Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 301445 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
845 AM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast through Mon...

Showers and thunderstorms have fired up a bit earlier than
expected over southern Alberta this morning. And with high-based
cumulus across north-central Montana this morning, coupled with a
dry- line, it makes sence that there would be an increased chance
of thunderstorm later this afternoon across the western and into
the central zones. The RAP and HRRR advertise this idea. Went
ahead and increased pops accordingly. Rest of forecast looked
good. TFJ

Previous Discussion:
Upper low over British Columbia and diffluent flow into Alberta
generating thunderstorms over the Canadian Rockies early this
morning. These storms will move out into the Canadian prairies
through the day and flow pattern should keep them north of the
border. Additional storms will generate through the day but with
upper low dropping south, could see the storms slip across the
border and track along the hiline tonight.

As the upper low moves into Alberta on Sunday, the surface dry
line/cold front pushes through eastern Montana. By afternoon
expect this feature to set up near the North Dakota border. This
boundary will be the focus for thunderstorm development by late
in the afternoon. While severe weather is possible over extreme
eastern Montana, consensus continues that any developing storms
will quickly move into North Dakota.

A little cooler and drier weather is expected on Monday with the
upper low slowly moving into Saskatchewan. Ebert

.LONG TERM...Mon night through Sat...
Latest 00z models indicate that an upper ridge over the Northern
High Plains Monday night will shift east into the Dakotas by
Tuesday as aa shortwave trough/closed low digs into northwest
Montana. THis will allow for increased chances for showers and
thunderstorms across the CWA. Chances may spill into the midweek,
particularly nearest the Canadian border.

An upper ridge looks to become firmly established late in the week
allowing for large scale subsidence and therefore drier and warmer
temperatures with rising heights. Highs will once more reach the
the 80s to near the 90 degree mark by about Friday. Maliawco



A weak upper level ridge moves over Northeast Montana today to
bring mostly dry conditions based on the northwest flow aloft and
the lack of strong convective parameters. So expect limited
chances for an isolated thunderstorm to affect any terminal
today. Winds will be at 5kt to 15kt from the southeast today with
stronger the winds in the west.

Sunday a broad upper trough pushing through Western Canada will
send a cold front through the local region bringing a better
chance for thunderstorms. Gusty northwest winds of 10kt to 20kt
will develop behind the cold front in the afternoon.




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