Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 251246
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
446 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. INLAND
VALLEYS ARE SEEING SOME FOG AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. THE COAST HAS
SOME OFFSHORE FLOW WHICH IS KEEPING THEM MOSTLY CLEAR AND A BIT
WARMER. THE INLAND VALLEYS WITH FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW TO WARM UP AGAIN TODAY ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND ARES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE COAST WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER. THIS MAY CUT DOWN ON THE INLAND VALLEY
FOG AS WELL. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO LATE
IN THE MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER
APPROXIMATELY THE OREGON CALIFORNIA BORDER. LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...WHILE HEAVIER RAIN IS
EXPECTED IN DEL NORTE COUNTY. THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT AND THE
HEAVIER PUSHES BACK NORTH INTO OREGON. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE
ECMWF AND GEM PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER IN THE NORTH...BUT PUSHES
A SIMILAR AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER MENDOCINO COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FT WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM. THIS FIRST
SYSTEM WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK
TO FALL IN A SHORT ENOUGH TIME FRAME TO BRING MUCH FLOODING. MKK

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR THE WEEKEND THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL SYSTEMS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME SHORT BREAKS...BUT AT THIS POINT IT
IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE OUT. RAIN LOOKS TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF CURRENTLY SHOWING A PARTICULARLY
HEAVY PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME RIVERS TO MONITOR STAGE...BUT THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THEY RECEDE AFTER THE PREVIOUS RAIN EVENT.
LOCALIZED LOWLAND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

TUESDAY MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY 6000 TO 8000
FT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP...BUT WILL START TO FALL WITH THIS LAST
SYSTEM...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 3000 TO 4000 FT ON MONDAY. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BEFORE SNOW LEVELS FALL
SIGNIFICANTLY. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...THE EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DECK OF LOW
CLOUD COVER OFFSHORE AND OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN CA WITH VALLEY FOG
INLAND. CLOUD COVER SHOULD ERODE AWAY BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE, EXPECT SKIES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, HOWEVER, DRYING OF THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. IN ADDITION, EXPECT A RETURN OF VALLEY FOG
FOR INLAND AREAS TONIGHT. KML

&&

.MARINE...TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY OF LIGHT WINDS AS THE
WEAKENING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER HEAD MAINTAINS A WEAK
GRADIENT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS A NORTHWESTERLY
WAVE GROUP SLOWLY SUBSIDES. THEN AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE STARTING LATE
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS REACHING TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR WINDS STEEP SEAS BUT WILL WAIT FOR NEWER MODEL RUNS
TO DETERMINE TIMING. A LARGE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND CAUSE BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE WIND FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND IS A LITTLE TRICKY AS
MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING BETWEEN THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE
OVERALL TREND IS FOR WINDS TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND FLUCTUATE NEAR
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF THESE CONDITIONS IS STILL HARD TO PIN POINT AT THIS
TIME. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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