Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
FXUS65 KGGW 251518 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
918 AM MDT SUN SEP 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Tue...
Sent an update this morning merely to make small adjustment to the
forecast grids for toady/tonight based on the latest
immediate/short/near term model consensus which mainly affected
sky cover and winds.
Previous short term discussion: A strong low pressure system
currently centered over southern Manitoba with an upper low over
North Dakota will continue to move to the northeast today.
Remaining band of rain associated with this system will exit
Northeast Montana early this morning.
Surface high pressure will build into Eastern Montana today with
mostly sunny skies. Northwest winds will continue but speeds will
not be as strong as they were yesterday. Will cancel Lake Wind
Advisory with forecast issuance. Sunshine will allow for warmer
High pressure tonight will allow for clear skies and light winds.
With moist ground from recent rains, may see patchy fog develop
Upper ridge builds into Montana for Monday and Tuesday with mostly
clear skies and a warming trend. Forrester
.LONG TERM...Tue night through Sun...
The very latest 00z guidance continues to point toward a warmer
and largely dry weather pattern over the CWA for much of the
upcoming week. A large upper level ridge over the area will
provide large scale subsidence and associated height rises,
leading to such conditions.
Toward the end of next week and into the weekend do expect the
ridge to shift east towards the central U.S. In turn, flow aloft
will orient from the southwest while an upper trough digs into the
Pacific Northwest. Any embedded shortwaves that track through the
region may produce some shower activity given associated PVA and
therefore dynamic forcing for ascent. Specific timing of
precipitation chances remains a bit of a question mark at this
time however due to uncertainty at larger time scales. Maliawco
VFR conditions are expected across area terminals today. Winds
are expected to be from the northwest at 10 to 15 kts for much of
the day with gusts as high as 20 kts, particularly from KSDY to
KGDV where a few higher gusts are possible. Winds will become
light and variable overnight. Maliawco