Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 011623
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
923 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE CWA...ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE DAY. MOST PLACES HOWEVER
SHOULD REMAIN DRY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE AN
ISOLATED READING APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TAKING THE LIGHT SNOW WITH IT. WILL MENTION ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE EAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA TODAY GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA IN THE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL STAY TO THE
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE WEST. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL SEE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES INTO
MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL HAVE THE DRIER
NORTHERN BRANCH. WITH THE BITTER COLD AIR PLUNGING INTO THE AREA
AND NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING... WIND CHILLS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE
OF REACHING -20 MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THE COLD AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH WITH A COLD CORE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM NUNAVUT THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND DAKOTAS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER
THE ROCKIES AND RUNS DOWN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. A LARGE RIDGE IS PRESENT
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND RUNS FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
INTO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. NORTHERN FLOW RESIDES BETWEEN THESE
TWO LARGE FEATURES AND RUNS THE FRONT RANGE FROM ALBERTA TO
COLORADO.

TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARDS... TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START VERY COLD BUT
THE REST OF THESE PERIODS WILL BE MARKED BY DRY AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPS RISE RAPIDLY FROM 20 BELOW TO NEAR 0
CELSIUS. FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERN AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE
SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WEAK SHORTWAVES
WITH COLD FRONTS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WARM... DRY... DOWN-SLOPE
WINDED CHINOOKS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS AVERAGE WITH TWO FRONTS
CURRENTLY PEGGED AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CHINOOK RIDGES THURSDAY... SATURDAY... AND MONDAY.

GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
MORNING MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SNOW SHOWERS
END. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND
BECOMING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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