Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 181712
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
112 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017



.UPDATE...
Updated for the 18Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 735 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...
As a strong short wave moves across the Great Lakes today...cyclonic
flow will extend southward into the TN Valley. Showers associated
with a frontal boundary have been on-going into southern TN through
the night. The front is expected to push into north GA today. This
will help with the development of convection and it should be
enhanced by diurnal heating. Frontal dynamics and moisture look
limited toward central GA today so the pops have been kept in the
low chance range. Not too confident on how far south into the
forecast area the front will get...however models are consistent
with showing drying into north GA later this afternoon and evening
so pops diminish from the north during that time frame. Saturday
looks a bit more stable and drier for much of north GA...however
instability and moisture linger across the remainder of the area.
Pops have been continued mainly for central GA on Saturday. No big
changes in temperatures except some gradual lowering of dew points
through Saturday for much of the area.

41

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...
The upper level trough continues to swing northeastward Sunday
morning, which allows zonal flow aloft through the day Sunday with
upper level ridging and surface high pressure to set up just east
and northeast of the forecast area. Extended models in good
agreement stalling weakened surface boundary over southeast
portions of forecast area Sunday evening through Monday.

A relatively benign pattern will set up for the beginning of the
week. However there will be enough moisture across the area the
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out
each afternoon and evening. As the aforementioned surface boundary
will act as a focus for afternoon convection, the bulk of any
showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain south of the
path of the Solar Eclipse. Will continue slight to low chance POPS
through the week.

The upper ridging begins to break down on Tuesday and surface high
shifts off the Georgia coast as the next system sets up. Extended
models begin to diverge as impulses move through the flow north of
the forecast area. Weakening front again moves through portions of
Georgia Wednesday into Thursday.

Guidance temperatures showing near normal through the period and
will continue to take a blend.  Temperatures during the
eclipse (Monday) look to stay steady an hour before the maximum
obscurity (between 1pm-2pm), then drop a couple degrees up to 30
minutes after max obscurity (3pm). Temperatures are expected to
rebound quickly after the eclipse. The temperature drop will be
less for those under cloud cover/precipitation. This drop in
temperature is not expected to impact the high temperature Monday
afternoon.

Atwell


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
CU field and scattered light showers/sprinkles will continue this
afternoon, ending from the northwest through the afternoon. Skies
will become clear tonight with patchy fog late tonight. Cu field
will redevelop Saturday morning. Winds will be light westerly this
afternoon, calm/near calm tonight and light westerly again
Saturday morning.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on all elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          92  71  92  70 /  30  20  10  10
Atlanta         90  72  91  73 /  20  10  10  10
Blairsville     84  63  87  64 /  30   5  10   5
Cartersville    90  69  91  69 /  20   5  10   5
Columbus        94  75  94  75 /  20  10  20  10
Gainesville     89  70  91  71 /  20  10  10   5
Macon           94  74  94  72 /  20  20  10  10
Rome            90  68  92  69 /  30   5  10   5
Peachtree City  91  70  92  70 /  20  10  10  10
Vidalia         96  76  94  75 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...17



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