Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 132347
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
647 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017



.UPDATE...
Forecast is on track with clear and chilly conditions expected for
the overnight. An upper level trough set to the north will pivot
through the area. With a weak inversion in place, we may see some
elevated winds come down, meaning brief gusts. We will monitor the
the winds upstream, but no impacts are anticipated.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 304 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

No forecast hazards or chc for precip expected in the short term
period. 12Z model guidance and adjacent office forecasts in good
agreement today.

Temperatures in the near term this afternoon about on track but
dewpoint temps several degrees below forecast likely due to deep
mixing. Humidity quite low and near fire weather criteria but with
cool temps and winds less than 10kts have held off on issuing any
products.

High clouds should increase Thurs night but any chc for precip will
hold off until Friday, if it were to occur. Temps should remain near
normal with slightly above normal daytime temps.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Latest model runs do not warrant adjusting much in the way of the
previously thought pops/weather. There continues to be rather
large discrepancies between the GFS and Euro for early next week
with the evolution of the upper trough energy and interacting
moisture field. The GFS continues to be a much less progressive
solution. Still potential for a thunderstorm threat Monday to
parts of the south given a nose of potential instability in a
highly sheared environment so will watch with future updates.
Previous discussion follows...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 330 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017/

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...

No significant changes made to the long-term forecast trends.
Medium-range models remain somewhat static in the large scale pattern
but fairly progressive concerning the smaller-scale features through
the majority of the period. Also continue to see fairly good
agreement between models through the beginning of next week. Some
divergence as we head into the middle of next week. All-in-all,
period starts out cool but dry. Short wave sweeps through Friday, but
better moisture and precipitation remains generally south of the
forecast area. Shift to a persistent southwesterly upper flow pattern
over the weekend brings in a milder and wetter period by Sunday
through late Monday, tapering off some as we head into the middle of
next week.

20

AVIATION...
12Z Update...
VFR Ceilings... No precip... No restrictions to VSBYs expected.
Winds will be the primary concern today. Through the morning a
shift in the wind direction from the NW towards the SW is expected
as wind speeds increase by the afternoon to 8-15 kts with little
gusts. After 00Z, winds should shift back to westerly with wind
speeds decreasing after 06Z to 10kts or less.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

Thiem/01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period as high pressure
remains in control. SW winds will continue through the overnight
under clear skies. Winds may pick up a bit later this
evening/overnight as a trough pivots through. So brief gusts may
occur. Winds will veer to the NW during the morning hours,
slightly increasing by the afternoon 8-12kts. Cloud coverage will
be limited, but may see some mid level clouds across north GA and
high level clouds streaming into the region across far north and
central GA.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low confidence on winds becoming gusty overnight.
High on all other elements.

26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          35  56  34  51 /   0   0   0  10
Atlanta         36  54  35  48 /   0   0   0  10
Blairsville     29  46  25  42 /   0   0   0  10
Cartersville    33  51  30  45 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus        36  60  39  55 /   0   0   5  10
Gainesville     36  51  33  47 /   0   0   0  10
Macon           35  60  37  56 /   0   0   5  10
Rome            32  52  29  45 /   0   0   0  10
Peachtree City  34  57  34  50 /   0   0   0  10
Vidalia         38  61  41  59 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...26


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