Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 300016
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...GENERALLY IN THE
4K TO 6K FT RANGE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN LOWERING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AROUND 08Z. HI RES LOCAL
MODELS AND HRRR GENERALLY AGREE ON ABOUT 11Z FOR THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE RAIN INTO ATL WITH THE BACK EDGE MOVING OUT AROUND 15Z OR
SO. HAVE ALSO KEPT IFR CIGS IN WITH THE RAIN AND WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE LOWER END VALUES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AM.
WINDS MAY GO 160-180 AT ATL IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING
AROUND TO 200-230 BY 11Z WITH THE RAIN BAND BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AM INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CIGS AND WINDS MEDIUM.
HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  20  70   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  70   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  70  30   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  70  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /   5  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  70   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /   5  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  80  50   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  10  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /   5  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30


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