Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 200859
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
259 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM NEW MEXICO THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA AND UP INTO THE SOUTHERN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. AN
EQUALLY LARGE TROUGH EXISTS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND JOGS
NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE COASTLINE
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SET BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES WITH
A SOUTHERN FLOW ALOFT.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN INFLUENCE
WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD DRIFT. THIS WILL GENERATE CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE THE TROUGH WILL STEP ONSHORE AND MOVE INLAND.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... RIDGE WILL EXIT
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW SOUTHERN FLOW ALOFT TO KICK
IN. A STRONG JET MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SPINNING UP A
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEES SURFACE TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MORPH INTO A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LIFT DUE TO THE JET MAX IS
LOOKING TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH WITH THE NEW MODEL RUNS AND WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. PLACEMENT OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS IS DIFFERENT BY ABOUT 100 MILES DEPENDING ON MODEL. SPEED
OF THE JET WILL MOST LIKELY KICK OUT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
RAPIDLY PROHIBITING WETTING RAINS.

WEDNESDAY... BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ARE AND
SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT EARLY IN THE MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO STRENGTHEN
DURING THE DAY BUT DO NOT YET LOOK WORTHY OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
DAY TIME HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
GAH

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE
PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FLOW REMAINING NORTH
OF THE BORDER AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY WITH TROF DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO INCREASED IN RESPONSE. UPPER
WAVE LIFT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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