Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 121641
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
941 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...

RADAR ECHOES ARE ADVANCING EAST...AS LIGHT SNOW AND/OR A WINTRY
MIX IS EXPECTED TO MAKE PROGRESS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA. INHERITED FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND SO ONLY A FEW TWEAKS
WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A VERY LARGE
HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER MOST
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA AND A DECENT UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
IS DIRECTING A GENERAL NW FLOW OVER NE MONTANA. PLENTIFUL PACIFIC
MOISTURE IS STREAMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOST OF THAT
IS BEING SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE MAKING IT
OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PRECIPITATION REACHING OUR
AREA BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE COLDER AIR STILL IN PLACE TODAY...MANY LOCATIONS
COULD EXPERIENCE A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER RECEIVING AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. CAREFUL
PROCESS OF METHODS TO HELP DETERMINE PRECIP TYPES HAS RESULTED IN
SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
GENERALLY ALONG AND NEAR A LINE FROM PEERLESS THROUGH WOLF POINT
THROUGH GLENDIVE. AS THE NATIONAL LEVEL WINTER WEATHER DESK HAS
NOT YET INDICATED THIS SAME CONCERN FOR THIS AREA...CHOSE NOT TO
PROCEED WITH ANY HEADLINE ADVISORY PRODUCT...BUT RATHER MENTION
THESE CONCERN HERE AND IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. NEXT
SHIFT WILL NEED TO RE-ASSESS TO SEE IF THOSE CONCERNS ARE STILL
VALID.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AND A RETURN TO THAWING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NE MONTANA DURING THE DAY. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WITH THE
NEXT PACNW DISTURBANCE DURING THIS TIME WOULD RESULT IN RAIN
ONLY...BUT DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS...SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS
COULD SEE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO EASTERN
MONTANA. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR EAST TO BRING THIS FRONT BEFORE
BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY. GFS IS FURTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF WITH
THE FRONT AND THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL MEAN THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AS MODELS HAVE DECENT MOISTURE. THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
WILL LINGER OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP.

THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA.

THE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FLOW
ALOFT TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC. THURSDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY
COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. FORRESTER



&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
SPINE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA. A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY KEEPING
CLOUDS AND SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR WITH SCT AREAS OF IFR.

WX: WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW THAT MAY MIX WITH FREEZING
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING.

WIND: CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND STARTING OUT UNDER 10
KNOTS THIS MORNING AND THEN EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



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