Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 271737
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
937 AM PST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DELIVERS BRISK AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
TO THE REGION. EVEN COLDER AIR IS IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FREEZE WARNING HAS EXPIRED ACROSS THE NORTH
COAST INTERIOR...REDWOOD COAST...AND DEL NORTE COAST ZONES.
TEMPERATURES THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENTLY COLD
ENOUGH TO FINALLY HAVE A WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FREEZE TO DECLARE THE
GROWING SEASON OVER. THUS FROST AND FREEZE WARNINGS WILL NO LONGER
BE ISSUED ACROSS THESE ZONES FOR THIS WINTER SEASON...BUT HARD
FREEZE WARNINGS (FOR LOWS LOWER THAN 29 DEGREES) WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ISSUED FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WINTER.

THIS HAS BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM FALL AND EARLY WINTER SEASON.
LOOKING AT THE DATA...UKIAH FINALLY BROKE THE FREEZING MARK FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS WINTER SEASON ON THE 26TH OF DECEMBER...THE
LATEST DAY ON RECORD BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF DECEMBER 23RD SET
IN 1995 WITH RECORDS GOING BACK TO 1893. THE ARCATA AIRPORT BROKE
THE FREEZING MARK ON THE 26TH AS WELL WHICH WAS ALSO THE LATEST
DAY ON RECORD BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF DECEMBER 19TH SET IN 1997
WITH RECORDS GOING BACK TO 1992.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE E PAC WILL AMPLIFY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW COOL N FLOW TO CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUN PRECEDED BY A
FEW SHOWERS OVER THE N. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E PAC WILL REALLY
AMPLIFY DURING THIS TIME WITH A CLEAR SHOT OF COLD AIR DOWN THE
WEST COAST FROM NW CANADA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A DEEP
VERY POSITIVELY TILTED TROF FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NV...WITH A CUT
OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER S NV BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. AS
A RESULT...A RIDGE WILL BUILD N OF THE UPPER LOW.

THE COLDEST WX OF THIS EARLY WINTER IS EXPECTED ON TUE AND WED
MORNINGS. FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY STILL MAKE IT TO THE COAST...
ALTHO THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN AN INVERTED SURFACE COASTAL TROF AND HIGH
PRESSURE NE OF THE AREA. IF THIS DEVELOPS...THE COMBINATION OF
MORE LOW-LEVEL MIXING AND SOME DOWNSLOPING MAY MODIFY THE COLD
AIR MASS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
DURING THIS PERIOD. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL HELP MAKE FOR GOOD
AVIATION CONDITIONS TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG THAT
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS LAST NIGHT. EXPECT PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS
AHEAD OF A WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAINFALL TO AIRFIELDS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO ESPECIALLY OVER DEL
NORTE COUNTY. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER WITH THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT
OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. KML

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELAXED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
COASTAL EDDIES WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WITH OTHERWISE NORTHERLY FLOW FARTHER OFFSHORE. NORTHERLY
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BUILD SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA INTERACTS WITH
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TO THE OUTER WATERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AN
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WINDS AND STEEP SEAS HOWEVER
WILL WAIT TO ISSUE ANYTHING WITH ONE OF THE FOLLOWING FORECAST
PACKAGES. BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BUST UP THE RIDGE PATTERN AND ULTIMATELY RESULT IN A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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