Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 311023
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
423 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG ON IN THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
SHOULD BREAK UP AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE ROCKIES
TODAY. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TODAY WITH STRONG
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
AND THE DISSIPATING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GET A GOOD BOOST TO
TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

WINDS EXPECTED TO EASE TONIGHT WITH A RELAXING OF THE GRADIENT AS
THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE BEGINNING FORMATION OF A LEE SIDE LOW
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WEST COAST TROF. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER LOW LIFTING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

STORM SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON POSITIONING. CURRENT SOLUTIONS
KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL MONTANA WITH WARM DRY
AIR BEING PULLED NORTH ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES
AND FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN. EBERT


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A 00Z RUN OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WITH A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAY SUPPORT A MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS THIS SYSTEM
ABRUPTLY MOVES NORTHEAST...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FAST MOTION...DO
NOT SEE SUPPORT FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION. RIGHT NOW THE LITTLE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND PLACES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SUCH AS OPHEIM
STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE AT SEEING LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE
SYSTEM TRANSLATES FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT IT LOSES INFLUENCE ON THE
CWA. HAVE TRENDED POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS DOWN SOME WITH THIS
PACKAGE GIVEN MODEL TRENDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST...HOWEVER...AM
CAUTIOUS GIVEN THAT THIS PORTION OF THE EVENT IS STILL A FEW DAYS
AWAY AND MODEL SOLUTIONS CAN CERTAINLY WOBBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
CYCLES. CONFIDENCE WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE IF FUTURE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF MONTANA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WILL HAVE AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES
DURING THE PERIOD AND MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS FOR NOW AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL OTHER THAN SUBTLE AND
MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVES THAT MAY BE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER
FLOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
THOUGH HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY STREAM ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AT
TIMES. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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