Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 251738
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
138 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016
Scattered showers have developed across the SW portion of the
CWFA. Do expect isolated thunderstorms. Have updated the pops to
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1036 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016/
No major changes needed to the forecast. Made some minor tweaks to
the hourly grids.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 744 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016/
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 415 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016/
SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday Evening/...
The current satellite loop shows some high
clouds streaming across the area with a developing frontal system
extending from the western Great Lake States down to central TX.
Moisture will continue to increase across the region from the east
today so will see some isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening. Any storms that
develop today should stay confined to eastern and central portions
of the state. The frontal system developing over the central U.S.
will bring in a nice change in the weather pattern as it is expected
to move into NW ga Monday afternoon. This frontal boundary will
bring increased chances of showers and thunderstorms...but still not
expecting much in the way of severe weather. As this front pushes
east the deeper moisture...better dynamics...and best instabilities
stay north of the state as the tail end of this front drags through
North and central GA Tuesday. We will see a 40 to 60 percent chance
of precipitation but only looking for a 20 percent chance of
thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday evening. This frontal
system should be south of our CWA by 00z-06z Wed as it ushers in a
cooler and drier airmass for the extended.
LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
The long term period begins with a developing full latitude
eastern half of the US trough developing and good agreement among
the extended guidance. The front by Wed morning looks to be
pushing out of the local forecast area but majority of the cool
air remains over the Great Lakes states initially. Still
though...enough of a cool air advective pattern emerges to
allow for temps to plummet to the lower 50s over a large portion
of central GA. Of course all this will depend on the timing of the
front and if it should slow its progression these mins would be
quite a bit warmer.
And so fall begins over the area Wed and continues through the
remainder of the long term period. Guidance in very good agreement
in showing highs at or just above climo but lows some 3 to 5
degrees below with some mid 40s in the offing for far North
Will need to keep an eye on the tropics next weekend into the
following work week as models show a system moving from the
Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico. ECMWF now much slower with
this system still north of the Dominican by 240 hrs while the GFS
already has it over western Cuba. Plenty of time to monitor this
system which has yet to develop.
VFR through the early evening hours. Model soundings are showing
some potential for sct mvfr cigs overnight in the prolonged east
flow. Northern terminal sites should remain precip-free through
tonight. However, a cold front will move through
tomorrow...brining sct shra/tsra in the afternoon and a wind shift
to the NW during the evening.
//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on cigs overnight. High confidence remaining
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 91 67 87 67 / 20 20 40 40
Atlanta 91 70 87 68 / 10 10 40 40
Blairsville 87 64 81 60 / 20 20 60 50
Cartersville 92 68 88 63 / 10 20 40 40
Columbus 93 71 91 69 / 30 20 30 30
Gainesville 90 68 85 66 / 20 20 60 40
Macon 92 68 89 67 / 20 10 30 30
Rome 94 67 89 62 / 10 20 40 40
Peachtree City 92 67 88 65 / 20 10 40 40
Vidalia 91 72 87 69 / 30 20 40 30