Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 270242

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
842 PM MDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Fri...

Evening Update: Cloud cover was reduce across NE MT this evening,
precipitation chances were limited to mainly southwest Phillips,
and Petroleum Counties overnight with mixed precipitation,
freezing rain is not anticipated.

Cut-off low is forecast to remain to the north of the forecast
area in southern Alberta and SW Saskatchewan Canada with another
weak trough feature pushing west across the northern Rockies of
MT, with minimal impacts to portions of Petroleum and SW Phillips
counties and perhaps some of the showers spilling into western
portions of Garfield County. The showers will feature mixed rain
and snow showers, flurries and sprinkles. tec

Previous Discussion...Broad upper trough over the western and
central portions of North America will continue to provide cool
and unstable conditions through Thursday. An upper low over
Alberta/western Sask will help kick up daytime showers over
central Montana that are expected to dissipate as they move into a
drier airmass over eastern Montana.

Clouds dissipated more than expected today so some model
solutions may be too wet. Weak upper ridging will protect the
eastern zones from precipitation and in fact may not see much
cloudiness. TFJ

.LONG TERM...Fri night through Wed...
Few changes were made to the inherited long term forecast other
than to trend toward latest consensus model blends. The large
upper trough over the western CONUS will shift east and close off
across the Central U.S. This will lead to rising heights across
eastern Montana and a gradual warm up amid a continuing
progressive weather pattern with small scale features embedded in
the flow driving occasional shower chances. A notable shortwave
early next week may enter into an unstable airmass to provide some
thunder chances. Maliawco

Previous Long Term Discussion...

The extended forecast period will be dominated by the large
upper-level low pressure trough pattern draped across most of the
CONUS with many smaller-scale low pressure centers and short-wave
trough spinning and embedded within that flow. These smaller-
scale features will determine the sensible weather in store for NE
Montana through this weekend and into the beginning of next week.

Thankfully, we can expect temperatures to become slightly warmer
than we have recently experienced. The best chances for
accumulating rain will be Sunday evening through Monday morning
with the passage of a cool frontal system from the west and again
with some more disorganized showers arriving from the north on

Enough warm, moist air and some instability line up with the
precip by Monday to entertain the though of some thunderstorms,
but the timing of the daylight hours with the precip seems off.
Will keep it out of the forecast grids for now until confidence




Flight Conditions: VFR.

Synopsis: Upper trough extending into central Montana will keep
clouds and shower chances to our west. VFR clouds will move across
the TAF sites at times.

Winds: From the east-southeast 10-15 kts, strongest at KGGW.





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