Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 231900
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
200 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

This forecast period will be another very warm one for late
February, but some changes are on the horizon. After highs well into
the 70s areawide today, even warmer temperatures are on tap for
Friday. High temperates will be in the upper 70s across much of
north Georgia with lower 80s expected in central Georgia. With these
temperatures being more typical for early May, record highs will
likely be reached for at least a couple of the area climate sites
Friday.

A cold front will be quickly approaching the area by Friday night,
which will bring increasing rain chances for north Georgia. The best
overlap of instability and shear will remain to the north of the
state closer to the parent system; however, there will be sufficient
forecast shear and instability for the potential for a few
thunderstorms overnight Friday night. The GFS indicates several
hundred J/kg of CAPE across northwest Georgia between 03z and 09z
Saturday as well as 0-1km bulk shear around 30 knots. Given these
borderline parameters, a couple stronger thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out in far north Georgia, but the overall severe threat is
quite low. This thinking lines up well with the current Day 2
outlook from SPC, which only has a small sliver of northwest Georgia
within a Marginal risk area.

The overall coverage and intensity of these showers and isolated
thunderstorms will quickly wane as they move eastward Saturday
morning. Cooler and drier air will begin to filter into the area
behind the front by the end of the short term forecast period.

RW


.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

No significant change made to the extended forecast grids. Medium-
range models remain in relatively good agreement through the majority
of the period. After a more seasonal and mainly dry weekend, rain
chances pick up again and persist through the majority of next week
as the region remains under a general southwest to west upper-level
flow pattern and on the return side the surface ridge in the western
Atlantic. Please see the previous Long Term Forecast Discussion
below.

20

Prev Long Term Discussion... /Issued 456 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017/

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...
The extended forecast begins with minimal moisture lingering
across the region ahead of next frontal system moving out of the
Ohio river valley. This frontal system moves into NW GA late
Friday night/Sat Morning bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms
to the area. The better dynamics and instability indices stay
well north of the state so only expecting isolated showers and
thunderstorms though Sat morning/early afternoon. This front will
push east of the CWA Sat afternoon clearing things out for
Sunday. Another frontal boundary pushes east out of the central
plains states and moves into West GA Monday. Again...not expecting
much in the way of instability so going with isolated thunder
chances for Tuesday and Wednesday as it lingers over the area.

01


&&

.CLIMATE...


Records for 02-23

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      79 2012     34 1989     57 1922     18 1939
                1980
   KATL      79 1980     32 1901     62 1909     19 1939
   KCSG      83 1996     37 1989     67 1962     18 1963
   KMCN      81 1980     37 1901     66 1909     22 1963
                1909



Records for 02-24

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      81 1930     37 1947     58 1944     19 1989
                                                    1967
                                                    1947
   KATL      77 1982     35 1907     64 1890     17 1989
                                                    1947
   KCSG      81 1930     38 1901     61 1979     21 1989
   KMCN      79 1985     36 1901     62 1961     18 1901
                1930


&&


.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Scattered clouds expected at ATL area sites this afternoon with
heights around 2500-3000 feet through around 19z before lifting to
around 5000 ft through this evening and then clearing. BKN
ceilings near 3000 ft are forecast through the afternoon at CSG
and MCN sites. Early Friday morning, MVFR to potentially IFR
ceilings are possible at ATL area sites before lifting by mid-
morning. Patchy fog is also possible. Winds will trend southeast
this afternoon and continue southeast through the period generally
4-7 knots.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium confidence on MVFR/IFR ceiling development early Friday.
High confidence other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          53  78  57  68 /   0   5  30  20
Atlanta         55  78  56  63 /   0  10  40  10
Blairsville     50  72  49  58 /   5  20  60  10
Cartersville    53  78  52  60 /   0  10  60  10
Columbus        55  80  57  67 /   0   5  20  10
Gainesville     54  75  55  62 /   0  10  50  10
Macon           53  81  57  70 /   0   5  20  20
Rome            52  78  50  59 /   0  10  60  10
Peachtree City  51  78  54  64 /   0  10  40  10
Vidalia         57  81  58  76 /   5   0   0  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...RW


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