Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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055
FXUS66 KEKA 281058
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
358 AM PDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST TODAY
BRINGING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE COAST AND WARMING IN THE
INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE CONTINUES ALONG THE HUMBOLDT COAST
THIS MORNING BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH
OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY
AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT WHILE AT THE SAME TIME NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS TO OVER 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT THE COAST.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
SQUASHING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO THE
REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT THAT ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE TO SEE A SHOWER IMPACT DEL NORTE COUNTY BRIEFLY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR ONCE AGAIN. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL COLD INTERIOR VALLEYS. FROST EXTENT IS
STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT FROST
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN
DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST
OVER THIS LOW RESULTING IN DECENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. DRYING AND WARMING IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...AS
THE THERMAL TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO PUSH OFF THE COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME INTERIOR AREAS AND
APPROACH 70F NEAR THE COAST DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH AND LOW TO DIVE SOUTH OFF THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE THIS LOW COULD BECOME CUTOFF AND DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS TRACK WOULD BE IDEAL FOR
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW AND POTENTIALLY
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...PESKY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN MVFR TO
PERIODIC LIFR CEILINGS ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST TONIGHT...WITH THE
WORST CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED NEAR CEC. THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE...AND WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE MORNING. A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BUILD BACK ONTO THE COAST
DURING THE EVENING AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT ACV
AND AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY/EEL RIVER DELTA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO
RETURN TO BOTH COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND LAST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. AT UKI...SOME SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS MAY DRIFT PAST THE
TERMINAL THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE RELAXED SLIGHTLY FROM THEIR
AFTERNOON PEAK YESTERDAY...THEY REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG AT AROUND
20 TO 25 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KT AT TIMES. AS A
RESULT...STEEP NORTHERLY SEAS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
ADDITION TO A BUILDING 14 SECOND NORTHWESTERLY SWELL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND THIS EVENING...LIKELY
BUILDING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE ANOTHER 5
KT OR SO. AS A RESULT...MARINERS CAN EXPECT ELEVATED TO BORDERLINE
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ALL OF THE WATERS...WITH THE
WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE STORM SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX SLIGHTLY...ALLOWING WINDS
TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO DROP TO AROUND 7 TO 10
FEET. THIS MODEST REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS WINDS
WILL QUICKLY RAMP BACK UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK TOWARDS THE EAST. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE IN A MORE MEANINGFUL WAY THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...AND RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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