEN CELLULAR AS THE
DAY WEARS ON.

THE WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. DUE TO THE OPEN CELLULAR NATURE OF THE CU FIELD...WE
SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
DROPPED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MOST PLACES BUT MAY NOT HAVE DROPPED
THEM QUITE ENOUGH. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FROST TO MUCH OF
THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SOME MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT IN THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A NW MID LVL FLOW COMBINED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A
QUIET AND COOL WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
EVENING AND STALL ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. LOW POPS ARE INCLUDED
IN THE FCST FOR THIS FEATURE AS BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK
AND DEEP LAYER SATURATION NOT EVIDENT. NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN A FRONTAL BDRY WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA  FROM THE DAKOTAS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO RETURN THUR NIGHT. A LLJ IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS CWA THUR NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT THE FCST INDICATES POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER SUSPECT THAT BY MID WEEK THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
REFINE POPS ONCE THE TEMPORAL AND MAGNITUDE OF THE FORCING BECOMES
MORE DEFINED. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BUT REMAIN SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL HANG AROUND THE
BORDERLAND AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. BRIEF PERIODS OF CEILINGS
AROUND 3 KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN THE KINL AREA. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  60  42  66 /  10  10   0  10
INL  34  60  40  66 /  20  10   0  10
BRD  40  62  41  68 /   0  10   0   0
HYR  38  62  37  66 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  42  61  41  66 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...GRANING






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